One of the best-loved telly series of the 1970s and 1980s was It’ll be Alright on the Night, presented by English comedy writer Dennis Norden. Norden was perfect for the role. He had just the right amount of understated wit, a coy curl to his lip to introduce a reel of TV bloopers from both sides of the Atlantic, and keep the studio audience rolling in the aisles.
At Stade de France, Ireland had to get everything right on the on the night on a wet Thursday evening. In the event they produced a 50-minute blooper reel followed by an earnest half-hour recovery which showed what might have been. By the final whistle the bookies were proved right, and seven-to-one on odds proved too difficult for the men in green to overturn.
While France head coach Fabien Galthié will be gratified the reset button has been pressed so firmly after the traumatic loss to the Springboks in November, Andy Farrell cut a frustrated and dejected figure in an interview with Virgin Media after the game.
Ireland head coach Andy Farrell was not impressed with his team’s start to the Six Nations opener in Paris (Photo By Brendan Moran/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
“Obviously France were playing a different game to us in the first half,” he said.
“I suppose you make your own luck in this game and rightly so, with the way they went about their business.
“We created a few chances of the back of scraps on the floor or high balls, but that’s the game.
“You’ve got to show a bit of fight and intent and we lacked a bit of that in the first half, which is very disappointing.
“There was bit of a response – more than a bit of a response – in the second half, but France were worthy winners, that’s for sure.”
Ireland skipper Caelan Doris added a bit more flesh to the bones, lauding “a good impact off the bench” while lamenting the fact “our kick-chase let us down”. That is the essence of the game, distilled from a cold-press analytical post-mortem.
My second preview piece highlighted two areas where Ireland had to succeed in order to achieve a successful outcome. The first was gaining control of the game via the bench. The Irishmen won the battle of the benches in the last 30 minutes by 14 points to seven, building 38 of their 91 rucks [42%] in the last quarter, winning three penalties while conceding none at all in the last 25 minutes. Okay. So far, so good.
The camera started to whirr, and the blooper reel began with Ireland’s use of turnover ball in the first 49 minutes compared to their opponents. The previous article referenced how, at their peak in 2023, Ireland could score from a wider variety of scenarios, but over the past two seasons their capacity to score tries from any situation bar a set-piece launch has evaporated. Farrell’s side had scored a massive 86% of their tries from a scrum or lineout launch over the past two Six Nations.
That was one vital statistic which had to change for Ireland to build attacking momentum, but on the night, it was very rarely all right.
A colossal total of 78 kicks were launched into the dank Paris air – 39 by each side – but where Ireland focused exclusively on kicking back to their opponents, Les Bleus were prepared to return the ball by hand and make the second pass on any change of possession. Even Ireland’s two positive outcomes came off the boot: a raking left-foot 50/22 from full-back Jamie Osborne and a neat right-foot kick-pass from Sam Prendergast releasing Tommy O’Brien down the right.
By way of contrast, France combed all the sweetness they could out of the hive on turnover and kick returns: three clean breaks, two tries and two more penalties all oozing from the same rich resource. They were especially lethal on moves running right-to-left, in the direction of UBB flyer Louis Bielle-Biarrey.
The signs of a new French confidence in UBB methodology are plain to see: Thomas Ramos automatically making the second pass and doubling around Yoram Moefana to receive the offload and release Bielle-Biarrey down the left sideline, with converted back-rower Charles Ollivon swift enough to run the inside support line in the first clip; Ramos, Depoortere and Moefana interpassing to let loose the greyhound again for an even more spectacular run down the left 10 minutes later.
The impetus France generated from changes of possession did not need a deeper dive into the phase-count. Nine passes, one kick and a ruck were enough.
This time it is the little Union Bordeaux-Bègles magician Matthieu Jalibert, seeing the opportunity for a quick throw-in and re-energising the movement with a short chip over the top after Bielle-Biarrey finds his path blocked down the left; Ollivon obeying his back-row instincts, ranging far and wide on the opposite side of the field to finish the move.
