Last week it was the Cake Tin in Wellington, six days later it was Ashton Gate in Bristol. The setting was very different but the outcome was the same, a double humiliation for one of the greatest nations on planet rugby. The All Blacks have all but given up on their chances of winning the Rugby Championship and the Black Ferns have forfeited the title of world champions at the semi-final stage of the World Cup. It has been a very bad week for New Zealand rugby.
Given New Zealand has been sitting atop the summit in both versions of the game for most of the last 25 years, winning eight of 14 World Cups, the 43-10 Springbok demolition and the 34-19 loss to Canada constitute a growing crisis in the shaky isles.
In the golden decade from 2008-2018, the All Blacks profited from a coaching legacy built around ‘three wise men’ who had all cut their coaching teeth abroad. The wisdom of Sir Graham Henry, Sir Steve Hansen and Sir Wayne Smith did not come cheap. Three knighthoods and four World Cups are the glittering pearls but they were purchased at great price, in the grit of self-imposed exile from the All Blacks for Smith in 2001, and Henry and Hansen’s double discharge from Wales duty in 2002 and 2004.
‘Ted’ was a broken man after a traumatic tour with the British and Irish Lions in 2001, and ‘Shag’ became the only Wales coach in history to leave the post of his own accord three years later. ‘Smithy’ had already resigned from the All Blacks job because he felt responsible for two consecutive losses to Australia: “I didn’t want to go out and meet anyone. I remember digging a rill [moat] in the backyard.” All three entered the belly of the beast to re-emerge as the best of the best: men seeing with new eyes, the finest coaching crew in the history of the game, bar none.
No member of the current New Zealand coaching staff has tested their understanding of the game to the absolute limit, or honed their skills in a hostile foreign climate. Nothing has melted fully in the crucible, to be reformed at a higher level. Furthermore, NZR has chosen not to import coaches who might have the relevant experience forged elsewhere – to wit Joe Schmidt, Vern Cotter or John Mitchell.
As ex-Springbok World Cup winner Jake White observed in his Rugby Pass column last week:
“Twelve years on from James Kerr’s excellent [book] ‘Legacy’, the All Blacks are in a rut…
“[Scott Robertson] has lost six Tests in his first 21 as All Blacks coach and that would have to be one of the poorest records of any All Blacks coach. There are big questions to be answered.
“Can the All Blacks and their fans publicly accept that 43-10 loss? What will happen if they lose their Eden Park record to Australia? Traditionally they have backed their [home-grown] coaches, but will they be forced to consider change?”
The home-grown successors to the globe-trotting trifecta [Robertson and Ian Foster] have trundled along at a 70% win rate, the same record which caused ‘the Professor’ to query his abilities and resign his post 24 years ago. There is little sign of the same powers of self-reflection now.
The succession planning process itself has come under the microscope since ‘Fozzy’s’ new book Leadership under Pressure appeared on the shelves. Robertson was appointed before Foster’s tenure had ended, prior to the 2023 World Cup. In the book, Schmidt, one of Foster’s two main assistants, is quoted as saying:
“The pressure was contributed by not just New Zealand Rugby, but people aiming up at ‘Fozzy’. There was a podcast, a pressure-point and an advertisement that [Robertson] wanted to win the World Cup with two different teams.
“He applied [more] pressure by starting an interview with ‘Bula’ [‘Hello’] when there was talk of the Fijian job being open. That was happening in the foreground, not the background. That was the tip of the iceberg, and it was bloody awkward for Foz.”
The effect was to short-circuit the due diligence that should have underpinned a new All Blacks appointment. After Robertson was appointed on 21st March 2023, Foster had eight months to navigate as national coach with the shadow of Razor looking over his shoulder, and any challenge for the top job Schmidt might have mounted was nipped in the bud. In the light of the progress Schmidt has made with his charges on the far side of the Tasman, that decision is looking questionable to say the least.
On the other side of the world, the Black Ferns’ semi-final defeat by Canada was their first loss in 11 years at the tournament, and the bitterness of the pill was sharpened by the knowledge that a team from a country without its own professional league had claimed the spoils.
