Champions Cup quarter-final predictions as pools reach halfway mark
This past weekend of rugby brought the Heineken Champions Cup to the halfway mark of the pool stage and helped dispel plenty of pre-tournament predictions on who might make the knockout rounds.
There have been surprise packages, such as the undefeated Toulouse, whilst there have also been significant disappointments, such as the winless Wasps.
At this point, we now have a clearer view of how each pool is likely to turn out and what it could mean for the quarter-finals, where a home draw can be the difference-maker in a run all the way to the final, whilst an away fixture can mean an early exit.
In Pool 1, Toulouse have been composed and efficient in shooting into top spot with three wins and 12 points from their opening three games. They’ve gone to Bath and Wasps and won, as well as seeing off the reigning European champions, Leinster, at Stade Ernest Wallon. The only thing working against them is that they haven’t managed to secure a try bonus point in any of the three games, which means that Leinster sit just two points behind them, despite having lost in Toulouse.
Given that the two sides will meet in Dublin in January, the advantage still looks to be with Leinster, despite Toulouse’s impressive start to the campaign. With both Bath and Wasps having to make the trip to the south-west of France, the Top 14 side are in excellent position to grab a best runners-up spot, however, potentially even the best of the three qualifying slots, meaning they could avoid the overall number one or two seed.
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On to Pool 2 and Munster have taken control of the group, brushing aside Castres this past weekend, drawing away at Exeter Chiefs and beating Gloucester at Thomond Park. The trip to Stade Pierre Fabre will prove a much larger challenge for Munster than their home defeat of Castres, but it is another winnable game, as is the home tie with Exeter, with the side from Devon looking out of sorts.
The key clash in Pool 2 comes on January 11th, when Gloucester host Munster at Kingsholm. The Cherry and Whites are just three points behind Munster and having beaten Exeter away this past weekend, look like they can make a real push for qualification, especially if they can consolidate that win with another one this weekend, this time at home.
In Pool 3, there have been no surprises as Saracens have taken control, winning all three games and picking up two bonus points. There’s a good chance they sweep all six games, but even if they don’t, they are red-hot favourites to top the group and the more interesting question will be can Glasgow Warriors do enough to wrap up a best runners-up spot.
Glasgow’s excellent win in Lyon at the weekend has taken them to 10 points and, if both sides maintain their current form, you would expect no less than a further four points at Scotstoun in Round 4. A trip to Allianz Park in January is unlikely to offer much, but a home tie against the Cardiff Blues could add another four or five points to the tally. If the Warriors can finish with 18-20 points, they should make the quarter-finals.
Pool 4 is becoming increasingly straightforward, too, with Racing 92 offering a similar dominance to Saracens, having won three games, with two also offering up bonus points. Their run-in is slightly harder than Saracens, with away trips to Welford Road and the Kingspan, but there will be little more than pride for the Scarlets to play for in Paris in Round 6.
At nine points, Ulster are in the mix for a best runners-up spot, although the likes of Toulouse and Glasgow are in stronger positions. The province could find themselves going up against the loser of the Gloucester vs Munster game and one of Newcastle Falcons or Edinburgh, for that final spot.
Speaking of Edinburgh, they took control of Pool 5 on Friday evening, besting a depleted and rotated Newcastle side. That said, Newcastle can regain control of the group this weekend at Kingston Park, if they bring back their key players and overcome the challenge of the Scottish side. Can Newcastle get enough bodies back at tighthead in time, though?
Falcons will fancy their chances against Toulon at Kingston Park in January, but even with Montpellier looking out of sorts, a win away at the GGL Stadium seems a big ask for the Premiership side, especially with one eye on the relegation battle in their domestic competition. Edinburgh also face off against those two French sides in January, but their collection of three bonus points in their opening three games just gives them the edge over Newcastle at this point.
Predicted quarter-finals:
Saracens (1st) vs Gloucester (8th)
Leinster (2nd) vs Glasgow Warriors (7th)
Racing 92 (3rd) vs Toulouse (6th)
Munster (4th) vs Edinburgh (5th)
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Comments on RugbyPass
Anna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to commentsWe had during the week twilight footy, twilight cricket, tw golf plus there was the athletics club. Then the weekend was rugby 15s plus the net ball, really busy club scene back then but so much has changed and rugby has suffered. And it was all about changing lifestyles.
6 Go to commentsIn the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getting to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
6 Go to commentsROG’s contract is until 2027. The conversation about a successor to Galthie after RWC 2027 may be starting now. We can infer that Galthie’s reign stops then. He is throwing the Irish Coaching Job angle in because he is Irish. The next Irish coach MUST be Leo Cullen. As well as being the best coach available, coaching the vast majority of Irish Internationals week in week out, he has shown incredible skill at recruiting the best coaching staff for the job in hand. That was a failing in France. Cullen is a shrewd guy and if there is a need for foreign coaches underneath him he won’t hesitate. Rightly so. Ireland does need to start to bring Irish coaches through. Not just at the professional level but we need to train coaches to man new pathways for developing kids from schools/clubs up through the divisions.
8 Go to commentsNo Islam says it must rule where it stands Thus it is to be deleted from this planet Earth
18 Go to commentsThis team probably does not beat the ABs sadly Not sure if BPA will be available given his signing for Force but has to enter consideration. Very strong possibility of getting schooled by the AB props. Advantage AB. Rodda/Skelton would be a tasty locking combination - would love to see how they get on. Advantage Wallabies. Backrow a risk of getting out hustled and outmuscled by ABs. Will be interesting to see if the Blues feast on the Reds this weekend the way they did the Brumbies we are in big trouble at the breakdown. Great energy, running and defence but goalkicking/general kicking/passing quality in the halves bothers me enormously. SA may have won the World Cup for a lot of the tournament without a recognised goalkicker but Pollard in the final made a difference IMO. Injuries and retirements leave AB stocks a bit lighter but still stronger. 12 and 13 ABs shade it (Barret > Paisami, Ione = Ikitau, arguably) Interesting clash of styles on the wings - Corey Toole running around Caleb Clark and Caleb running over the top of Toole. Reece vs Koro probably the reverse. Pretty even IMO. 15s Kelleway = Love See advantage to ABs man for man, but we are not obviously getting slaughtered anywhere which makes a nice change. Think talent wise we are pretty even and if our cohesion and teamwork is better than the ABs then its just about doable.
11 Go to commentsCompletely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
6 Go to comments1.97m and 105Kg? Proportionately, probably skinnier than me at 1.82 and 82kilos. He won’t survive against the big guys at that weight.
55 Go to commentsThe value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
8 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
11 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
61 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
11 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
61 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
8 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
61 Go to comments