It is only one game into the Joe Schmidt era, but there is no sign of the flickering deja vu at number 10 stopping any time soon. The picture at fly-half for the new Australian coaching kingpin is less ‘sliding doors’, and more of an ever-spinning hotel entrance – the kind that spits visitors out at the same place they entered in those classic comedy sketches, like Peter Sellers’ ‘The Return of the Pink Panther’, complete with their luggage.
On Saturday evening at the Allianz Stadium in Sydney it was Noah Lolesio’s turn; or rather, his fifth turn in the driving seat. The young Brumbies pivot got his first chance to steer the ship under Dave Rennie in the July 2021 series against France, only to be replaced by a resurrected Quade Cooper midway through the Rugby Championship in September.
Lolesio was back for the England tour the following year, then dropped for Cooper and fellow veteran James O’Connor in the first two rounds of the 2022 Rugby Championship; returning for the round three win over the Springboks; out of favour again for another ‘golden oldie’ [Bernard Foley] in the double-header versus the All Blacks which concluded the tournament.
Lolesio started one game on the end of year tour in 2022, a one-point loss to Italy which was the main catalyst for Rennie’s sacking and the knee-jerk appointment of Eddie Jones. The Brumby man did not play at all under Jones and was excluded from the 2023 World Cup squad which represented Australia in France.
That potted history is typical of the selectorial anguish the Wallabies have experienced at their key playmaking spot in recent times. Since Lolesio first pulled on the famous green-and-gold jersey only three seasons ago, no fewer than six different men have been picked to start at 10. The days of Stephen Larkham, Michael Lynagh and Mark Ella are a dim and distant memory, a ghostly echo of the stability that once was. Lolesio has already packed a career’s worth of heartache into his youthful frame at the tender age of 24.
Since Noah Lolesio’s debut in Oct 2020, the Wallabies’ win percentage has been around 30%.
When Noah starts, it’s 45%.
He’s beaten the Springboks three times.
The French twice.
England, Scotland, and Argentina.
And drawn with the All Blacks.He’s only 24. pic.twitter.com/sYRxWTihoD
— CarrickTalksRugby (@TalksRugby) July 6, 2024
Despite an encouraging overall start to his tenure, the first Test against Wales will have offered Schmidt precious few clues to the ultimate destination of the Wallaby number 10 jersey in the long term.
Australia did what Schmidt wanted, making 30 more carries than Wales, keeping the ball for 40 more phases and enjoying a full four extra minutes of possession inside the visitors’ red zone. So far, so good. Under Schmidt’s stewardship, the Wallabies will play more off nine than they do off 10. On Saturday evening, Jake Gordon had use of the ball in a ratio of roughly four-to-one compared to his half-back partner. For the visitors the ratio was two-to-one.
That makes what the 10 does when he has the chance to show his wares more important, rather than less. The defence will tend to condense in the area 5-10 metres either side of the ruck, so the 10 needs to be able to pull the trigger when he has the chance.
One of the issues for Lolesio and Schmidt is an over-reliance on the kicking game in those critical moments. The most obvious instance occurred in the 61st minute, with only five points separating the teams.
Although Andrew Kellaway is free out on the right, the cross-kick is surplus to requirements when the Wallabies’ most dangerous runner, full-back Tom Wright, is in acres of space only one simple pass away. Just give it, and run in support.
The choice of play even drew the ire of Tim Horan in Stan Sport’s commentary booth, and the ex-Wallaby centre is typically the last man to criticise those wearing the green and gold for the plays they don’t make.
“I don’t think there was any need for that [kick].
“There were others there. Keep the ball in hands when you have three-on-three – you can beat a defender from five [metres] out and you’re over. Low-percentage play from Noah.”
Schmidt quite naturally sprang to his playmaker’s defence at the post-match press conference:
“It would have been great if we’d scored. If it was on his fingertips, if it was perfect, I would be delighted.