A special mention for two Bleus who played their role in Galthié’s reconstruction of La Nouvelle France to the hilt: Mickael Guillard showed why he will become one of the finest big forwards of his generation. For those of us wondering who would do Gregory Alldritt’s donkey-work on the carry, the answer came via Guillard’s 16 carries for 82 metres with three busts. The young Lyonnais giant is two players wrapped in one body: a second row who does his work in the tight while finding the time to become the dominant forward carrier on either side. His average of one run every three minutes would have had even Alldritt nodding with approval.
The other hit in France’s extended UBB offence was perennial ‘best player in the world’ Antoine Dupont. To the many pondering how Dupont would gel with Jalibert, the world-leading scrum-half gave the most eloquent and selfless of answers. Although he dominated the kicking game, Dupont was content to let Jalibert conduct the orchestra on the run and via the pass. The UBB outside-half ran for more metres, made five more busts and had two more break- or try-assists than the great man. Indirectly, his success reflected Dupont’s generosity, like the moon reflecting the light of the sun.
What of Ireland? Had they played the first 50 minutes as well as they did the final 30, the game would have turned out to be more of the classic nail-biter desired by any true neutral. The key turnover and kick return table for the last half-hour had a different complexion.
In the last 30 minutes Ireland stopped kicking the ball back to France automatically, and they looked all the better for it. They may not have had as much offensive firepower as their hosts, but they were able to build more control of the game and force more mistakes out of their opponents. France’s ‘boom’ period, which took them out to a 29-0 lead on the scoreboard, ended in the 49th minute, after one more try and another clean break from turnover.
The last kick-away by O’Brien was the final straw for Ireland. They finally started to see a counter-attacking horizon which has become second nature for the faithful all the way up and down the Garonne.
When you get the benefit from a change of possession, make the second pass and try to keep the ball in hand rather than giving it straight back again. It is a simple lesson, dearly learned – and jolly deadly when implemented.
Where Ireland were setting trends in the game only three years ago, now they are struggling to stay abreast of them. This should be a wake-up call to Farrell and his cohorts. They only got half of the game plan right, and that is not enough. Not in Paris. Not on the opening night of the Six Nations.
Farrell solved the fourth-quarter puzzle but his charges realised far too late that turnover ball is king. Until Ireland stop kicking so obsessively, and start running for their lives in such scenarios, they will not find the skeleton key to unlock the door to success later in this tournament.
Galthié learned his own harsh lesson in November, and he has rebuilt his Bleus from the ground up. A more mobile back five in the forwards and a majority of UBB threequarters with key empathy added from two Toulousain backs, Dupont and Ramos. Chapeau, mon brave.
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J
JW 42 days ago
Yep, it was a more interesting article than most as it pulled from a variety of sources/opinions/perspectives, so you think might be a ‘complete’ picture.
It’s what we have been saying from the start. Thanks to the media beat up (mostly I think) a common opinion at the beginning was that Razor lacked experience and didn’t seem to appreciate how tough int footy was (due to portrayals about how he’s going to change things up and throw away the play book qoutes etc), and so when he came to that first interview after beating England and made multiple remarks along the lines of ‘woah, that’s test footy is it, man it’s tough’, I got the feeling something was wrong. I don’t think the actual pressure can change someone like Razor that quick, for me there is something more at play, outside and unnecessary pressure.
Because he knows what test footy is like, he is a test player. Why did he make those remarks? It was very negative about how his team didn’t do this and that. I can imagine when you’re not looking at the positive way things played out it will start to grind on you as a player. It was always about inadequacies rather than the ability shown dealing with situations. Multiple similar perspectives have been shared that it’s how it was always like during his AB team, when it says “start”, I think they could literally be talking about from day one (not when unhappiness started). So while you describe why, that particular factor is something I’d normally expect to build over time.
