LONG READ How the Springboks are looking east for a World Cup three-peat

While the wider rugby world wrestles with the implications of a 7:1 bench, the architects of that controversial strategy are surging ahead.

2024 was a monumental year for the Springboks, yet recent appointments, squad selections and player movements indicate the back-to-back world champions will be even stronger at the 2027 tournament.

Consider the biggest headlines in South African rugby over the past few weeks: Felix Jones has rejoined the set-up after a year with England; Rassie Erasmus has named 84 players in his wider training group ahead of the 2025 Test season; and veteran fly-half Handre Pollard is set to return to the Bulls after a five-year stint in the northern hemisphere.

The third story is closely linked to the previous two. Indeed, while the respective franchises and players have their own interests and priorities, all and sundry are working towards a bigger goal, namely a World Cup three-peat.

A closer look reveals the South African landscape is changing – or has been changing for the past few years.

Tactically speaking, the Boks have used the 7:1 split sparingly since its debut in 2023, and have used the 6:2 formation less frequently in recent matches.

In terms of squad selection, Erasmus has retained a clutch of ageing veterans, but has also picked an exciting mix of younger stars and uncapped players.

Many have marvelled at South Africa’s selection policy, and the fact the Boks have won two World Cups with players who are scattered at clubs across the globe.

But that situation is also changing, with some of the most experienced players swapping the grind of European club rugby for the less demanding schedule in Japan. Others are leaving the northern hemisphere to join a South African franchise, with the aim of boosting their Test prospects.

An analysis of the player movements between 2019 and the present reveals an interesting and significant trend.

There are fewer key Boks in Europe than a couple of years ago, and by 2027, the bulk of the squad will be based in South Africa and Japan.

The figures in the graph also account for players who have featured in South Africa A matches over the past few seasons, and other uncapped individuals who have attended various alignment camps.

Overall, they show how the total number of overseas-based Boks has remained relatively consistent, while also highlighting how the majority has shifted from Europe to Japan.

Most of the overseas contingent was based in England and France in 2021 – when the Boks beat the British and Irish Lions. Since then, most of those players have either returned to South Africa or moved on to Japan. As many as 11 Boks are now based in the Far East.

When this observation was relayed to Erasmus at a press conference in Cape Town earlier this month, the Bok coach touched on the benefits of having so many players based in that part of the world.

“I will never say it’s better to have so many players in Japan, as it’s a shame that the South African fans don’t get to see those players competing locally,” he told RugbyPass.

“In terms of the positives, it’s not as taxing on the body for the guys based in Japan, and [having them there] helps us save a bit of money on the player salaries.

“It also provides room for the younger guys in South Africa to come through, and get a real opportunity at URC level.”

Key Boks such as Cheslin Kolbe, Damian de Allende, Faf de Klerk, Jasper Wiese, Lood de Jager and Franco Mostert have all spoken about the benefits of playing in Japan Rugby League One as opposed to the tournaments in England, France and Ireland.

The Japanese season runs from December to May, the match schedule is not as congested, and there is sufficient opportunity to rest and pursue specific conditioning goals.

What’s more, the Japan-based players are available for most of the Test season, and typically attend national training camps staged in the lead-up to the July internationals in South Africa.

By contrast, access to Europe-based players is severely limited, and most of those stars are only released in the week leading up to the first Test of the season. More often than not, the Bok coach won’t consider the latecomers for selection until the second Test.

As Erasmus suggests, current circumstances may encourage Boks exploring their overseas options to choose Japan over Europe.

The current 11-strong group includes Jesse Kriel, Kurt-Lee Arendse, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Kwagga Smith and Malcolm Marx. Apart from Arendse, who joined the Mitsubishi Dynaboars recently on a short-term contract, all of those players have improved since opting to base themselves in Japan.

While there are more key Boks in Japan than ever before, the number of veterans returning to South African shores is on the rise. Pollard’s homecoming could be described as the cherry on a much larger cake.

Duane Vermeulen has moved into a coaching role with the Boks since hanging up his boots. In time, Willie le Roux may occupy a similar position – and is currently operating as a player-coach at the Bulls and Boks. Elder statesmen such as Vincent Koch, Trevor Nyakane and Deon Fourie may not make it to 2027, but could play important mentorship roles during this period of transition.

Erasmus will be thrilled to have a South Africa-based group which includes vastly experienced and decorated individuals such as Eben Etzebeth, Siya Kolisi, Pollard and Cobus Reinach (who will join the Stormers at the start of the 2025/26 season) at his disposal.

Others such as André Esterhuizen and Wilco Louw – who won the English Premiership with Harlequins in 2021 – have flourished since returning to their homeland, and will play a greater role for the national side going forward. Fringe players such as Jason Jenkins (Leinster to the Sharks in 2024) and Nico Janse van Rensburg (Montpellier to the Bulls next season) have improved their chances of selection by returning, and will at the very least bolster South Africa’s impressive depth chart.

Geographical location is less important than access to the players and their workloads.

While the South Africa-based Boks are subjected to a never-ending season – playing club rugby between September and June, and Test matches from July to November – they are better managed than their Europe-based counterparts.

The local franchises have agreed to limit top players to 32 games and provide them with eight weeks of rest over a 12-month period. By contrast, European clubs tend to manage South Africans and other foreign players with their own goals in mind.

Wiese played a whopping 37 games across the 2021/22 season for Leicester Tigers. It’s little wonder he eventually moved to Japan, or so many others are now pursuing the same option.

Andy Edwards, the Springboks head of athletic performance who previously worked with Saracens, weighed in on the subject of player management – and specifically the management of older players – at the recent press conference

“The term ‘age is just a number’ is really relevant,” Edwards said.

“Just because a guy might be 35 or older, his rugby stats and career will reveal more about how dense his seasons have been. It doesn’t necessarily represent his actual age, if that makes sense.

“Lots of things come into that, how many games they’ve played, how much time they’ve had off, how much injury time they’ve had over their careers, how much we can rotate them within the international periods to sustain them up until the next World Cup.

“There are lots of different ways we’re looking at the ageing group. In 2023 we proved the guys could win a World Cup being the oldest average age in that competition.”

Erasmus’ selections he will continue to experiment in 2025 and 2026, before picking a more balanced squad come 2027.

Pollard’s impending return – and other player movements to South Africa and Japan – will certainly amplify the Boks’ depth and management strategies, and improve their chances of clinching an unprecedented hat-trick of World Cup titles.