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Saracens may be in a Champions Cup group of death but they are heavy favourites for a reason and I’m backing them to emulate Toulon and lift a third straight title.
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Every group is so tough to call and that shows how strong the competition has become and how much it’s grown in recent years.
I expect Toulon to qualify from Pool 5 with Bath or Scarlets also coming through as a best runner-up. The pool with the Italian team in it normally provides two quarter-finalists and the tournament will be even more competitive next season when teams only qualify from the PRO14 on merit.
Scarlets are PRO14 champions and have made a really good start to this season, losing just one game so far, so I expect them just to have the edge over Bath.
The other pool that I think two teams will definitely get out of is Pool 4 as Castres are the weakest of the French sides involved this season. Racing aren’t in the best form in the Top 14 either and I think Leicester and Munster will both make it through.
Racing’s performance against Leicester in Round 1 will dictate their interest level in the competition and I expect them to fare better than they did last season but I fancy Tigers to get through along with the men from Thomond Park.
Pool 2 contains both of the finalists from last season, which is fairly ludicrous. Ospreys are likely to be the whipping boys in that group, given that they’ve lost 11 of their last 13 games since the end of March. Northampton will put up a good fight but I expect Saracens and Clermont to show their pedigree at this level and both come through.
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Northampton against Saracens at Franklin’s Gardens is going to be a bit special this weekend after what happened at Twickenham on the opening day of the Premiership campaign. Dylan Hartley will have his team really fired up and that one will be an absolute war.
I just don’t see a weakness in this Saracens side though and they will go and suffocate the life out of Saints. There hasn’t been much love lost between the two teams since the Premiership final in 2014 and it will be an emotionally charged game with Calum Clark going back to his old club as well but I just think Sarries will edge it.
If you lose your first game at home, the writing isn’t fully on the wall but the pen is certainly out and that could be the situation Northampton find themselves after this weekend.
We all know Exeter’s pedigree know as Premiership champions and they had a difficult draw in Europe last season with Clermont in their group. This one looks even tougher but I think they might just be the ones to emerge from Pool 3.
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Their game against Glasgow at Sandy Park on Saturday night will be an absolute cracker and that will set the tone for them. The Warriors are unbeaten in the PRO14 and Leinster have only lost one game as well so it’s a ridiculously tough pool but I’m backing the Chiefs to qualify.
Montpellier are missing Aaron Cruden this weekend and that’ll hinder them because they’re a completely different beast when he plays. I think they have the squad to compete at the top table in Europe now but they don’t have that European mentality or pedigree, so I think they’ll miss out.
Every team in Pool 1 could realistically win through to the knockout stages. I think they’ll all beat each other, though, so only one team will qualify and I can’t back against Wasps, despite their current injury crisis.
La Rochelle topped the Top 14 last season and will be a real threat but they are still something of an unknown quantity in this competition as it’s their first season in the top tier. They will be seriously tough to beat over in France and can compete in that group but a lot will depend on their first two results in terms of how much interest they have in the competition.
Winning all your home games and sneaking an away victory and a couple of bonus points on the road is the tried and tested recipe for getting out of your pool in the Champions Cup nowadays and there’s very little room for error now that the quality is so high across the board.
I think this year we’ll see a team qualify with the lowest ever points total as a best placed runner-up in the history of the competition because the standard has gone through the roof.
It’s hard to look past the pair that reached the final last year in terms of my pick to win the title but I just think the depth Saracens have and the culture at the club sets them apart and I think they will go on to match Toulon’s historic feat of three consecutive European Cup victories.
The pool stages will be full of the usual twists and turns starting with an epic contest at the Kingspan Stadium tonight. Ulster may well win that battle but I expect Wasps to win the war and Clermont, Saracens, Exeter, Leicester, Munster, Toulon and Scarlets to join them in the knockout stages come January.
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Hey. Stay home and play for Mooloo.
1 Go to commentsTighthead was always going to be our weakness this year with Ryan going home to Ireland and the Cashed Up Blues taking a third All Black prop from us - nobody else in SR does that. Numia is the exciting one. He used to be a lightweight but he's really improved. Do you have stats on the All Black hookers’ lineouts for the game? I seem to remember a few misses.
2 Go to commentsFergus Burke isn't tier 1 player quality…but guess what, he'll be playing amongst them for Saracens…. all going well and Steve Borthwick is still the head coach, England...Scott Robertson’s hint of amending NZRU’s offshore AB eligibility clause, would mean that players like Josh Moorby who show potential might get a call…
4 Go to commentsThe movement of quality players back to SA is remarkable.
2 Go to commentsInteresting article, Nic. Am enjoying seeing the Rebels doing well, partly just to spite those who are working to wipe them off the face of the Australian rugby planet. But it is also good to see a team with somany good players beginning fire. LSL has benefitted so much from his move up to Northampton for the one year. I wonder why he did not stay on for another year. Does he now looks north and see his teammates of last year now doing so well, and have some regrets.
