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Heineken Champions Cup Predictor: Big Jim vs the RPI
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Heineken Champions Cup predictor: It’s another big European weekend, with most of the teams running out across the continent still with a lot to play for.
Here are my predictions for the 10 Round 5 matches and we’ve compared them to how the RugbyPass Index (RPI) is predicting each game.
Pool 1
Leinster vs Lyon
Lyon are now out and Leinster will top the group. I predict a bonus-point win for Leinster who are the form team in Europe right now, with Exeter the only other side on 19 points going into these matches.
Leinster by 15
The RPI:
Northampton vs Benneton
As much as I like Benneton Treviso, Europe is too much of an ask for them. Northampton are one of the form teams in the Premiership (which they will focus on now).
Northampton by 10
The RPI:
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Pool 2
La Rochelle vs Sale
Both teams are effectively down and out. France is always a tough place to play. Glasgow had a good win down there earlier in the group. Sale had a big win in the Premiership last week and all their focus is probably on the Premiership and resting front line players.
La Rochelle by 8
The RPI says:
Glasgow vs Exeter
Difficult one to call. What team will Glasgow put out at Scotstoun? Exeter are the joint form team in Europe on 19 points with Leinster who are on 19 points in pool 1. The Chiefs are very motivated and want to make a statement.
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Exeter by 5.
The RPI says:
Pool 3
Bath vs Quins
A complete dead rubber.
Quins by 5
The RPI says:
Clermont vs Ulster
Game of the weekend. The Parc des Sports Marcel Michelin is one of the toughest places to play in Europe. One point separates them. Ulster won the match between them at Ravenhill and are flying at the minute on all fronts.
Clermont by 6.
Pool 4
Ospreys vs Saracens
Poor Ospreys. AWJ is back which will help. This is a defining match for Saracens. If they win this with a bonus point they will be in a position to qualify – and in the knock-out stages they have the squad to go all they way. Can you imagine?
Saracans by 15
The RPI says:
Racing vs Munster
Racing top the pool and Munster still have a chance so this will be a good one. Simon Zebo and Donnacha Ryan are up against their old club again. Finn Russell is playing so well and if you remember that ridiculous nut-meg to score in the game between them earlier in the group, I’m telling you: he will try that again.
Racing by 10
The RPI says:
Pool 5
Connacht vs Toulouse
Toulouse are unbeaten in Europe. We will see what they are made of this weekend. Connacht have giant killer performances in them and I would not be surprised if they beat Toulouse.
Tough one… f*** it:
Connacht by 5
The RPI says:
Gloucester vs Montpellier
Not much to say here. Disappointed with Montpellier. Love Gloucester but Europe’s gone.
Gloucester by 8
The RPI says:
Comments on RugbyPass
The pack lacks a little in height for the line out and I wouldn’t be completely convinced by some of the combinations till we see it in action.
5 Go to commentsThe side is good but lacks experience. International playing bona fides udually trumps super rugby form for good reason. And incumbents are usually stuck with. Codie Taylor should start or come off the bench. B Barrett will start at fullback. Blackadder has not earned the position, Finau has. TJs experience and competitiveness earns him a starting role, Christie or Ratima off the bench
5 Go to commentsPretty good side. Scott Barrett should be the captain. Ethan Blackadder a great choice at blindside. He is going to go from strength to strength having made a couple of starts for the Crusaders. Scott Robertson rates him highly. Perenara could start a no 9.
5 Go to commentsI question and with respect. Was enough done over the last few years to bring through new blood knowing the Whitelocks and co couldn’t last forever. There should have been more done to future proof the team. New squad new coach, he and they weren’t set up well. IMO
6 Go to commentsJacobsen will definitely be in the 23
5 Go to commentsLots of discussion points, Ben, but two glaring follies IMO: 1. Blackadder at 6. Has done nothing so far this season to justify his selection. Did you see him going backwards in contact at the weekend? Simply has not got the physical presence at 6: we need a Scott Barrett or a Finau (or wildcard Ah Kuoi), beasts who are big enough to play lock, like Frizzell. If Barret played at 6, Paddy could be joined at lock by Vai’i or one of the young giants we need to promote, like Darry or Lord (if he ever gets on the field). Blackadder best left to join the queue for 7. 2. Not even a mention for Christie? Ratima gets caught at crucial times at the back of the ruck when he hesitates on the pass. The only way he starts would be if Christie and TJ are injured.
5 Go to commentsWhat a dagg in more ways than one
6 Go to commentsRegroup come back next year but sack some of the coaching team and don't be like the ABs last minute sacking. If Crusaders don't do well ABs don't do well.
5 Go to commentsProctor Definitely inform again this year had a hell of a season last year and this year is looking even better. Still mixed feelings about Ioane tho.
4 Go to commentsDagg is still trying to get enough headlines to make himself relevant enough to get a job. The Crusaders went back to square one at all levels. Shelve this season and nail the next one.
6 Go to commentsHe was in such great form. Sad for him but only a short term injury and it will be great to see him back for the finals.
1 Go to commentsAfter their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
5 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
3 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to comments