Ireland's worst-case RWC 2027 pool draw is bruising beyond belief

Whatever happens in Wednesday’s RWC 2027 draw, Ireland will have to take a different path if they’re going to achieve their Holy Grail of a Rugby World Cup semi-final due to the change in format.

Now expanded to 24 teams, the tournament will feature six pools of four teams as opposed to four pools of five and the introduction of a round of 16. The first-ever men’s round of 16 will see the winners of Pool A, B, C and D play the four best thirds, winners of Pool E and F will face the runners-up from Pool D and B, with the runners-up in Pool A and C to meet the second-placed teams from Pool E and F.

Whether this plays into Ireland’s hands remains to be seen, as the draw for RWC 2027 now that the bands are known is entirely random, other than host nation Australia are guaranteed to be in Pool A. As one of the top six-ranked teams in the world, though, Ireland are locked into band one and, as such, will be favourites to finish top of their pool irrespective of the teams paired with them from bands two, three and four when the draw takes place, live on RugbyPass TV, in Sydney, on Wednesday 3 December (09:00 GMT).

However, as every Irish rugby fan knows only too well, nothing is straightforward when it comes to Rugby World Cups. Ireland have played in all 10 tournaments to date and have made the quarter-finals eight times. But, on each occasion, that is where their journey has come to an end.

With Scotland, Italy and Wales in band two, there’s a 50:50 chance of Ireland getting a fellow Six Nations team. Ireland have faced all three before in the pool stages of a Rugby World Cup. Their first-ever Rugby World Cup game was actually against Wales in Wellington in 1987 and other than being historic, it was very forgettable, Wales winning a dour contest 13-6.

While Wales will have hoped to have improved hugely by the time the tournament kicks off in 22 months’ time, drawing them, Scotland or Italy, will hold no fears for Ireland. Ireland laboured to a 16-9 win against Italy at the Olympic Stadium in London a decade ago, but have not lost to the Azzurri since in any competition in 13 matches, while they have comfortably dealt with Scotland in the pool stages of the last two Rugby World Cups.

So which team from band two are they likely to fear most? Australia obviously have the advantage of playing at home but Fiji, who they have never played at a Rugby World Cup before, would be a new and very dangerous proposition. Ireland put 50 points on Fiji in the 2024 Autumn Nations Series, but if they catch them at the wrong time, after a relatively short turnaround in fixtures, for example, it is not beyond the realms of imagination to see Fiji causing an upset.

Dropping down into band three, Ireland probably won’t want to be reminded of their past encounter with Rugby Europe’s most dominant team, Georgia. As well as being the highest-ranked team in band three, the Lelos will be able to call on the spirit of 2007 when they nearly pulled off one of the biggest shocks in the tournament’s history. Georgia were still finding their way on the biggest stage at France 2007 yet they pushed Ireland all the way in Bordeaux, only losing 14-10.

At the time, it was Georgia’s narrowest margin of tournament defeat and a first-ever Rugby World Cup win could have been theirs for the taking if Merab Kvirikashvili hadn’t missed a penalty and four drop goal attempts. Georgia appear to have stagnated a bit of late, but their strength lies in scrummaging, an area where Ireland look suspect. Spain, Uruguay and Chile are teams on the up, it would seem, so USA, who Ireland always have the beating of, would be the plum draw from band three.

If there is one team in band four that anyone wants to avoid it is Samoa. Yes, they have had a terrible year, slipping to their lowest-ever ranking of 19th. But by the time Rugby World Cup 2027 comes around, they could easily be galvanised by the arrival of some dual national internationals with bundles of big game experience, such as Manu Tuilagi.

Four years ago, Portugal might have had a case for inclusion, given their fluid attacking style would have likely caused an ageing Irish squad problems. But it’s impossible to argue the case for Os Lobos this time around after they suffered their heaviest-ever Test defeat (106-7) at the hands of a weakened Ireland in the summer.

Any of the rest should be cannon fodder for Andy Farrell’s men, although Zimbabwe’s run-it-from-anywhere approach could make life uncomfortable for a squad whose average age could be around 32 by the time the next Rugby World Cup kicks off. Romania and Canada have experience at this level, so you’d have to say that tournament debutants, Hong Kong China, who arguably had the easiest qualification route, will be the ones Ireland would prefer to face.

If Ireland’s worse-case scenario did pan out, it would present them with three matches high on physicality and a bruising examination of their title credentials.

Ireland’s worst-case scenario for the Rugby World Cup 2027 Pool Draw:

Ireland
Fiji
Georgia
Samoa

Ireland’s best-case scenario for the Rugby World Cup 2027 Pool Draw:

Ireland
Scotland
USA
Hong Kong China