44 Go to comments“Over 80% of the World Cup squad are over 30” No it isn’t lol
2 Go to commentsTyrel Lomax the best AB prop since Carl Hayman. Absolutely destroyed the Boks in RWC Final and is monstering allcomers in Super this season. Should be a monster battle vs touring Poms, always deliver a power pack.
2 Go to commentsEye gouging seems like such a strong term for what can only be described as a poke in the eye. When I think of eye gouging I think of someone trying to intentionally pop someone’s eyeball out. it’s like calling a high-tackle attempted decapitation.
3 Go to commentsGreat article. No insights to add, just wanted to say that. :)
1 Go to commentsLeinster are going to win the world cup.
13 Go to commentsSuper Rugby desperately needs to lose at least 2, but up to 4 teams. Rebels quietly going bankrupt would have made that a bit easier. Teams like the Rebels and Force serve only to weaken Australian Rugby and Super Rugby more widely. In 13 years in the comp the Rebels are yet to win more games than they lose in a season, have never finished in the top half of the competition, and have come dead last a number of times. The Western Force, barring a brief stint of mediocrity under John Mitchell from 2007-2009 have been even worse. Sadly it’s hard to see a future for Moana Pasifika in Super Rugby. Likewise I think the writing is on the wall for the Highlanders, it’s hard to see how NZ rugby can continue to support 5 SR teams, and population distribution suggests one team in the south island would make the most sense.
44 Go to commentsNice that Connor Evans is happy to stay on here, that JD Schikerling is returning and Steven Kitshoff. Dobbo is careful to bring back just anybody but having a new financial lease of life, it has made the Stormers a more attractive club. On top of being good quality, having the financial backing helps a lot
1 Go to commentsEngland-qualified too, I believe.
1 Go to commentsThis might turn out to be emblematic of a real issue in Irish rugby. Ireland have one of the best -if not the best - senior sides in the world, and one of the best under 20s sides as well, but don’t seem to be giving graduating under20s players many opportunities to break through into URC starting lineups. There is a risk that a lot of the junior talent they are developing will either be wasted, or lost to other nations.
1 Go to commentsYou ask good questions, Nick. The group who have put together the proposal to play out of Tarneit and participate in the growing of the ground’s capacity are not a bunch of white knights who have been dragged in post-crisis; they were around whilst the Rebels accummulated $23m in debt. Why do we come up with ideas that might make the franchise affordable after it’s broke and not when it might have prevented the trainwreck this offseason was? As for Gordon/Kellaway v Lolesio/Wright, they are both good options. I think the former are better rugby players but the goal kicking of Noah may be decisive when Schmiddy makes his choices. I know Harry Jones has the hots for Edmed but I think it’s one of his few poor choices and he and Jorgensen aren’t close to the other pairs. By coincidence, the wife and I went into town over the weekend to watch Brian Cox and Patricia Clarkson in Long Day’s Journey into Night. Beautifully acted but it was 3.5 hours in the chair and very hard work. Like the Rebels, there were only small bursts of joy to go with a lot of bad news and a depressing story line. In the end, I was hoping it would end and I could give my sore butt a break. Again, familiar.
44 Go to commentsGood decision, very good player but not international quality. But so was Jamison Gibson Park …..
4 Go to commentsLoose forwards always look good going forward and winning. It’s the same loose forwards for the Crusaders and the Canes this year as last year. Too much of the shiny new things getting noticed here while older consistent ones getting bagged. It’s early days. Calm the farm.
8 Go to commentsThanks Nick, and on the money. We tend to be apathetic until something REALLY BAD happens, then we aren't! At least this applies to the Reb players and coach, if not the spectators. They seem to be getting very quick ball at times. Have they altered something, or is it just all of the skills coming together at the right time? It seems almost the opposite of the Reds, who started the season with quick ball, but haven't been showing that in the last 3 losing games. Is it attitude (McDermott hasn't looked “right” to me for 3 weeks), or something else?
44 Go to commentsGood summary. As said, Sevu Reece has been electrifying for the Crusaders. Great try and he has been everywhere. Amazing he is now equal with Caleb Ralph , club record of 52 tries for the Crusaders. That record beckons. Good to see Dallas McLeod getting regular starts at last. A big few weeks are ahead.
8 Go to commentsGood article/interview.As was said Christian Lio-Willie was barnstorming when he came on for the Crusaders. What happened at the end, self-explanatory.Captain fantastic Scott Barrett is due back soon as well, once they are back from Aussie. Great to see Ethan Blackadder back last week.
1 Go to comments