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England is nice but the Springboks will be a true test of the All Blacks' mettle

Captain Scott Barrett (C) along with vice captains Ardie Savea (L) and Jordie Barrett (R) look on during the New Zealand All Blacks 2024 season launch at NZCIS on June 26, 2024 in Upper Hutt, New Zealand. (Photo by Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images)

It’ll be September before we know a thing about this All Blacks team.

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Look, we probably underestimated Ireland this time two years ago and are at risk of doing the same with England this time around.

But I just don’t see this England team throwing up a huge challenge in the next couple of weeks, nor Fiji or Argentina.

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It’s not until the All Blacks meet the Springboks in South Africa in September that we’ll be able to judge if this coaching group and players are any better than what we’ve since the team began a steady decline in 2017.

I look at the team picked to play England in Dunedin on Saturday and it’s okay.

The tight five is good and the loose forwards useful.

But when I see the names of those picked in the backline, I wonder if they have the accuracy and consistency to stave off legitimate opposition.

I try not to pick on individuals. It’s kind of mean and certainly doesn’t endear you to anyone.

It’s easier to make statements about the collective than to say so and so isn’t up to it.

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My disappointment, in this instance, is we’re not going to learn whether they are or not during the next two months of footy.

Let’s assume they beat England handily. We all know how that’s going to be greeted.

We’ll be told about the fresh environment and ideas in the camp and how this player and that player has matured beyond belief during the Super Rugby Pacific season and is twice the footballer they were before.

It’ll be ‘fabulous’ this and ‘wonderful’ that, forgetting that Super Rugby and average-to-weak test opposition are no barometer of success or development.

I have a degree of sympathy for new coach Scott Robertson in that regard.

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His players are likely to be praised to absurd levels, given our collective thirst to see a return to All Blacks supremacy.

Only nothing weakens the resolve of people like praise.

I know there will be fans that say we have to treat the start of a new era with optimism.

People who believe teams deserve a honeymoon period, where we all get behind them until proven otherwise.

I actually believe this is a time for pragmatism and caution, even scepticism. A time to stay off the bandwagon at least until the Springboks are beaten in Johannesburg and Cape Town in September.

If Robertson can keep this team from getting lazy and complacent after the victories that appear to await them between now and then, I’ll be mightily impressed.

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It’s at that point, that I’ll start talking about a team that’s potentially turned a corner and which has an idea about what excellence looks like.

For now, this looks like an All Black team with some holes to fill. Particularly in the backs.

A team that hopes to do well against elite competition, but hasn’t yet got the personnel or belief to do it consistently.

We’ll get a better idea of their 2027 Rugby World Cup credentials come September.

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Comments

35 Comments
B
Bruce 272 days ago

How dismissive of an improving England team. I do hope they surprise you. They may well not but to look further ahead for sterner competition is very condescending.

F
Flankly 273 days ago

Borthwick is gradually building a non-nonsense kind of team, with a back-to-basics workmanlike style. And I am backing him to do a good job of it, over time. If they aren’t already a legitimate contender against all comers then we should expect them to get there within the next year. Don’t expect the prettiest or most elegant rugby, but don’t underestimate their potential.


FWIW I would not be surprised to see a relatively under-cooked NZ team lose to England in this series. You have to back Razor’s record in the longer run, but again it is a team in rebuild. Most of the magic emerges in teams when they have built experience as a unit. It’s when you get the roles, accuracy, timing and anticipation working that you get the results. It also helps to prove your selections and develop your squad depth.


England are one year ahead of NZ in that rebuild process. I would love to see NZ win, but it is a lot to ask right. now. NZ deserve a break as Razor gets it all working together.


As relates to NZ/SA, I expect those to be the biggest games of the 2024 season.

m
mW 273 days ago

Bidwell is just a troll.

R
Roelof 273 days ago

Well if Sir “Dumb Ass” Kirwan is to be believed then the AB should have no problem beating the Springboks in SA. Why wait until September, just pronounce the AB the best in the world and then blame everyone and everything when they lose. That is after all the NZ way.

L
LRB 273 days ago

Muppet

T
Toaster 273 days ago

Wow another terrible and meaningless article from this guy!


Beat England handily?!

I’d take any win


Why not provide some analysis on the backline players you refuse to name Hamish??

L
LW 273 days ago

“We are probably under estimating england”…. Then goes ahead and writes them off, predicting an AB easy series win, at the same time saying the backline is rubbish. How arrogant can you possibly be. Ridiculous

S
SJ 273 days ago

As a South African, I would say, take any team thats in the top 8/7 Seriously, any of them can beat any team on the day.

S
Shaylen 273 days ago

So you have now indicated that the All Blacks should beat England and Argentina quite easily and if they do you have already played down those victories no matter what the margin or the quality of the performance. You have rated that it is impossible to discern any progress between now and September. So why even play the matches? Why even watch? Who cares, lets just wildly speculate about them until then because apparently the next 2 months are inconsequential and will be filled with praise and love for an overhyped AB’s team. Is that your point from this article? If thats the case what was the point in me even reading this?

