The Hard Numbers - Super Rugby Week 13
Week 13 is upon us and one daring punter has placed a $100,000 bet on the Hurricanes to beat the Blues for a sixth consecutive time. Let’s take a look through all the key stats and make educated guesses of our own.
- The Hurricanes have won their last five games against the Blues, three of those victories coming at Eden Park.
- The Canes have won their last four games against sides in the New Zealand conference, only once before have they won five such games on the bounce (W5 in 2015).
- The Blues are winless in 15 games against New Zealand-based opposition (D1, L14), although 10 of their defeats in that run have come by single figure margins.
- The Blues enjoy 17 minutes and 27 seconds of time in possession per game this season, more than any other squad in the competition.
- Beauden Barrett has provided three try assists via kicks this season, more than any other player in the competition.
My pick: Hurricanes. It’s going to get even worse before things get better at the Blues.
#BigBet: One punter has put down $100,000 on the Hurricanes to beat the Blues at $1.23. How confident are you in the Canes extending their winning streak?
All the odds: https://t.co/m66bsMyL3a pic.twitter.com/YbMoYkPln5
— TAB Sport (@TAB_Sport) May 8, 2018
- This will be just the second meeting between these sides and their first in Japan; the Reds won 35-25 at Suncorp Stadium in their previous clash.
- The Sunwolves are yet to win against Australian opposition (L8), they’re the only nation they’re yet to beat in Super Rugby.
- The Reds have lost 20 of their last 22 games outside Australia (W2), although one of their two victories in that run came earlier this season (v Jaguares).
- The Sunwolves (8.7) and Reds (9.4) have conceded fewer penalties and free kicks per game than any other teams so far this campaign.
- Filipo Daugunu has crossed for a try in three of his last four games away from home for the Reds.
My pick: Reds. I am ever hopeful that the Sunwolves will start to show the sort of promise we’re now seeing from the Jaguares, but I just don’t think it’s going to happen this weekend.
- The Crusaders have won 13 of their last 15 games against the Waratahs (L2), including eight wins in a row at home to the NSW outfit.
- The Crusaders have won 19 of their last 20 home games, including their last 13 in a row, their best run since winning 14 on the bounce from 2009 to 2011.
- The Crusaders’ last four home defeats have all come against New Zealand opposition; they’ve lost just two of their last 69 at home against clubs from outside New Zealand (W66, D1).
- The Waratahs continue to boast the best goal-kicking accuracy in the competition, piloting 87% of attempts through the uprights.
- Taqele Naiyaravoro has scored three tries in his previous two encounters with the Crusaders.
My pick: Crusaders. That incredible losing record against NZ sides is only going to be extended here.
- The Highlanders have won five of their six home games against the Lions including their last two in a row; their solitary defeat came in 2011 at Carisbrook.
- The Highlanders have won their last 10 in a row at home, only once before have they gone on a longer such run (W13, 2000-2002).
- The Lions have lost their last two games, the last time they lost more was a three-game drought to open the 2015 campaign.
- Only the Crusaders (15) have scored more tries in the final quarter of games this campaign than the Lions (14); the Highlanders have scored just seven tries in this period.
- Ash Dixon has a throw success rate of 92% this campaign, the second best of any player to have made at least 30 throws this season.
My pick: Highlanders. I expect the Highlanders to bounce back from the Shark mauling they suffered last time out and will do enough to get the win at home under the roof at Forsyth Barr.
- The Rebels have won three of the last five meetings between these sides, more than they’d managed in their previous nine (W2, L7).
- The Brumbies have won five of their six home games against the Melbourne side (L1), those five wins coming by an average margin of 25 points.
- The Rebels’ last six Australian derbies have all been won by the home side on the day (Rebels W2, L4).
- The Rebels have missed the most tackles (26) and conceded the most penalties and free kicks (13) per game of any team this campaign.
- Henry Speight has scored four tries in his last four games against the Rebels, gaining in excess of 100m in a game twice in that time.
My pick: Brumbies or Rebels. Care factor at an all time low when considering this fixture. The only people watching this game will be the Fox Sports commentary team who are still paid to turn up even though they sound like they haven’t seen a real game of rugby in years.
- The Chiefs have won five of the last seven games between these sides (L2), twice overturning a halftime deficit in that run.
- The Chiefs have lost just four of their last 27 games against South African opposition (W21, D2); the Stormers were responsible for two of those defeats.
- The Cape Town side have won nine of their last 11 regular season games when hosting New Zealand opposition, although those nine wins have come by an average margin of just eight points.
- The Stormers have booted 18 penalty goals this season, the equal most of any team in the competition.
- Damian McKenzie has made 15 break passes this season, more than any other player in the competition and six more than Stormers’ best Damian Willemse (9) and SP Marais (9).
My pick: Chiefs. The Stormers are going ok at home but I’m expecting the embarrassment of being the first NZ side to lose to the Jaguares last weekend will be strong motivation for the Chiefs to bounce back in style.
- The Bulls are unbeaten in their last six games against the Sharks (W5, D1), restricting the Durban side to fewer than 20 points in five of those matches.
- The Sharks are winless in their last five trips to Loftus Versfeld (D1, L4), although each of those defeats have come by eight points or fewer.
- The Bulls have finished six of their last eight games with a 100% goal kicking accuracy, missing just three of 29 attempts at the sticks in that time.
- The Bulls (164) have scored more first-half points this season than any other team in the competition.
- Robert du Preez has made eight try assists this campaign, the equal most of any player in the competition; the Sharks’ flyhalf also leads the competition in total points scored (132).
My pick: Sharks. I haven’t seen the Bulls play for years and the numbers suggest they will be tough to beat at home, but I actually saw the Sharks play last week and they looked very impressive.
Thanks to Opta for all the sweet stats.
Comments on RugbyPass
“But with an exceptional pass accuracy rating “ Which apart from Roigard is not a feature of any of the other 9s in NZ. Kind of basic for a Black 9 dont.you. think? Yet we keep seeing FC and TJ being rated ahead of him? Weird if it’s seen as vital to get our backline beating in your face defences.
1 Go to commentsThanks BeeMc! Looks like many teams need extra time to settle from the quadrennial northern migration. I think generally the quality of the Rugby has held up. Fiji has been fantastic and fun to watch
13 Go to commentsLets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
11 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
11 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
17 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to comments