“If he’d kicked it perfectly, I don’t think we’d be discussing it. We probably would discuss it and say, ‘Wow, what a great option!’
“It’s the fine margins in the game, isn’t it? If you get an option, you take it and you execute it right. There was a space there, absolutely. Andrew Kellaway scores if the kick is spot on, and it wasn’t far off.”
Another instance of the ‘automatic’ kick-pass had already occurred in similar circumstances earlier in the game.
Australia have just won turnover and are playing under advantage. All Lolesio needs to do to convert advantage into line-break, is notice Josh Flook steaming up on his right, then put him into a yawning hole with the short pass. The cross-kick is unnecessary but Lolesio does not appear aware of the options with ball in hand.
The point was rammed home when Queenslander Tom Lynagh came off the bench for the last 17 minutes.
The son of Aussie great Michael is quite prepared to play ‘simple hands’ and give Wright the opportunity to exploit a three-on-three situation from kick return. There does not even have to be an obvious hole in the defence. The broad strokes of a sharp contrast in philosophy can be viewed in the micro-detail of the game.
The other worry for Schmidt is Lolesio’s tendency to disappear as an attacking influencer from more prolonged phase-counts. At one 19-phase, three-minute sequence starting in the 48th minute, the forwards carried on 14 occasions, Gordon sniped twice from the base, and Wright and Hunter Paisami handled at first receiver three times between them. Lolesio did not direct the play once from his nominal spot in the team.
The short-hand can be viewed at a nine-phase sequence in the 16th minute.
The launch play from lineout is a switch between 12 Paisami and 11 Filipo Daugunu, followed by two forward drives out to the open-side of the field. Now you would be expecting Lolesio to stamp his authority on proceedings when the ball comes back to the near-side, right? Wrong. After another forward drive back to the left, it is Paisami who takes control at first receiver, not his fly-half.
When the ball is spun out to the right again, Wright is in pole playmaking position.
Another two phases pass with Lolesio haunting the murky backdrop and Wales inching ever closer to achieving turnover. The prophecy finally materialised, the sequence finishing with the Brumbies 10 never having had hands on ball in the prime distributing role.
After one sharp snipe from lineout by Gordon, Lolesio got more pay from assuming the half-back role and cleaning out on the following phase.
By the time Lolesio has extricated himself from cleanout duty, neither he nor Lukhan Salakaia-Loto are in any position to receive the ball on the right touchline. Lolesio eventually made a pass from first receiver on sixth phase, and Taniela Tupou promptly dropped the ball in surprise.
Waratahs’ scrum-half Gordon – the senpai to Lolesio’s k?hai – was suitably protective of the younger man in his comments after the game.
“We had a pretty short run into the first game, and I think the expectation was that it was never going to be perfect,” he said.
“Rugby’s never perfect, but I thought for the majority, we [the halfback combination] played at the right ends of the field, our distribution was strong and, yeah, I’ve enjoyed playing with Noah and I thought he was strong.”
There were many aspects of Schmidt’s first game in charge of the Wallabies that a true blue, green-and-gold supporter would have enjoyed: Geoff Parling’s lineout was strong, winning over 90% of its own feed and stealing four balls on the Welsh throw; the scrum was dominant, at least for the 41 minutes Tupou lasted on the Wallaby tight-head. Australian ball control in possession was good, allowing only two pilfers in 118 rucks and shutting a poacher as proficient as Tommy Reffell out of the game.
But Schmidt will be only too aware of the areas which need improvement. Finding ways to involve the best Australian goal-kicker in Super Rugby Pacific more effectively as a play-maker, and making better decisions when he arrives, will be at the very top of his list of priorities.
If Lolesio cannot achieve a more rounded connection with the forwards in front of him, and the backs outside him, his fifth stint in the 10 shirt may prove to be as brief a flirtation as the other four. The Wallaby head honcho may not have a Johnny Sexton or a Richie Mo’unga to work with, but he knows the endless comings and goings at number 10 need to stop.
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