If he was Dave Rennie, Joe Schmidt would probably already be on his bike and looking for a new job. It was three years to the day a 28-27 defeat in Florence did for the last Kiwi to coach the Wallabies. The ex-Glasgow Warriors supremo did not even make it to the 2023 World Cup. He was sacked a few weeks after that humbling defeat at the Stadio Artemio Franchi and replaced by Eddie Jones. We all know how that turned out.
As an international coach with a proven record in both hemispheres, Schmidt is no domestique, he is a contender for the maillot jaune, but he is crawling towards the finish line of his own contract with Rugby Australia at the back of the peloton rather than cruising across it with gas to spare.
The 26-19 loss to the Azzurri in Udine was the Wallabies’ fifth defeat in their past six outings and dropped Schmidt to a 38% win record in 2025. That heady afternoon at Ellis Park on 16 August, when Australia scored 38 unanswered points to crush the world champions, seems a world away from the current reality.
With the hors categorie climbs of Ireland and France still to come on tour that win ratio could take another hit. To recycle one of Baseball icon Yogi Berra’s malapropisms, the future ain’t what it used to be. If the Wallabies do not beat both of the European giants in their remaining two games, they are unlikely to secure a seeding as one of the top six nations for their home World Cup in 2027. It could be 2023, all over again.
The very worst version of Schmidt’s Wallabies appeared on Saturday. They enjoyed a full seven more minutes of attacking possession than their opponents, they built more than twice as many rucks [137 to 60] but they only gained the same number of metres [383m to 346m]. Australia needed a massive 46 rucks to generate every line-break made. Just to rub salt in the wounds, the brace of Azzurri tries were scored by two wings with strong Australian backgrounds. Monte Ioane is the nephew of Queensland flyer Digby, and Louis Lynagh is the son of Wallaby legend Michael.
Schmidt’s area of coaching speciality has always been the breakdown, but over the past two matches at Twickenham and in Italy his Wallabies have conceded no fewer than nine pilfers and 13 penalties in that department. The total of 26 penalties conceded so far will not win you too many games at this level, and the referees have both been European – Georgian Nika Amashukeli whistled the match in England while Irishman Andrew Brace was in charge on Saturday.
It confirmed a pattern I observed towards the latter stages of the Rugby Championship:
“The Wallabies have won the penalty count in all three of their games involving New Zealand referees [plus 11 cumulatively] but are sitting at minus 12 in the past two matches managed by Europe-based officials. The number of penalties conceded at the ruck has risen with each successive game, in the following progression 1-3-6-7-8.”
With Englishmen Karl Dickson and Luke Pearce lying in wait for the games in Dublin and Paris, the outlook does not get any better.
Schmidt sounded properly defeated and deflated in his post-match presser.
“I said progress isn’t linear, but that was a flat performance,” the coach said. “That’s a dip we can’t afford to have. And we’ve got two massive games coming up now, so I think we’re going to have to just recuperate as best we can and throw everything into the Irish game.
“Once we gave up a penalty in our half, they accumulated those four penalties [goals] in the first half. Then we matched it with two good tries, but in the second half, I just felt we overplayed.
“We were static, and we really need to go back and just try to get a little bit more energy about us, particularly around that breakdown. We should not be giving up those breakdown penalties. I felt a couple of them were tough, but we’ve got to be tough enough to take that.”
Schmidt’s skipper Harry Wilson chimed in on the number of pilfer penalties given up: “Credit to Italy, they made [the breakdown] a mess. It was a bit of a lottery and we’ve got to be a lot better there.” Back to the drawing board, then.
The return of Carter Gordon in the problem position at 10 highlights the ‘latent instability’ of Australian rugby. Gordon is the sixth outside-half Schmidt has tried and he has only just recrossed the great divide from the NRL’s Gold Coast Titans. But he was still good enough to start ahead of every other contender for the spot with no games of union under his belt. Carter Gordon was playing rugby from memory, and that was good enough given the current state of Australia rugby.
In the event, the performance of the ex-Melbourne Rebel at the Stadio Friuli was patchy but promising. The comments Schmidt made from the other side of the fence while coaching New Zealand against Gordon in 2022 still rang true three years later.
“I spoke very briefly to Carter after the Dunedin Test when we were on opposite sides and I respectfully said to him ‘well played’. I thought he had a cracking first half and he was part of the pressure the Wallabies applied on that day. It was a Wallabies side that really got on top in that first half and Carter was part of that. There were glimpses of what he’s capable of.”
