Flat France need something special to upset England
On paper, England versus France in Yokohama on Saturday, a Rugby World Cup ‘Le Crunch’, looks to be an increasingly one-sided contest, pending the approaches that both head coaches opt to take to selection. In a RWC pool that has already decided its quarter-finalists, this is a winner-takes-all encounter for seeding, momentum and bragging rights.
After shining in their opening 40 minutes against Argentina, France have looked flat and turgid in their last 200 minutes of rugby. From the second half against the Pumas to their more recent encounters with the USA and Tonga, Les Bleus have fallen far short of the world beaters tag that they so frequently seem to shoulder at Rugby World Cups.
England have not set the tournament alight yet, either, although they have dispatched the same three opponents that France have with far more ease and composure. They were certainly helped by Tomas Lavanini’s red card in the first half on Saturday, although the USA and Tonga, who frustrated and troubled France, were dispatched without England ever needing to get beyond third gear.
The problem that the Lavanini red card has given England, who played 62 minutes of their game with Argentina against just 14 men, is that they are still largely untested heading towards the knockout rounds. Although Argentina’s track record against England in recent years is littered with losses, they have often pushed England hard and Eddie Jones and his staff would have probably preferred for his side to have been put under a bit more pressure than they were in Tokyo, despite securing qualification with a game to spare.
On form, that test doesn’t look like it will come this weekend against France. Admittedly, France have also qualified for the quarter-finals and are undefeated in their three games, but they’ve done so in unconvincing fashion. With both teams in the knockout rounds already, they are playing to fine-tune, avoid injuries and jockey for position, with Wales or Australia likely awaiting them.
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Watch: Jones, Farrell and Mitchell face the media after their 39-10 win against Argentina
Those factors could influence selection with reports already surfacing that Jones could heavily rotate, although with England and France coming into the game off the back of seven and six-day turnarounds respectively and then facing a full week of preparation for the quarter-finals, they will have the opportunity to pick as strong teams as possible if they wish. With Wales also looking like group winners in Pool D, trying to top Pool C and face Australia is a reasonable carrot to dangle in front of both teams.
If France want to spring an upset and enjoy that favourable seeding, and let’s not forget this is ‘Le Crunch’, a fixture that France very rarely fail to get themselves up for, then Jacques Brunel’s side will need to make significant leaps forward in almost all areas this week.
For France, that starts with their discipline. They coughed up an eye-watering 15 indiscretions against Argentina and 10 against the USA. That was six more than the USA conceded, despite France bossing both the possession and territory battles in that game. Working in France’s favour is the way that number is trending, however, with just six conceded against Tonga on Sunday. They will need a number like that to unseat England this weekend.
A sad state of affairs #FRAvTGA pic.twitter.com/pBBM63nwWg
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 6, 2019
One number that is not trending positively for France, though, is their turnovers conceded. From 16 against Argentina to 18 against the USA, before rising to maddening total of 22 against Tonga, there has been little foundation for France to build any sort of continuity or attacking threat from.
The silver lining for France? England haven’t been too clinical themselves, coughing up 50 turnovers in their first three games. That’s only six less than France. The difference, though, is that not only have England been more composed in their execution in phase play when they have been able to keep hold of possession, they have also been more disciplined, conceding 22 penalties to France’s total of 31.
France’s set-piece has gone relatively smoothly in those three games, although again, it doesn’t stack up favourably when compared to England’s performances in those same match-ups. England’s lineout has prospered and shown an ability to disrupt the opposition throw, as well as taking control of the scrum contest. France’s pack will be much more strenuously tested by England than they have been by Argentina, the USA or Tonga.
It’s not all doom and gloom for France, though, and in isolation a number of players have impressed so far in the tournament. These are players that France will need to fire in Yokohama on Saturday.
Damian Penaud and Alivereti Raka have had their moments out wide, whilst Sofiane Guitoune and Virimi Vakatawa have flashed offensively in the midfield. On form, that would look like the most threatening back line that France could field alongside Maxime Médard at full-back, although there is no guarantee that Brunel will opt for that combination, with the likes of Yoan Huget and Gaël Fickou also in the mix.
Speaking of productive combinations, loose forwards Charles Ollivon and Gregory Alldritt have dovetailed extremely well in France’s back row. The pack overall may not have delivered front-foot ball in the same fashion as England’s has over the last couple of weeks, but in those two players, Brunel has a source of gain-line success that matches up with anything that England have to offer. They are rapidly establishing themselves as France’s go-to pairing in the back row.
For all their merits, though, it is debatable whether or not France will be able to live with England at the breakdown on Saturday. Jones’ side haven’t been at their sharpest in that area, but between Tom Curry, Sam Underhill, Maro Itoje, Kyle Sinckler and the Vunipola brothers, not to mention Manu Tuilagi frequently chipping in when play moves to the wider channels, England are loaded with players capable of significantly influencing the contest at the contact area.
Perhaps most worrying, however, is France’s second half lapses. They diminished remarkably after the interval against Argentina and struggled consistently against Tonga the longer that game went on. Only the game against the USA saw France finish strongly, where they scored three tries in the final 13 minutes, but that certainly flattered the European side as the USA looked out on their feet in the final quarter. As for England, they have looked the much better side in the second halves of all three of their games so far.
Is there room at the inn for Japan?
There should be.
– writes @alexshawsport #rwc2019 https://t.co/MTaEJ8gAIw
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 5, 2019
Of course, the battle on paper and in the form books can count for little when two teams actually take to the field. This Rugby World Cup pool is there to be won for France, despite most factors seeming to lean in England’s favour. Brunel has a functioning set-piece at his disposal, a handful of genuine game-winners and a match-up ahead of him that no French player needs to be motivated for.
After the flatness of the opening three games, France will need to rediscover some of those old French rugby clichés. They aren’t that inconsistent team who we have to speculate upon which side that’ll turn up, they’re consistently average to below average at the moment. They have a handful of Gallic flair to lean upon in the back line, though they struggle dominate up front for more than 40 minutes in order to sufficiently unleash it.
If there were a day for a resurrection in their mercurial ways and fearsome and uncompromising forwards, it could well be in Yokohama this Saturday.
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Comments on RugbyPass
This is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?
34 Go to commentsWow, didn’t realise there was such apathy to URC in SA, or by Champions Cup teams. Just read Nick’s article on Crusaders, are Sharks a similar circumstance? I think SA rugby has been far more balanced than NZs, no?
2 Go to commentsBut here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.
15 Go to commentsIt could be coincidental or prescient that the All Blacks most dominant period under Steve Hansen was when the Crusaders had their least successful period under Todd Blackadder and then the positions reversed when Razor took over the Crusaders.
15 Go to commentsDefinitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to commentsSinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
1 Go to commentsThanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
15 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
15 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
2 Go to commentsLike others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
15 Go to commentsharry potter is set in stone. he creates stability and finishes well. exactly what schmidt likes. he’s the ben smith of australian rugby. i think it could quite easily be potter toole and kellaway for the foreseeable future.
5 Go to commentsThis is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to commentsWhat a load of bollocks. The author has forgotten to mention the fact that the Crusaders have a huge injury toll with top world class players out. Not to mention the fact that they are obviously in a transition period. No this will not spark a slow death for NZ rugby, but it does mean there will be a new Super Rugby champion. Anyone who knows anything about NZ rugby knows that there is some serious talent here, it just isn’t all at the Crusaders.
15 Go to commentsI wouldn’t spend the time on Nawaqanitawase! No point in having him filling in a jersey when he’s committed to leave Union. Give the jersey to a young prospect who will be here in the future.
5 Go to commentsIt was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
7 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to comments