How important is discipline? Super Rugby's playoff teams by the numbers
The Super Rugby finals kick off this weekend with the best attacking teams in the competition favoured to have it all their way in the first round. That’s all well and good, but finals footy is finals footy, and as Scotty Stevenson discovers, we may need to have a conversation about discipline, too.
You never want to leave the result in the hands of the referee. So goes one of rugby’s more timeless adages. Rugby’s history is chock-full of results that turned on a last minute penalty call – or non-call as more recent events would remind us – and there are plenty of gnarly old veterans still harbouring various resentments at match officials who rightly or wrongly robbed them of their shot at immortality.
What we do know is that when it comes to finals time, and teams are puckered up tighter than a bullfrog’s sphincter, discipline becomes a coach’s catch-cry. No playoff team, regardless of how many buckets of points they have scored during the regular season, can afford to let their guard down in a do-or-die match. Scoreboard pressure is a very real thing; conceding momentum-shifting penalties in play-off games is a recipe for disaster, and it’s the New Zealand sides most at risk of being on the wrong side of the penalty equation.
Before we get to that, some context. Firstly, it’s not as if teams in Super Rugby are renowned for playing for penalties. Of the 1,496 penalties earned inside opposition territory during the regular season, just 539 were used as goal-scoring attempts. Of those attempts, 426 were successful. Simply put, Super Rugby teams converted just 28% of all opposition half penalties into three-point plays.
A breakdown of the playoffs teams looks like this:
All up, the playoff teams converted just 27.7% – 189 of their 680 earned penalties in opposition territory – into three-point plays, a tick under the competition percentage. Remove the Sharks – inarguably the most enthusiastic penalty-kicking team off them all, and that figure drops to just 24%.
This could be an indication that teams would rather attempt to convert penalties into try-scoring chances – especially in the case of the Hurricanes who converted a lowly 11.8% of their earned penalties into three points. However, what is noticeable is that New Zealand teams are behind all other sides in their ability to win valuable penalties in opposition territory. Note how the Crusaders, Highlanders, Hurricanes and Chiefs are the bottom four teams.
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If you flip that equation and look at the penalties each New Zealand team has conceded in their own half, the Crusaders sit on 83, the Hurricanes on 84, the Chiefs on 87, and the Highlanders on 71, making them the only New Zealand side that wins more penalties in opposition territory than they concede in their own.
That is a trend that continues through into the season’s total penalty differential. As you can see in the following breakdown, the New Zealand playoff sides have conceded more penalties this season than they have earned.
If we look at every other team in the playoffs, the story is the complete opposite. The Brumbies, Lions, Sharks and Stormers all boast a positive penalty differential this season.
We can look further at the specific types of penalties, too. At the breakdown, it is once again the New Zealand sides who boast the worst penalty differential this season, with three of the four in negative territory and only the Hurricanes in the positive.
The same story is again illustrated at the scrum, where all but one New Zealand team have conceded more penalties than they have earned. The Crusaders and Stormers (+12) have the best scrum penalty differential this season, with the Lions (+9), and Brumbies and Sharks (+6) also in the positive. The Chiefs (-2), Highlanders (-4) and Hurricanes (-11) are the worst playoff teams in terms of scrum discipline this season.
Will any of this have a bearing on the playoff results? It has the potential to, especially in a tight contest. There is no doubt the New Zealand teams in particular will be focussed on reducing their penalty counts this weekend. Regardless of whether teams take shots or not, penalties have the effect of stifling flow, especially when a team is looking to attack.
That said, let’s return to that original adage. We’ll leave you with a look at the try differential this season and let you make your own conclusion about which teams will advance to the semifinals.