I thought England were very tough and well drilled, both threatening and close to have the right defensive setup, it is still possible that they/him/other expected more from the start and he was never able to get that result you have said he was looking for before he became comfortable enough to let his side play (and which they could have helped him break out of the shell a bit more. That Australia game seemed to be a bit of a nadir, they were moving the ball scoring 3 or 4 tries in the first half then some disconnected passes from Dmac breaks blow another 3 or 4 and before they new it Aussie were up there a$$ and things were falling about having lost confidence to play. Some deeper breaths (the execution could have been made much smipler) and a 50poing game instead and I wonder.
J
JW 42 days ago
I don’t what world you live but they are definitely huge!
They are also fast, and big for loosies too.
J
JW 42 days ago
Whys that?
J
JW 42 days ago
What do you think we are doing here LOL!
J
JW 42 days ago
No England had not. As I have explained to you Ireland looked more dangerous than England did in those situations. Otherwise we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
P
PMcD 43 days ago
Interesting - a few bits to unravel in there NB (on a wet slow news day 🤣).
I’ve just added the averages to the original text - IRE go from 23 points (2022), down to 18 (2023), back up to 23 (2024) and then 28.5 points (2025), which does suggest they eroded in defence against the top rated teams since 2023.
Interesting stat on 6 N’s D NB, 17 tries over 15 games is 10 points per game. I’ve just looked and it’s interesting to see the difference of 6N’s scoring average vs the Top 5 game.
2022 - P5, PF 169 (ave 34 points) PA 63 (ave 13)
IRE 29 - 7 WAL
FRA 30 - 24 IRE
IRE 57 - 6 ITA
ENG 15 - IRE 32
IRE 26 - 5 SCO
6N’s average - PF 34 ave vs PA 13 ave vs Top 5 PF 21 ave vs PA 23
2023 - P5, PF 151 ( ave 30 points) PA 62 (ave 12)
WAL 10 - IRE 34
IRE 32 - 10 FRA
ITA 20 - IRE 34
SCO 7 - IRE 22
IRE 29 - 15 ENG
6N’s average - PF 30 ave vs PA 12 vs Top 5 PF 25 ave vs PA 18
2024 - P5, PF 144 (ave 29 points) PA 60 (ave 12)
FRA 17 - 38 IRE
IRE 36 - 0 ITA
IRE 31 - 7 WAL
ENG 23 - IRE 22
IRE 17 - 13 SCO
6N’s average - PF 29 ave vs PF 12 vs Top 5 PF 22 ave vs PA 23
That’s quite interesting, so when you look at the 6N’s averages, vs the Top 5 averages, what it’s really telling you is that the averages vs ITA, WAL & SCO make the IRE numbers look good but when you swap those 3 for SA & NZ, IRE started to struggle.
IRE are actually a high scoring team in the 6 N’s, with a very good defence but become less effective vs SA & NZ.
You do start to see two slightly different results from the two different data groups.
This one has been quite fun to unpick and I’ve actually learned a bit from this.
N
NB 43 days ago
Ire’s success around 2022 and 2023 was based on their ability to keep the ball and not overstress the D! And it scored heavily from those multi-phase attacks…
N
NB 43 days ago
The pattern of points conceded against your four chosen opponents goes from 28 per game in 2022, to 18 per game in 2023, up to 23 in 2024, up again to 28 in 2025.
The Ire D was at it best in 2022-2024 when it gave up only 17 tries in three 6N seasons, and the possession attack was in full swing.
IRE were never what I would call a high scoring team, even at their best.
I have to disagree. The 6N figures show otherwise. It’s only in 2025 that France really overtook Ireland as the 6N top try-scorers with 30 to Ire’s 17.
Before that, Ire had scored 63 tries to France’s 51 in the three seasons 2022-2024. An average of 23 tries per 6N season is excellent by any standard. It’s over four and half tries per game.
In terms of the overall debate, the possession attack always took a lot of pressure off the D because Ire kept the ball for such long periods. But the possession attack is no longer so viable with the change in kick-chase rules - see next article!