Y
YeowNotEven 273 days ago

All Blacks win= who cares the opposition sucks


All Blacks lose= they suck


Basically, Bidwell writes to wind up New Zealanders. And unfortunately, it works everytime.

T
Tim 273 days ago

The scribe is gonna have egg on his face if England beat NZ. There's no guarantees in rugby.

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LW 273 days ago

This guy has egg on his face already. Its made of egg

Y
YeowNotEven 273 days ago

Actually it’s the opposite. Nothing would make this guy happier than an all blacks loss.

Y
YeowNotEven 273 days ago

Is Bidwell just trolling or does he actually not watch any rugby?

England were bronze medalists in the World Cup last year and changed their game up after a poor 6N start to beat Ireland (who improved massively since the 1/4 final loss) and almost beat France with some very nice running rugby.

How are they not a massive challenge for a brand new ABs

side on ten days prep?

Bidwell offers no ideas on what this weak backline of ours should look like either.

And how on earth are the Boks the yardstick? According to Bidwell, they only beat a mediocre English team and a not very good All Blacks team by 1 point each.

Can’t be very good if they only beat the weak teams by one point.

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Number 16 273 days ago

Bidwell is writing about fan’s complacency and he has already written off the English team as a worthy challenge for the ABs??


If anything, the test tomorrow (NZ time) is totally up for grabs.


England are a settled team, and are match ready. Our guys have had 10 days together under a completely new regime.


Lets see how the next 2 weeks go before we start thinking about playing the RC


BTW… The Rugby Championship… what marketing genius gave it that inspiring title?!

T
Tim 273 days ago

SANZAAR I guess. Six Nations is obviously by far a more inspiring title?!

B
B.J. Spratt 273 days ago

Hamish I thought you were the Champion of “Free Speech” unless it’s about you!

B
B.J. Spratt 273 days ago

Journalists are the parasites on the arse of negativity. They suck blood to survive. They take the next opportunity that’s available, usually another wounded victim in distress.

In New Zealand 86% of them are Socialists. They usually all start off with Radio New Zealand. All Socialists are “Social Engineers” and as you can see by this article, that “we have to save the world from themselves attitude” is very noticeable.

So really Hamish, either give us some “positive” common sense or piss off back to RNZ with the rest of your comrads.

B
B.J. Spratt 273 days ago

Hamish just censored my comment(s) sprattbjs1@gmail.com

B
B.J. Spratt 273 days ago

Journalists are the parasites on the arse of negativity. They suck blood to survive. They take the next opportunity that’s available, usually another wounded victim in distress.


In New Zealand 86% of them are Socialists. They usually all start off with Radio New Zealand. All Socialists are “Social Engineers” and as you can see by this article, that “we have to save the world from themselves attitude” is very noticeable.


So really Hamish, either give us some “positive” common sense or piss off back to RNZ with the rest of your comrads.

D
Dan 273 days ago

Indeed. Neither the ABs or Boks good enough to beat France or Ireland without the massive incompetence of the refs shown in the RWC to ruin it for the supporters of rugby.


But gotta keep the ignorant delusional SH supporters happy with some additional utter 💩 like this article.

P
POHM 272 days ago

What a sad loser of a comment , maybe don't watch rugby, because if you lose it’s the refs fault.

L
LRB 273 days ago

You are such a plonker

J
Johann 273 days ago

Is that historically Dan, or just this RWC, because both France and Ireland have never won one between them, and the SH teams you name have stacked the deck.

N
Ninjin 273 days ago

Cry me a river.

S
SadersMan 273 days ago

delusional indeed mate, big hugggs . . .

H
Head high tackle 273 days ago

Very average article. You usually hate on NZ whats going on? Oh I get it… praise them up forever as being great then jump on the first loss. Silly journalism really.

B
B.J. Spratt 273 days ago

Hamish censored my comment about his article

B
Barry 273 days ago

I don't mind him even if its clear he's never even played tag rugby.

B
Barry 273 days ago

Already looking past the first test… slippery.

M
Mike 273 days ago

Top trolling Hamish, well done!

P
POHM 272 days ago

Yeah, pretty rubbish from a supposed journalist.

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I
IkeaBoy 13 minutes ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

Pep didn’t win the ECL in 2009. It was 2008 with Barca. The gap between wins ignores the finals contested. 2 in 2 years with his City Triumph. The most recent put him in the elite company of managers to have won it with multiple clubs. Yet more late career success and history.


His time with City - a lower win ratio compared to Bayern Munich as you say - includes a 100 PT season. A feat that will likely never be surpassed. I appreciate you don’t follow soccer too closely but even casual fans refer to the sport in ‘pre and post Pep’ terms and all because of what he has achieved and is continuing to achieve, late career. There is a reason that even U10’s play out from the back now at every level of the game. That’s also a fairly recent development.


How refreshing to return to rugby on a rugby forum.


