LONG READ How the new-look Brumbies are confounding Super Rugby Pacific expectations

It’s easy to take one win in isolation and draw all kinds of wrong conclusions from it. But every now and then, you get a performance and a result that makes you sit up and take notice.

The ACT Brumbies coming back to beat the Chiefs from 17-7 down at half-time, and 24-7 approaching the hour, is one such performance. Coming off consecutive losses, the Brumbies were hosting a Chiefs side who had won their past five encounters, with a couple of semi-finals and their last meeting in Canberra among them.

Further, the Brumbies were also staring down the barrel of three straight losses for the first time since late in the 2022 season. However you’d want to measure it, this was an important game in the context of the rest of the Brumbies’ season.

What the ACT side did was score within a matter of minutes and then score again four minutes later to be back within a converted try. They would take the lead in the 71^st minute, before Corey Toole literally ran away with it in the 79^th, swooping to intercept a loose Chiefs pass and hold out Damien McKenzie in a 97m foot race of tired bodies, and at speeds well below what either player is capable of.

In all, the Brumbies scored 26 points in the last 20 minutes, with the final 33-24 scoreline answering many of the pre-game questions hanging above them last week, and raising more than a few questions about the Chiefs, who have slipped from second to fourth to sixth over the last fortnight.

Despite carrying a similar number of times, the Brumbies made around 100m fewer than the Chiefs, and with nearly half as many tackle breaks.

The Brumbies remain third, and were quick to point out numerous frailties the Chiefs were able to expose en route to racking up 24 unanswered points in the 20 minutes either side of half-time.

For one thing, despite carrying a similar number of times, the Brumbies made around 100m fewer than the Chiefs, and with nearly half as many tackle breaks. They also trailed the Chiefs in offloads (not entirely surprising, with the Chiefs one of the most prolific offloading teams in the competition) and post-contact metres, and thus had to rely on creating more 22 entries and their excellent pick and drive game to get over the line. This is a continuation of most 2026 trends, where the Brumbies rank low in the competition for line breaks, defenders beaten and offloads.

Furthermore, the Brumbies make more tackles per game than all but a couple of teams – meaning they also miss more than most – but trail heavily for dominant tackles and turnovers won. Their breakdown presence is strong with a couple of the best on-ballers in the competition in Rory Scott and Luke Reimer, but it doesn’t always equate to straight pilfers or ruck penalties won.

But there are some hints. Against the Chiefs, and where they enjoyed quick ruck speed themselves, they were able to impact the visiting possession in the ruck, with 11% of their ruck ball coming slower than six seconds, versus 5%  for the Brumbies.

The Brumbies also had 10 22 entries to the Chiefs’ 12, but were able to do more with them, averaging 3.3 points per entry to the Chiefs two points per entry.

Better attacking zone conversion, and less slow ruck ball was a big factor on Friday night, and it played a huge role in that last-quarter surge to reel in and ultimately overtake the Chiefs.

And those 26 points maintained a different trend for the Brumbies, which has been building impressively over the first six games. They lead the competition with 35 tries and 227 points scored, with only the Hurricanes north of 30 tries and 200 points. The Canes have played one game fewer, too, highlighting why they sit atop the standings.

Of the Brumbies’ 227 points, 141 of them (62.1%) have come in the second half. In fact, their scoring split by quarter increases through the game. They score slightly more in the 20 minutes before half-time than the first quarter of games, increase on that noticeably after the interval, before truly kicking away in the last 20 minutes.

Some 37.2% of their total points and 13 of their 35 tries come in the final quarter of games. Remarkably, the Brumbies have also scored another three tries in the 59^th minute of games. Throw these three tries into the mix, and it means 45.7% of the Brumbies tries scored in 2026 have come in the last 21 minutes of games.

The squad which seemed weaker than last season’s, could head to the same round eight bye in a better position. The 2026 Brumbies are a lot better than almost anyone predicted.

It’s an incredible finishing ability. And even more so when you consider the calibre of players Stephen Larkham is calling on to finish games.

Loosehead Blake Schoupp had 30 games to his name, and back-row Reimer nearly 60 coming into 2026. But young tighthead Tevita Alatini and lock/blindside Toby Macpherson both debuted this year. Hudson Creighton had played 20 games, and Liam Bowron and Klayton Thorn had fewer than 10 apiece. Tane Edmed has only played five games for the Brumbies. Young backs Kadin Pritchard and Kye Oates, often on the field for the final throes, are each in their maiden season of Super Rugby. It’s a modest amount of collective experience, and certainly not a lot of nous to close out games.

This speaks to the quality of talent developing from the Brumbies academy. The new crop are all building this ability – and confidence – to come off the bench and finish games together. They’re growing off each other’s success, and the trust among the group becomes so much more valuable to the Brumbies than just the sum of the numbers in the games played column.

Before a ball was kicked, the Brumbies were widely reckoned to have lost too many key players to mount a title charge. They’ve now won four of their first six games and while they couldn’t prevail in Fiji against the Drua, they did take care of the Crusaders in Christchurch, and have now beaten the Blues and Chiefs as well. They were going to face four of last season’s top six to start the year, and they’ve beaten three of them.

Their first block of the year is nearly done. Two pre-season fixtures and seven straight games for competition points before their first bye in round eight was always going to be a big ask for a younger squad, but they’re well ahead of most expectations.

And a few more than handy players mightn’t be far away from returning from injury, too. Hooker Lachlan Lonergan and full-back Tom Wright could come back from serious knee injuries in the next month or so. Captain Allan Ala’alatoa is said to be on track to return soon from his back problem, and has now notably moved from injured-player corporate duties to running the water on Friday.

Lock Nick Frost and back-rower Tuaina Tualima have been limited to two appearances each. And a couple of really exciting prospects in midfielder Jarrah McLeod and lock Harvey Cordukes are yet to debut. Rugby Australia workload management policies become easier to manage with these players waiting in the wings.

None of that will matter this weekend, of course, with the annually awaited Hume Highway clash with the NSW Waratahs providing the Brumbies with the perfect opportunity to go into the bye with five wins, one more than last season. The squad which seemed weaker than last season’s, could head to the same round eight bye in a better position. The 2026 Brumbies are a lot better than almost anyone predicted.

Even with plenty areas for improvement, this is a well-coached team who are playing very, very good rugby. Where only six weeks ago there might have been doubts over their play-off credentials, it already feels a question of just how high in that bracket they can finish.