Canada had even been forced to launch a crowdfunding campaign in March with a goal of raising CAN $1m to finance their World Cup campaign. As ex-Black Ferns skipper Les Elder pointed out on Sky Sport, it was the case of “a non-professional team that’s just beaten a professional team. They don’t have a strong men’s programme to fall back on and the infrastructure we [in New Zealand] have. England has that, France has that. This will change the landscape for women’s rugby.”
Canada may be the emerging power in women’s rugby, as I observed before the World Cup started, but the demise of the Black Ferns coming hot on the heels of a record loss by the All Blacks will prove very uncomfortable on the digestion for Kiwi rugby supporters.
The Professor was in charge three years ago when the New Zealand women turned the odds on the casino and edged England out on the final play of the final game at Eden Park, but it was Smithy’s last hurrah. NZR has struggled to replace his unique IP and coaching vision as much in women’s game as it has in the men’s.
In comparison to the stream of world-leading innovations flowing out of the game in New Zealand in that golden decade [2008-2018] the current pool is stagnant, and the unwillingness to look outside home shores is as much of a negative now as it was an unqualified positive back then.
On defence, New Zealand hung on to the old ‘man-watch’, mark-from-the-outside-in patterns for far too long. Hansen was using the same policy with Wales as long ago as 2003, and nothing much had changed by the time Ireland visited the land of the long white cloud with a modern, sophisticated, up-tempo attacking template in 2022. The outcomes from that tour speak for themselves.
‘Man-watch’ D theory tends to start from the edge of the pitch. You mark the last attacker first, and when the ball goes wide the inside defenders can drift across field automatically to link up with him/her. At its best, it can blanket the entire breadth of the field and outnumber the attack at the point of contact in the 15m-5m channels.
At its worst, it can leave holes near the ruck as defenders further out look to organize first, and this is what happened at Ashton Gate. Canadian scrum-half Justine Pelletier was named player of the match and that is nearly always a bad sign for this form of defence. You can view the basic pattern from this early kick return by full-back Julia Schell.
Even though Schell beats two Kiwi defenders en route to a long break down the left, the Black Ferns are still blanketing the full width of the pitch on the very next play instead of condensing around the ball, with their full-back positioned well beyond the far post. From the very beginnings of the game, Kévin Rouet’s charges had a plan to break the pattern.
The first wide phase from scrum is largely symbolic: Canada know they will find the New Zealand defence in good shape when the ball hits the far sideline, but the ‘money-phase’ is the hole it opens around the ruck for Pelletier on the second play.
The first pay-off on Canada’s game-planning investment arrived in only the seventh minute.
A chip regathered by Canada’s outstanding number 12 Alex Tessier provides the initial stretch, then Pelletier and co know there will be profit to be made straight up the middle, with Black Ferns defenders running straight past the site of the ruck and acting full-back Portia Woodman-Wickliffe struggling to cover the backfield space directly in behind them.
Canada was able to use the same attacking philosophy to develop attacks out of natural exit situations.
New Zealand are still okay when the ball is spun wide on second phase, but Canadian prop DaLeaka Menin has already made 25m up the ‘gut’ of that thinly-defended space behind the ruck.
The final critical example from the first half occurred on the edge of the New Zealand red zone.
On this occasion, Pelletier pulls the debris of the Kiwi inside defence across field before delivering a deft reverse pass to the woman who can do everything, lock Sophie de Goede, on a gallop straight up the middle. Once again, the twin guardians of the backfield are too far apart to help in cover.
There were many other instances of how New Zealand rugby is, to use Jake White’s words, ‘in a rut’. Like their men against France in July, the Black Ferns only realised the kicking game was the key to unlocking Canda’s D in the final half-hour, when the result had already been decided. The suppleness of understanding that always characterised the three wise men has disappeared.
As Kieran Read commented after the 43-10 shellacking, “Okay, something is not right there”. Robertson was rushed into the top job with indecent haste. Candidates with strong overseas IP have been routinely overlooked for the top coaching roles. The men struggled to beat France ‘B’ in July, while the women have not been the same since Smithy left.
Something is not quite right and the spirit of enterprise has gone missing. Which brings us all the way back to Canada’s women, breaking those glass ceilings and breathing in that cold, pioneering North American air. Whatever happens, the World Cup final at Twickenham will not hold any fears for them.
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