Having dual lock/loose forward cover could decide these three World Cup squad spots for the All Blacks
With squads of 31 allowed for the Rugby World Cup in Japan, most teams will be taking 9 locks and loose forwards. It’s a tight area that needs a mix of specialism and flexibility. Mike Rehu takes a look at what the All Blacks squad might look like for these positions.
With Sam Cane’s successful outing off the pine for the Chiefs at the weekend, it would seem that six lock/loose forward places are sealed in the All Blacks’ RWC squad. Cane showed no physical effects coming back and more importantly has lost none of his love for contact.
When you reel off the names Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Scott Barrett, Kieran Read, Ardie Savea and Sam Cane you are talking about half a dozen of the best players in the world. No argument there.
That leaves space for only three more players to cover these two positions. Liam Squire has not played for seven months, withdrawing from the Highlanders’ bench two weeks ago and now is out of action for ‘personal reasons’. It adds a load of intrigue on who will be the other three players on the plane.
All Blacks’ coach Steve Hansen has consistently supported Squire and with good reason. At the peak of his powers, he is a destructive force with the ball and on defence. Supporters of other candidates’ point to the fact that Liam Squire has never started three tests in a row, an important point when the spectre of three knockout games against the best in the world have to be played in three weeks.
However, if Squire’s personal issues go away, he gets on the field and Hansen follows through on being faithful to his experienced troops you have seven pros who will form the pod that will be selected for the big games.
If we anticipate that Hansen will go with experience in the South African pool game and knock out matches you would look at a back row and locking unit of 8. Read 7. Cane 6. Squire 5. Retallick 4. Whitelock and have Barrett and Savea off the bench for impact.
It would appear that you have at least 12 other players who have a chance at the final two spots. Let’s have a shot at giving them a percentage mark of making the squad. My choices may surprise you. What would your choices be?
Patrick Tuipulotu – 37%
“Wait!” I hear you say, “there’s only room for three locks and you have them already!” My theory is that Scott Barrett is ranked 2nd behind Squire in the blindside flanker position, so if Squire goes down and Barrett is judged as a swing player rather than specialist lock you will need one more big man. Paddy has a great mixture of line out ability (29 takes, 2 steals), hard yards up the middle and offloading (11 defenders beaten and 12 successful offloads).
Dalton Papalii – 36%
If you have a true lock in Tuipulotu in the squad, the last player needs to cover all loose forward positions and Papalii has the inside running. His Super numbers are looking great for 2019, even though he is flying under the radar. He’s averaging over 5 metres a carry this season (more than Savea), two tries, has great turnover numbers with low errors (12 made, 3 lost) and he’s a line out target. He is the third option for all loose forward positions. (8 Read, Savea, Papalii. 7 Cane, Savea, Papalii. 6 Squire, Barrett, Papalii).
Vaea Fifita – 35%
If they don’t go for Tuipolotu then Fifita will be the choice to step up as the 4th lock/3rd 6 role. If Barrett is the 2nd ranked starting 6 and started he would probably be pencilled in to move to lock after 60 minutes and Fifita would take over at 6. This leaves us with less power in a 4th lock option for pool games/injuries but more athleticism. Fifita’s line out work has been fantastic this season, 42 takes and 5 steals but his error rate around the field has been very high, 12 turnovers given away on dropped balls and his tackle completion rate is down at 81.6%.
Shannon Frizzell – 32%
Frizell would be the preferred candidate over Fifita if they want the muscle. He is a major asset is around the field; 6 tries, and an almost 95% tackle completion rate. He has beaten 50% more defenders than Fifita and has 400% more offloads with less time on the field. If he was selected over Tuipolotu and Fifita we’d be exposed at lock.
Matt Todd – 25%
Todd would vault into contention if Cane or Savea went down. As you’d expect, he has a high tackle count (125 at 93.3% completion) great turnover rate (16 made, 10 lost) but low carry rates. Sadly suffers from being the third choice and a specialist openside.
Tom Robinson, Luke Jacobson and Luke Whitelock – 8%
The Big Red had been the form 6 in Super rugby until Jacobson started his startling run. Jacobson’s rise has muddied the water over both of them. The Chief’s stocks could rise if Papalii is injured and the selectors are looking for an athlete who covers 6,7 and 8. These two guys are locked in for the future but it’s difficult to see the selectors giving them the nod this year. A speculative run in warm up games perhaps?
Whitelock is a defensive leader and senior player, he could come into contention if Read was not right.
Akira Ioane – 5%
Has improved his work rate and churning out some good stats. He has played massive minutes (920), his tackle rate is 91.3% and he is the top 20 for Carries, defenders beaten and turnovers. Certainly has a shot at 8 for next year with no Read although it’s interesting that the Highlanders tried Frizell at 8 at the weekend.
Jordan Taufua and Elliot Dixon – 3%
Both players are great grafters and have experience but there would have to be a miserable run of injuries before they are in the frame.