D
Derek Murray 43 days ago
It was exhilarating stuff from France, beautiful to watch. Were I them, my only concern would be their inability to gain parity at the scrum despite Ireland being down 5 top props. England and Italy in particular, will have looked on with interest.
N
NB 43 days ago
Hope you didn’t lose too much gelt on the game DM! If Ire had scored when close to the line around the 71st minute they were still a chace, ven after such a poor first hal. So as you say I think France’s future opponents will be seeing plenty of encouraging signs after round one.
P
PMcD 43 days ago
I can see the miss-match, if you include 4 seasons, you can see the two good seasons where they were good (and beating these teams inc SA & IRE) and then in 2024 & 2025 you see them losing them.
They haven’t kept one of those games under 20 points against since 2023 on the D-side, which then puts even more pressure on attack to win games.
It feels like they concede 5 more points in defence and score 5 less in attack.
I haven’t looked at how the points were scored to tell if it was tries or kicks but hopefully this explains my thoughts.
N
NB 43 days ago
In the past four seasons they have scored almost the same number of tries as France, and conceded far fewer tries - see above.
Ther drop-off only really started last year where they scored 17 tries and gave up 14 at the 6N.
N
NB 43 days ago
Not so convinced about this P.
Looking at the 6N for the past four seasons, tries scored/conceded as follows:
IRE - 80/31 = +49
FRA - 81/46 = +35
ENG - 59/57 = +2
So of the big three, Ireland has had the best D outright, and the best balance between attack and defence 2022-2025.
P
PMcD 43 days ago
That’s what I was thinking about regarding development - either Jones or Woodman would be good coaches for him at this stage of their career.
N
NB 43 days ago
The only benefit for him joining the URC wd be to play against the Sharks, Stormers and Bulls, who all long scrum for pens the SA way.
Quins is a good option as long as Adam Jones is there, ready pipeline back to the national squad…
N
NB 43 days ago
That is what is supposed to happen! Doesn’t always work out like that😁
P
PMcD 43 days ago
I agree.
It’s been useful for him to be in TdT’s weekly scrum school for the last 2 years and he has really improved as a result but at this stage of his career he needs the right environment and to be playing regular games.
Then for the tricky part, whilst there will be pressure to play in Wales, I am not sure that is the right environment for props and he would be better staying in the PREM, as a starter or regular bench.
Then for the tricky part of where Bath would allow him to go - Quins or Gloucester would be the likely destinations, where he will have a scrum coach to help move him forward.
Tricky decision at this stage of his career but I am not sure Bath will want him to go, as Sela’s injury record is a bit of a concern.
c
cw 43 days ago
These are interesting stats. I am still puzzled based on what we have seen of Ireland over the last 4-5 years down here. They may well have scored less, but they could cut up opposition through the backs when needed. I just did not sense that against France.
c
cw 43 days ago
For sure.
N
NB 43 days ago
Maybe - but no point in Archie staying as thrid THP at Bath when big Will gets back!
N
NB 43 days ago
Agreed he’d get a lot more starts at Glaws or Bristol. Just down the road.
E
Eric Elwood 43 days ago
True. I think that Fitzgerald’s example of leadership on the pitch to change things could apply to Ireland. I often wonder if clubs/nations could be more proactive in developing skills for rugby players to effectively identify needed on the hoof changes and efffectively communicate this so the team effects those changes. Old style was completely organic, but I feel nowadays it could be developed a lot more. It is worth points and matches.
P
PMcD 43 days ago
There has been an interesting pattern since Will Stuart was injured, if you look at the team sheets Bath are pairing the hookers & THP’s. They are playing Tuipulotu & Sela together and pairing Frost & Griffin together.
I see Sela has been injured again with ENG, so was replaced by Kloska in this rounds squad update.
IF-W, Furbank, & Sela injured, replaced by Roebuck, Fin Smith, Lawrence & Kloska for R2.
P
PMcD 43 days ago
IRE were never what I would call a high scoring team, even at their best.
Under Schmidt they would score 20-25 points for and hold teams to mid to high teens in points against.
