Could England's reign at No.1 in the world rankings be about to end?

England’s Red Roses have led the World Rugby Women’s Rankings for the best part of five years, but their position at the top is now under threat heading into the WRWC 2025 semi-finals.

Firstly, under Simon Middleton and now John Mitchell, who has yet to lose as the Red Roses’ head coach, England have looked untouchable in the rankings.

Back in October 2024, after being crowned back-to-back WXV 1 champions, the Red Roses became the highest-rated team – men’s or women’s – in the history of the system designed to classify the world’s best teams.

Portia Woodman on playing at a packed Eden Park and how the Black Ferns recovered from 17-0 down | Rugby World Cup 2021

Portia Woodman on playing at a packed Eden Park and how the Black Ferns recovered from 17-0 down | Rugby World Cup 2021

The WXV 1 title-deciding win over Canada increased their rating to 97.56 points, which is more than even the great All Blacks team of 2011-15 or the current Springboks side ever managed.

They became the first team to smash through the 97-point barrier and have remained above that mark, even increasing their rating marginally to 97.76.

However, their place at the top of the rankings is now under threat as the four highest-ranked teams in the world prepare to take to the Ashton Gate pitch in Bristol.

Current world champions New Zealand play Canada, who are ranked second behind England, in the first of the two semi-finals, while England renew their rivalry with France the following day.

England have a sizeable lead of 7.63 points over Canada, but with Rugby World Cup matches counting double in the rankings, there is a chance, a slim chance, that they could lose their long-held, number one status.

For there to be a change at the top for the first time since November 2020, France need to beat their arch-rivals from across the channel by more than 15 points.

A win of this magnitude would lead to six rating points going to France and six being deducted from England’s total, with the net result of the 12-point swing seeing Les Bleues take over at the top for the first time – as long as Canada don’t beat the Black Ferns by a similarly big margin. If Canada also win by more than 15 points, they will replace England at No.1, not France.

Bearing in mind England have won each of their last 16 matches against France dating back to 2018 and are on a 31-match winning streak against all opposition, the odds on this happening are very long.

However, if they were to suffer such an unthinkable fate and fall short of their goal of a first Women’s Rugby World Cup title since 2014, England will equal their lowest-ever position of third place.

New Zealand are also vulnerable, as a defeat of more than 15 points will send them down to an all-time low of fourth.

If the semi-finals follow the formbook and England and New Zealand both win to set up a rerun of the RWC 2021 and 2017 finals, England will remain top with an unchanged rating.

Meanwhile, the Black Ferns will move up to second, with the gap between first and second potentially closing to 5.59 points.