Ireland won a long over due slam in 2009. The last embers of a golden generation was kicked on by a handful of young new players and a new senior coach. Kiss was brought in as defence coach and was the reason they won it. They’d the best defence in the game at the time. He all but invented the choke tackle. Fittingly they backed it up in the next world cup in their 2011 pool match against… Australia. The instantly iconic image of Will Genia getting rag-dolled by Stephen Ferris.


His career since has even included director of rugby positions. He would have an extremely good idea of where the game is at and where it is going in addition to governance experience and dealings. Not least in Oz were many of the players will have come via or across Rugby League pathways.


Gatland isn’t a valid coach to compare too. He only ever over-achieved and was barely schools level without Shaun Edwards at club or test level. His return to Wales simply exposed his limitations and a chaotic union. It wasn’t age.


Schmidt is open to staying involved in a remote capacity which I think deserves more attention. It would be a brain drain to lose him. He stepped in to coach the ABs in the first 2022 test against Ireland when Foster was laid out with Covid. They mullered Ireland 42-19. He was still heavily involved in the RWC 2023 quarter final. Same story.


Look at the talent that would be discarded in Schmidt and Kiss if your age Nazism was applied.

169 Go to comments
f
fl 1 hour ago
Why Les Kiss and Stuart Lancaster can lead Australia to glory

“He won a ECL and a domestic treble at the beginning of his career.”

He won 2 ECLs at the beginning of his career (2009, 2011). Since then he’s won 1 in 15 years.


“He then won 3 leagues on the bounce later in his career”

He won 3 leagues on the bounce at the start of his career too - (2009, 2010, 2011).


If we’re judging him by champions league wins, he peaked in his late 30s, early 40s. If we’re judging him by domestic titles he’s stayed pretty consistent over his career. If we’re judging him by overall win rate he peaked at Bayern, and was better at Barcelona than at City. So no, he hasn’t gotten better by every measure.


“You mentioned coaches were older around the mid-2010’s compared to the mid-2000’s. Robson was well above the average age you’ve given for those periods even in the 90’s when in his pomp.”

Robson was 63-64 when he was at Barcelona, so he wasn’t very old. But yeah, he was slightly above the average age of 60 I gave for the top 4 premier league coaches in 2015, and quite a bit above the averages for 2005 and 2025.


“Also, comparing coaches - and their experiences, achievements - at different ages is unstable. It’s not a valid way to compare and tends to torpedo your own logic when you do compare them on equal terms. I can see why you don’t like doing it.”

Well my logic certainly hasn’t been torpedoed. Currently the most successful premier league coaches right now are younger than they were ten years ago. You can throw all the nuance at it that you want, but that fact won’t change. It’s not even clear what comparing managers “on equal terms” would even mean, or why it would be relevant to anything I’ve said.


“You still haven’t answered why Kiss could be a risker appointment?”

Because I’ve been talking to you about football managers. If you want to change the subject then great - I care a lot more about rugby than I do football.

But wrt Kiss, I don’t agree that 25 years experience is actually that useful, given what a different sport rugby was 25 years ago. Obviously in theory more experience can never be a bad thing, but I think 10 years of coaching experience is actually more than enough these days. Erasmus had been a coach for 13 years when he got the SA top job. Andy Farrell had been a coach for 9 when he got the Ireland job. I don’t think anyone would say that either of them were lacking in experience.


Now - what about coaches who do have 25+ years experience? The clearest example of that would be Eddie Jones, who started coaching 31 years ago. He did pretty well everywhere he worked until around 2021 (when he was 61), when results with England hit a sharp decline. He similarly oversaw a terrible run with Australia, and currently isn’t doing a great job with Japan.

Another example is Warren Gatland, who also started coaching full-time 31 years ago, after 5 years as a player-coach. Gatland did pretty well everywhere he went until 2020 (when he was 56), when he did a relatively poor job with the Chiefs, before doing a pretty poor job with the Lions, and then overseeing a genuine disaster with Wales. There are very few other examples, as most coaches retire or step back into lesser roles when they enter their 60s. Mick Byrne actually has 34 years experience in coaching (but only 23 years coaching in rugby) and at 66 he’s the oldest coach of a top 10 side, and he’s actually doing really well. He goes to show that you can continue to be a good coach well into your 60s, but he seems like an outlier.


So the point is - right now, Les Kiss looks like a pretty reliable option, but 5 years ago so did Eddie Jones and Warren Gatland before they went on to prove that coaches often decline as they get older. If Australia want Kiss as a short term appointment to take over after Schmidt leaves in the summer, I don’t think that would be a terrible idea - but NB wanted Kiss as a long term appointment starting in 2027! That’s a massive risk, given the chance that his aptitude will begin to decline.


Its kind of analagous to how players decline. We know (for example) that a fly-half can still be world class at 38, but we also know that most fly-halves peak in their mid-to-late 20s, so it is generally considered a risk to build your game plan around someone much older than that.

169 Go to comments
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AlanCriner 1 hour ago
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