When you look at their dominant period, it was usually scoring less than 20 points against the top teams, whilst holding them to low-mid teens in defence.
If you look at their recent results against SA, NZ, FRA & ENG results, those teams are scoring +20 again, which IRE have not matched.
They are letting 1 try extra against them in defence and are failing to offset in attack and when you look at the 6 Nations stats last season, they are usually 4th or 5th place rank in most defensive stats and were actually 6th placed in penalty kick success (which is poor).
P
PMcD 43 days ago
I think we have just found out why JW thinks the AB’s are unfairly yellow carded all the time. 🤣🤣
N
NB 43 days ago
Look at the Boks’ box when they thrashed NZ in Wellington! Rassie didn’t exactly fold up his ipad and walk quietly away!
N
NB 43 days ago
Why shd all coaches have to look ‘stoic’ if it doesn’t reflect their personality?
NZR must have known the guy they were picking, you only had to look at his breakdancing vids!
N
NB 43 days ago
Thanks for that.
“It was difficult from the start,” one insider said. “You had Crusaders players saying, ‘We don’t recognise this guy. He’s totally different to the Scott Robertson that we worked with in the Crusaders’.
“They said that in the Crusaders he was upbeat, he was fun, he was energetic.”
That’s the key bit for me. He just never looked like he felt able relax fully into his own character, and that is fatal.
I’ve worked with four diff international teams and believe me, the pressures are very diff to the club/provincial game and I felt they crushed him. Hope he recovers to ‘normal’.
T
Tommy B 43 days ago
Griffin needs to leave Bath. Even with Du Toit gone next year, he’s not going to get many games, and none of the big ones, ahead of Stuart and Sela.
N
NB 43 days ago
Nope no danger of that! Pointing out the English B/R are not huge, they are fast.
N
NB 43 days ago
If it was any other side apart from the ABs, wd you really be making the same case?😁
N
NB 43 days ago
We hv already explained the law as it stands to you JW. Eng had made a break and were looking to score, Ire had not….
c
cw 43 days ago
True and just as importantly no one is passive or being carried. They approach their tasks looking and expecting to dominate. The top three at the moment in terms of performance - SA, England and France - share that quality. This can be contrasted with both Ireland and the ABs at the moment who seem hesitant and lacking that confidence we ordinarily expect from them.
J
JW 43 days ago
And yet Taylor was carded and Dupont wasn’t, you understand that is the point being made right?
J
JW 43 days ago
Cynical play is only a penalty offense.
J
JW 43 days ago
I wouldn’t really pay attention to it, well I’d never heard of the guy. Does repeat snippets of a bit of the gossip I’ve come across though. Shane Currie is the guys name
Yup, despite that I don’t half doubt they are wrong. And I doubt that is the outgoing board or CEOs preconception, that is the new ones!
Same, thought it was a weird point to raise in the article though (not considering it was blatantly wrong in what it was insinuating) as the rest seemed measured, thoughtful, balanced even? I think his mannerisms definitely played a part, but to think the top brass at NZR would respond like that to any such action (whether the author could have painted the picture correctly or not) I find fairly unbelievable.
To me the author could have wrote something like “before the England test Kirk expressed his displeasure at the lack of flair being shown by Razors side, and so when Razor got excited about a line break he stood and turned towards the dignitaries and mouthed “suck it” in a repsonse to mean like “how do you like them apples Kirk”, when the All Blacks looked like scoring try after try against England" and I would have thought it just as preposterous a thing to say/write.
Glad you also thought it strange to write about showing emotion like that, it’s hardly a new thing from Razor either.
J
JW 43 days ago
Did you mistake PMCD for me or something?
P
PMcD 44 days ago
Interesting 1st round of 6N’s.
FRA will be delighted, ITA are probably still celebrating and ENG were good and workmanlike but greater challenges lie ahead.
I think most people thought Andy Farrell looked glum in his post match interview, which was utterly eclipsed by Gregor Townsend. Interesting week ahead but both Farrell & Townsend will be feeling the pressure a little earlier than expected.
