Jake White: How I'm sure Dave Rennie feels going into second Test

I have no doubt Dave Rennie will be feeling very confident about this Second Test. Even with the Wallabies, who didn’t always prosper under his stewardship, the one team he fared well against was South Africa.

So he must be feeling pretty chipper right now. He hasn’t lost a game as All Blacks coach and he’s beaten Rassie in four out of their five games against each other. Which other coach has a better record against Rassie? I’m struggling to think of one.

Of course, coaches are like players. They like to feel confident against the man they’re pitting their wits against. It’s like Shane Warne dominating Daryl Cullinan and outfoxing him in the psychological stakes. Rennie’s paymasters will be very happy to see that, right now at least, he seems to have the measure of Rassie in outwitting South Africa. As I’ve mentioned, Rennie has been around the block. As a personality, he’s taciturn, doesn’t give too much away and has a bit of a poker face when the TV cameras pan to him. He’s certainly not overawed or cowed by a double-World Cup winning coach.

To date, what Rassie had tended to do and done really well is win the pre-match narrative and get what he wants from the build-up. You know, one week he announces the squad early, the next he leaves people speculating and then he makes mass changes, or throws a curveball selection, but now he’s facing an older senior statesman, who has runs on the board. He’s not interested in jousting or getting sucked into a verbal battle. Rennie’s silence has been golden and he’s not taking the bait. Don’t forget, he has Graham Henry in his ear, who is 79 and is like a Kiwi Yoda in his wisdom. It’s hard-worn experience you cannot manufacture. You have to applaud NZ Rugby for that appointment. They stick to their guns and I admire them for that. They don’t pick players playing abroad. Full stop. Take Richie Mo’unga. He has had to wait, even though they’ve clearly needed him. He’s a great player and the 10 they need going forward, but the rules are not for bending. Unless you play locally, you don’t play for the All Blacks.

Fixture

Internationals

South Africa

08:10

29 Aug 26

New Zealand

All Stats and Data

Yes, some may call them too traditional, but they make the big calls when they have to. Remember it took guts change Scott Robertson halfway through a World Cup cycle. He’s the most successful Super Rugby coach of all-time, a former All Black and a popular guy, but they decided for the betterment of New Zealand rugby and the country as a whole whole, they needed to change. They did it with Ian Foster in 2022, by jettisoning Brad Mooar and John Plumtree. As traditionalists, it’s about making the tough calls. That’s the legacy they’ve had for 134 years. It’s in their DNA. If they deviate too far from it, they will lose what makes them special.

So, the onus is very much on Rassie to wrestle back the momentum this weekend. As for the squad selection for the game, we will only know at the end of the four-Test Series whether it was planned. Rassie has historically thrown the dice so this week’s much-changed squad is no departure. Only those in his close inner-circle will know whether he’s panicked or whether it was pre-planned.

It’s a blow that Handre Pollard has pulled up and Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu has replaced him, with Manie Libbok coming onto the bench. The style would have been much more predictable and that’s no bad thing. Elsewhere, the bench is older, too. Take Deon Fourie. He is 39 and it’s remarkable he’s on the bench, but for me it’s a risk. Malcolm Marx played 80 minutes last week and ideally, he’d go again this weekend and Fourie would come on in Siya’s place as he’ll be short on match fitness. You certainly can’t expect Marx to go again on four consecutive weekends.

Another selection that furrows my brow is picking Andre Esterhuizen as a loose-forward, which is why he’s named at No 20, when it’s more likely he’ll come on at centre. I don’t understand why he doesn’t just keep it simple, name him at centre, and switch him to the backrow, when required.

Last week, losing Kurt-Lee Arendse early on and Cheslin Kolbe in the second-half really bit him. By Rassie’s own admission, he said he got his combinations wrong, so having put his hands up. Indeed, you’d have thought he would have gone back to a tried and tested selection strategy. Of course, history tells us that Rassie is a gambler, a risk-taker and to be fair to him, it’s mostly worked. When you’re winning, there’s nothing to worry about but you have to accept that there will be times when it will blow up in your face, as it did in Johannesburg.

As for the mood, I can tell you there was shock, not at the result, but the nature of the loss. To lose by 17 points and five tries to one definitely wasn’t what they expected. It happened too easily and honestly they could have shipped more. The game turned on that scrum penalty in the 55^th minute and that’s where the game was won. Other teams would have been bullied into submission and folded but there’s plenty of fight in this All Blacks team and the Boks supporters would have seen that. Over the last three or four years, the fans have been conditioned to watching the Springboks taking the scrum, seeing a yellow card being brandished for the opposition and a likely penalty try. Net result; game over. The South African crowd saw a different picture to what they were used to. They fronted up. Take that thunderous double tackle on Pieter-Steph du Toit. It meant something.

To emerge victorious, I agree with Steve Hansen, who said the All Blacks have to be desperate because South Africans thrive on being an underdog. It’s part of their psyche. They love a rebound or a big reaction. If the All Blacks show that desire, they could nick it, otherwise, I expect the Springboks to strike back.

The difficulty of modern-day refereeing

I thought the Matthew Carley performed well but it’s generally accepted that the ‘perfect game’ doesn’t exist because after every encounter, the losing coach will find one, two, three or four technical reasons why the call went against him. If the game is won, it’s quickly forgotten about. To give you some context about how hard taking the whistle is, I remember reading a while back Nigel Owens saying he made around 240 decisions during a Test. To be clear, that’s not blowing the whistle every time, it’s deciding what decision to take next. With my basic maths, he’s essentially computing every 20 seconds what to do. This at a time when 46 explosive humans of varying heights and weights are careering around the pitch, moving at speed into collisions over 80 minutes. You can’t tell me it’s easy being the man in the middle. As the shape of the game evolves and you’re seeing higher ball-in-play time, quicker ruck ball and fitter athletes, that number will only increase. It’s a tough gig.

An example of that difficulty came on the weekend, with the Marco van Staden yellow card on 70 minutes. For me, officials with years of Test experience saw something completely different and other infringements could have seen the decision going the other way. It happened so quickly that they didn’t verbalise the same thing. That just shows you how difficult it is. That’s why France have a full-time referee in Jerome Garces the management staff working with them, or Jaco Peyper working with the Boks. Theoretically, teams are seeing the importance of having someone that has been in that situation and understands the pressure and where you can find an edge over your opposition.