England's worst-case 2027 World Cup pool sees English great coming back to haunt them

The rugby world is now just days away from finding out the pools for the 2027 World Cup in Australia, with the pool draw available to watch live on RugbyPass TV on Wednesday. 

Now ranked third in the world following their unbeaten Quilter Nations Series, England are grouped in Band 1 ahead of the draw, meaning they avoid being lumped with South Africa, the All Blacks, Ireland, France and Argentina.

Avoiding many of the giants of world rugby does not mean Steve Borthwick’s side are guaranteed a clean ride, far from it.

Bands 2, 3 and 4 are littered with pitfalls and bogey teams that could make England’s World Cup campaign a troublesome experience. With that said, there are plenty of teams that England would gladly see themselves drawn with when it takes place in Sydney on Wednesday.

A glance at Band 2 in the seedings – Australia, Fiji, Scotland, Italy, Wales and Japan – reads like a who’s who of teams who have a particular disdain for the Red Rose, and would do anything to beat their fiercest rivals at a World Cup.

Australia would be a particularly intimidating prospect for England. Not only are they the tournament hosts, but they are also the highest-ranked team currently in Band 2. The two sides are inured to each other at World Cups, having met in seven of the ten tournaments, including two finals. England have the better of the Wallabies at rugby’s showcase, winning four times and losing thrice. On top of that, England have won 11 of their 13 encounters over the last decade, meaning this may not necessarily be the hardest match-up there is to offer for Borthwick’s men.

England do not, however, boast a positive win record against Wales at World Cups, with their sole victory coming in the quarter-finals of the 2003 instalment on the way to winning the tournament. Wales have also inflicted upon England arguably their most galling loss in World Cup history, as they defeated them in the pool stages of their own World Cup in 2015. However, England are fresh from scoring their most points ever against Wales in their most recent meeting (a 68-14 win in the Six Nations this year), and the chasm between the two sides is the widest it has been in years, and it only looks like growing wider. There is no doubt Wales would bring their A-game to this fixture in the World Cup, but there are potentially harder opponents.

England have never lost to Scotland in a World Cup, beating them in 1991 and 2011, but what Scotland possess that no other team in Band 2 possesses is a positive win record over their bitter rivals across the last two World Cup cycles, dating back to 2016. Scotland have won five of their last 10 Calcutta Cup clashes, with one draw, with Gregor Townsend seemingly having England’s number. There may be six places separating England (third) and Scotland (ninth) in the World Rankings, but it is all but guaranteed that they will pull out all the stops when the men in white are stood in front of them. It is for that reason, this could well be England’s toughest pool opponent.

The best-case opponent among Band 2 would be Japan, with Eddie Jones’ side being the lowest-ranked team among the sextet, having just crept into the top 12 in the world rankings with a win over Georgia.

Among Band 3 – Georgia, Spain, Uruguay, USA, Chile, Tonga – Georgia would be England’s trickiest opponent based purely on rankings. England have never lost to any of these outfits, but Georgia were on the cusp of a Band 2 seeding, only to slip down one ranking place after losing 25-23 to Japan in November.

There is very little to separate Tonga and Chile in the world rankings, and though Chile are ranked marginally above the Pacific Islanders, Tonga will have the greater star power at the World Cup, with all players being available. England, and most other teams, would probably prefer lining up against Chile, therefore.

Band 4 – Samoa, Portugal, Romania, Hong Kong China, Zimbabwe, Canada – actually poses a trickier prospect than Band 3. Though Samoa snuck into the World Cup by the skin of their teeth, narrowly winning November’s Final Qualification Tournament thanks to having one more try bonus point than Belgium, a full-strength Samoan outfit is a different beast entirely. When they have all their players at their disposal, Samoa can be a handful for any team, and they may also be boosted by England great Manu Tuilagi switching allegiance for the tournament. On top of this, Samoa were indignant about their narrow 18-17 loss to Borthwick’s side the last time they met at the 2023 World Cup. Revenge would be on their mind.

Being ranked 25th in the world, Canada would be the ideal opponent from Band 4 for England.

England’s worst-case scenario for the Rugby World Cup 2027 pool draw: England, Scotland, Georgia, Samoa

England’s best-case scenario for the Rugby World Cup 2027 pool draw: England, Japan, Chile, Canada

Four Rugby World Cup seeding bands

Band 1: South Africa, New Zealand, England, Ireland, France, Argentina

Band 2: Australia, Fiji, Scotland, Italy, Wales, Japan

Band 3: Georgia, Spain, Uruguay, USA, Chile, Tonga

Band 4: Samoa, Portugal, Romania, Hong Kong China, Zimbabwe, Canada