Sam Warburton discusses Wales’ World Cup chances:
Comments on RugbyPass
Joe will have had a good chat with Dave Rennie, a smart move to begin with while it’s doubtful Fast Eddie will be consulted? Plenty of Aus players hitting top form so they should go OK.
3 Go to commentsMmm. Not sure I like this article or see it as necessary.
1 Go to commentsBlackadder but no Finau! 😀 It’s Razor so you are probably right, plus Taylor at 2…
9 Go to commentsThe strongest possible AB side would actually include Aaron Smith, Bodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Leicester Fainga'anuku, Shannon Frizzel.. don’t get me started on the rest of the injury hit brigade that got flung on the heap so left. Many a whole not getting filled as of yet.
9 Go to commentsI don’t think anyone knows what Schmidt will do, one thing is certain it ain’t gonna be all the picks we on the keyboard will think. My impression of him is that he will be looking at who can step up and what is the best combination. He will ignore individuals as he looks for guys who can build a powerful team and not just guys who can make a flashy run or ignore the winger as they want to score themselves.
3 Go to commentsSome dumb selections there. Not Porecki Not Donaldson Not Gordon Not Lonegran - both Not Nic White - Fines instead Not Liam Wright Not Paisami Definitely not Vunivalu Other than that not bad.
3 Go to commentsI've never been convinced that Patty T is a test match all black. Otherwise I probably agree it's the best side available to beat the poms. Caveat that Codie Taylor is yet to be seen and could very likely warrant selection by June. I hope that Razor brings the young loosies, half backs and locks into the training squad and develops/ selects the best
9 Go to commentsYou doing the same thing I disliked about the example of Samisoni Taukei'aho, Nick. He’s great the way he is, you’re trying to do what modern-day coaches frustrate me doing, turning everyone into the perfect athlete. Next thing you’ll be telling me you’ll bench him until he’s hit that arbitrary marker, and can’t overtake the current guy who’s doing all his workons. He’s a young Kieran Read, through and through, plays wide and has threat, mainly (and evident in your clips) through his two hand carry and speed. Just let him work on that, or whatever he wants, and determine his own future. Play God and you risk the players going sideways, like Read did, instead of being a Toutai Kefu. I mean I was in the same camp for a while, wanting our tight five to have the size, and carry ability, as the teams they were getting beat by. Now I’m starting to believe those teams just have better skilled and practiced individuals, bigger by upwards of 5kg sometimes, sure, but more influentially they have those intrinsic skills of trust and awareness. Basically our guys just didn’t know wtf they were doing. Don’t think I’m trying to prove a point here but hasn’t Caleb Clarke been in much better form this year, or does he just ‘look’ better now that he’s not always trying to use his size?
44 Go to commentsThe pack lacks a little in height for the line out and I wouldn’t be completely convinced by some of the combinations till we see it in action.
9 Go to commentsThe side is good but lacks experience. International playing bona fides udually trumps super rugby form for good reason. And incumbents are usually stuck with. Codie Taylor should start or come off the bench. B Barrett will start at fullback. Blackadder has not earned the position, Finau has. TJs experience and competitiveness earns him a starting role, Christie or Ratima off the bench
9 Go to commentsPretty good side. Scott Barrett should be the captain. Ethan Blackadder a great choice at blindside. He is going to go from strength to strength having made a couple of starts for the Crusaders. Scott Robertson rates him highly. Perenara could start a no 9.
9 Go to commentsI question and with respect. Was enough done over the last few years to bring through new blood knowing the Whitelocks and co couldn’t last forever. There should have been more done to future proof the team. New squad new coach, he and they weren’t set up well. IMO
6 Go to commentsJacobsen will definitely be in the 23
9 Go to commentsLots of discussion points, Ben, but two glaring follies IMO: 1. Blackadder at 6. Has done nothing so far this season to justify his selection. Did you see him going backwards in contact at the weekend? Simply has not got the physical presence at 6: we need a Scott Barrett or a Finau (or wildcard Ah Kuoi), beasts who are big enough to play lock, like Frizzell. If Barret played at 6, Paddy could be joined at lock by Vai’i or one of the young giants we need to promote, like Darry or Lord (if he ever gets on the field). Blackadder best left to join the queue for 7. 2. Not even a mention for Christie? Ratima gets caught at crucial times at the back of the ruck when he hesitates on the pass. The only way he starts would be if Christie and TJ are injured.
9 Go to commentsWhat a dagg in more ways than one
6 Go to commentsRegroup come back next year but sack some of the coaching team and don't be like the ABs last minute sacking. If Crusaders don't do well ABs don't do well.
5 Go to commentsProctor Definitely inform again this year had a hell of a season last year and this year is looking even better. Still mixed feelings about Ioane tho.
4 Go to commentsDagg is still trying to get enough headlines to make himself relevant enough to get a job. The Crusaders went back to square one at all levels. Shelve this season and nail the next one.
6 Go to commentsHe was in such great form. Sad for him but only a short term injury and it will be great to see him back for the finals.
1 Go to commentsAfter their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
5 Go to comments