All numbers supplied by 3N Rugby
Comments on RugbyPass
Wow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
1 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
12 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
1 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
1 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
4 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
16 Go to commentsJake White is a brilliant coach and a master in the press. This is another masterclass in media relations and PR but its also a very narrow view with arguments that dont always hold water. White wants his team to win, he wants the best players in SA and wants his team competitive. You however have to face up to the reality of a poor exchange rate and big clubs with big budgets. SA Rugby cant compete and unless it can find more money SA players will keep leaving regardless of Springbok eligibility and this happened in 2015 - 2017. Also rugby is not cricket. Cricket has 3 formats and T20 cricket is where the money is at. When it comes to club vs country the IPL is king but that wont happen because the international calendar does not clash with the club calendar in rugby. So the argument about rugby going down the same path as cricket is really a non-starter
16 Go to commentsNZ rugby seem not to have learnt anything from professional rugby. Super rugby was dying and SA left before they died with the competition. SA rugby did a u turn on their approach to international players playing overseas and such players are now selected for Bok teams. As much as each country would love to retain their players playing in local competitions, this is the way the world is evolving my friends. Move with it or stay 20 years behind the times. One more thing. NZ rugby hierarchy think they are the big cheese. Take a more humble approach guys. You do not seem to have your players best interests at heart.
3 Go to commentsBeaches? In Cardiff? Where?
1 Go to commentsHe is right , the Crusaders will be a threat. Scott Barrett, ( particularly), Fergus Burke , Codie Taylor, ( from sabbatical) etc due back soon for the Crusaders. There are others like Zach Gallagher too. People can right the Crusaders off, Top 8 , here we come !!
1 Go to commentsWe will always struggle for money to match the other sides but the least the WRU can do is invest properly in Welsh rugby. Too much has been squandered on vanity projects like the hotel and roof walk amongst others which will never see a massive return. Hanging the 4 pro sides out to dry over the last decade is now coming back to bite the WRU financially as well as on the pitch. You reap what you sow.
1 Go to commentsWhat do you get if you cross a doctor with a fish? A plastic sturgeon
14 Go to commentsWhat happened to feleti Kaitu’u? Hasnt played in a while right?
1 Go to commentsGregor I just can’t agree with you. You are trying to find something that just isn’t there. Jordie Barrett has signed until 2028. By the end of that he would have spent probably 11-12 years on Super Rugby and you say he can’t possibly have one season playing somewhere else. It is absurd. What about this scenario, the NZR play hard ball and he decides to leave and play overseas. How would that affect the competition. There seems to be an agenda by certain journalists to push certain agendas and don’t like it when it’s not to their liking. I fully support the NZR on this. Gregor needs to get a life.
3 Go to commentsHope he stays as believe he can do a great job.
1 Go to commentsMake what step up? Manie has a World Cup winner’s medal around his neck and changed the way the Springboks can play. He doesn’t have anything to prove to anyone. The win record of the Boks with him in the team is tremendous. Sacha can be wonderful and I hope he has a very succesful Bok career, but comparing him to Manie in terms of the next Bok flyhalf is very strange. Manie is the incumbent (not the next) and doing pretty incredibly.
4 Go to comments00 😍 U
1 Go to commentsSabbaticals have helped keep NZ’s very best talent in the country on long term deals - this fact has been left out of this article. Much like the articles calling to allow overseas players to be selected, yet can only name one player currently not signed to NZR who would be selected for the ABs. And in the entire history of NZ players leaving to play overseas, literally only 4 or 5 have left in their prime as current ABs. (Piatau, Evans, Hayman, Mo’unga,?) Yes Carter got an injury while playing in France 16 years ago, but he also got a tournament ending injury at the 2011 World Cup while taking mid-week practice kicks at goal. Maybe Jordie gets a season-ending injury while playing in Ireland, maybe he gets one next week against the Brumbies. NZR have many shortcomings, but keeping the very best players in the country and/or available for ABs selection is not one of them. Likewise for workload management - players missing 2 games out of 14 is hardly a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Again let’s use some facts - did it stop the Crusaders winning SR so many times consecutively when during any given week they would be missing 2 of their best players? The whole idea of the sabbatical is to reward your best players who are willing to sign very long term deals with some time to do whatever they want. They are not handed out willy-nilly, and at nowhere near the levels that would somehow devalue Super Rugby. In this particular example JB is locked in with NZR for what will probably (hopefully) be the best years of his career, hard to imagine him not sticking around for a couple more after for a Lions tour and one more world cup. He has the potential to become the most capped AB of all time. A much better outcome than him leaving NZ for a minimum of 3 years at the age of 27, unlikely to ever play for the ABs again, which would be the likely alternative.
3 Go to commentsJake White talks more sense than anything I've read in the last 5 years. Hope someone's listening.
16 Go to comments