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Can’t wait for the Super Rugby final? Good news, the first half is this weekend.

By Jamie Wall
during the round two Super Rugby match between the Chiefs and the Lions at FMG Stadium on March 5, 2016 in Hamilton, New Zealand.

Missing the Lions already? Well, the other Lions are back playing this weekend. The 14-1 finalists from last year, who also wear red jerseys, are part of an interesting final round of Super Rugby – one that could see them get the home final they seemingly tossed away 12 months ago. But it’s a long shot.

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Of course, everyone was banking on the final being held in Johannesburg as soon as the 2017 draw came out. The Lions have played no NZ sides so far this year, and they’ve only dropped one game to have 61 points going into the business end of the season.

And yet, in an ironic twist, it’s that one loss that could cost them so dearly. It was at the same venue and same opponent as their crucial loss last year – the Jaguares in Buenos Aires. Back in July of last year the Lions infamously sent an understrength team to BA, losing to the Jags and handing the top spot on the table ultimately to the Hurricanes. A few weeks later and the Lions found themselves playing in their first final – not in a warm, packed Ellis Park, but an horrifically cold and hostile Westpac Stadium.

Now this year it seems the Jags could be their undoing again. Despite all the talk of the competitiveness of the NZ Conference, the Crusaders have unbelievably made it through to this point without losing a game. They sit atop the competition table with 63 points, and will be gunning for a perfect season for the second time in their history.

The Lions are relying on the Crusaders losing in Wellington to the Hurricanes, another irony given that was the scene of their grand final demise last year. Meanwhile they need to get over the Sharks in Durban, however they’ll know whether that’s an exercise in futility given that the Wellington fixture happens first.

Of course, both teams actually have to make it through the playoffs in order for the potential Christchurch or Johannesburg finals to take place. History is firmly on their sides though: the team that has finished top of the regular season table has not only gone on to host, but also win Super Rugby finals five out of the last six years.

Although the main focus will be on the battle for the top spot, the Hurricanes themselves have added motivation on top of being the spoilers for the Crusaders. A win at home will mean they’ll most likely have a playoff game in Canberra against the Brumbies, while a loss will mean a long trip to Cape Town for a match with the Brumbies.

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Meanwhile, the Sharks spot at eighth is unlikely to change even if they win – they need a bonus point victory and the Highlanders to lose to the Reds. The latter half of that equation isn’t going to happen, as the game is in Dunedin and the Reds are horrible. The best scenario for the Sharks is that they end up playing the Lions again next weekend in Johannesburg, their only other fate is a trip to Christchurch.

So while this weekend doesn’t quite have the potential for the insanity that we saw in the last regular season finale, it’s still all on for the main contenders. Given how much home ground advantage plays in the big dance, it’s pretty much the first half of the final right here.

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mitch 2 hours ago
The Wallabies team Joe Schmidt must pick to win back Bledisloe Cup

Rodda will be a walk up starter at lock. Frost if you analyse his dominance has little impact and he’s a long way from being physical enough, especially when you compare to Rodda and the work he does. He was quite poor at the World Cup in his lack of physicality. Between Rodda and Skelton we would have locks who can dominate the breakdown and in contact. Frost is maybe next but Schmidt might go for a more physical lock who does their core work better like Ryan or LSL. Swain is no chance unless there’s a load of injuries. Pollard hasn’t got the scrum ability yet to be considered. Nasser dominated him when they went toe to toe and really showed him up. Picking Skelton effects who can play 6 and 8. Ideally Valetini would play 6 as that’s his best position and Wilson at 8 but that’s not ideal for lineout success. Cale isn’t physical enough yet in contact and defence but is the best backrow lineout jumper followed by Wright, Hanigan and Swinton so unfortunately Valetini probably will start at 8 with Wright or Hanigan at 6. Wilson on the bench, he’s got too much quality not to be in the squad. Paisami is leading the way at 12 but Hamish Stewart is playing extremely well also and his ball carrying has improved significantly. Beale is also another option based on the weekend. Beale is class but he’s also the best communicator of any Australian backline player and that can’t be underestimated, he’ll be in the mix.

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