Although there were several glimpses of a brighter future with the blond playmaker pulling the strings in Udine, the game began with the unfamiliar sight of the kicking duties at restart and off the tee handled by full-back Andrew Kellaway. It was part of a plan to protect Gordon from too much unfamiliar traffic coming his way, and on defence he was removed from the front line and shifted to the backfield whenever possible.
Gordon’s positioning on the right side of the Wallaby backfield triggered an unwanted memory of the kind of aerial bombardment which had cost the Melburnian his starting job with Eddie Jones’ Wallabies at the 2023 World Cup.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 9, 2025
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 9, 2025
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 9, 2025
The first aerial misjudgement probably cost the Wallabies a quarter-final spot ahead of the flying Fijians, and it certainly cost Gordon the starting berth in the final showdown versus Wales, where he was replaced by Ben Donaldson as Wallaby playmaker in chief. The Azzurri clearly expected to locate Gordon in exactly the same place in Udine and they were not disappointed.
The third clip was not the only time Gordon was robbed of the ball in contact, suggesting league habits had firmly taken root.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 9, 2025
There was also a league bias on attack, with Gordon running and passing 32 times and kicking on only four occasions. One chip was lobbed innocuously down the throat of Italy full-back Ange Capuozzo while another punt went straight into touch on the full.
But the unique run/pass threat Gordon presents among the current crop of Australian number 10s, most especially when play is moving from left to right, showed no signs of rust.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 9, 2025
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 9, 2025
The ex-Rebel has the aggression and vision to spot the hole, and the speed and strength to run through it. Moreover, he can still deliver a 15-metre pass off his left hand and hit Corey Toole perfectly in stride at the end of the play.
The prodigal son asterisked his comeback with a try just before being replaced in the 54th minute.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 9, 2025
The ball is propelled forward off Wilson in the tackle and it is hard indeed to see how it can be anything other than a knock-on, but Gordon still has the footballing nous to pick it up and step his old Rebels team-mate Ioane to score. The Tifosi Udinese hooted their disapproval as head coach Gonzalo Quesada vented his frustration on the hoardings, but at least there was one hopeful lick of flame to warm the hearts of Wallaby supporters on a desperate evening in the Venezia.
As kids, Yogi Berra and Joe Garagiola grew up living across the street from one another in the same Italian neighbourhood in St. Louis, and both went on to have long careers as catchers in pro baseball. Garagiola used to quip “Not only was I not the best catcher in the Major Leagues, I wasn’t even the best catcher on my street!” The pair remained friends and when Berra invited Garagiola to his house in New Jersey, he added some trademark directions: “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”
Despite green shoots of promise against the Lions and South Africa, there is precious little sense, at this moment in time, that Australian rugby knows where it is headed. Since 2019 it has ploughed its way through a succession of top coaching minds and reduced each one to rubble. By the end of November, the collective genius of Rennie, Jones and Schmidt could be sitting at a sub-40% win rate with the Wallabies, and Australia is in grave danger of entering its own World Cup as an unseeded nation. It is not just the fork in the road which is unclear, the highway itself is beginning to vanish.
How did Gordon go in Leauge, did he develop or use any strengths there? Did he look more like a second five?
Aside from JOC returning some of the selection issues we’ve talked about have appeared again. What is the point of LSL, Pietsch and CDC bring on tour
No wonder I don't go there any longer. He sounds like just the sort of person Doran would be comfortable with.
Dunno but he gets the villagers riled up with their pitchforks and torches!
Who the hell is Will Evans and what are his qualifications.
Which leads to the question why didn’t rugby adopt the league defence before? Something changed in the calculation of what was more beneficial to the team, contesting the ruck or strong flat defence. I suspect it was a chicken or the egg thing going on from the late ‘90’s onwards with the law tinkering.
The new Voice of the Roar is… ‘Will Evans’ 😁
Things changed with the adoption of League style defences OM - one man into ruck everyone else blacketing the width odf the field. It meant attacks seldom had to add more than two or three ppl to the cleanout.
I take your point about games from 1976 but if rugby wants to grow professionally the product now is infinitely better.
Agree
First item is to simplify the law book!
Agree, poor rugby refereeing is widespread and is not helped by rules that also need an overhaul. Brett Robinson has a lot of work to do