Who said the 6 Nations wasn’t exciting but with 1 of the big 3 games out of the way, it’s advantage FRA at this stage.
N
NB 44 days ago
I feel France and Eng came out of round one roughly on a level P.
Eng barely needed to engage third gear to put almost a half century of points on Wales, and it’s often a good idea to build towards your peak rather than start with your peak performance.
We will see if France have already shown their best form or not.
Scotland and Ireland the big losers from round one.
P
PMcD 44 days ago
In fairness CW, it’s taken two things to allow this, firstly the ENG front 5 scrum has really improved, so they can be competitive at the scrum without the need for the larger back row (allows the 5x7’s).
If you look at the Summer 24 and Autumn games Baxter & Heyes were destroyed by NZ replacement pack and then by Autumn 25 they are holding their own with your starting pack.
It’s also pretty rare to have such a depth of talent - they basically have 6 open sides of equal quality - T Curry, Underhill, Earl, Pollock, Pepper, B Curry - they are pretty interchangeable but also benefits from Underhill/Pepper & Curry/Curry playing alongside each other for both club & country. Either combination is very solid.
P
PMcD 44 days ago
ENG are working as a collective back row (and bench), they kick the ball 25-30m away from the opposition forwards knowing their tall wingers will try and reclaim the kick and if they don’t the 1st of the 3x7’s makes the tackle to create a ruck and the other 2x7’s win the breakdown battle before the opposition get there in numbers.
That’s why Borthwick has moved away from the big 6’s and doesn’t select them anymore.
P
PMcD 44 days ago
For once I agree with you JW, totally the wrong call by Taylor, hence why the ref called it a cynical play and yellow carded him. There was no reason why he did it and he should have known better, especially being that obvious on the replay. 🤣🤣🤣
J
Johnny Guitar 44 days ago
Ireland might have won “the battle of the benches” but the final score of the 2nd half is 14-14 not 7-14. I agree that Ireland were much better when they suddenly discover that they could use their hands instead of their feet. But the last 10 minutes, France lead several devastating raids ending with Depoortère disallowed try then Assitogbe try. Ireland rebellion did not last as long as you say due to France defence and skills.
N
NB 44 days ago
The Irishmen won the battle of the benches in the last 30 minutes by 14 points to seven
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Yep, it was a more interesting article than most as it pulled from a variety of sources/opinions/perspectives, so you think might be a ‘complete’ picture.
It’s what we have been saying from the start. Thanks to the media beat up (mostly I think) a common opinion at the beginning was that Razor lacked experience and didn’t seem to appreciate how tough int footy was (due to portrayals about how he’s going to change things up and throw away the play book qoutes etc), and so when he came to that first interview after beating England and made multiple remarks along the lines of ‘woah, that’s test footy is it, man it’s tough’, I got the feeling something was wrong. I don’t think the actual pressure can change someone like Razor that quick, for me there is something more at play, outside and unnecessary pressure.
Because he knows what test footy is like, he is a test player. Why did he make those remarks? It was very negative about how his team didn’t do this and that. I can imagine when you’re not looking at the positive way things played out it will start to grind on you as a player. It was always about inadequacies rather than the ability shown dealing with situations. Multiple similar perspectives have been shared that it’s how it was always like during his AB team, when it says “start”, I think they could literally be talking about from day one (not when unhappiness started). So while you describe why, that particular factor is something I’d normally expect to build over time.
I thought England were very tough and well drilled, both threatening and close to have the right defensive setup, it is still possible that they/him/other expected more from the start and he was never able to get that result you have said he was looking for before he became comfortable enough to let his side play (and which they could have helped him break out of the shell a bit more. That Australia game seemed to be a bit of a nadir, they were moving the ball scoring 3 or 4 tries in the first half then some disconnected passes from Dmac breaks blow another 3 or 4 and before they new it Aussie were up there a$$ and things were falling about having lost confidence to play. Some deeper breaths (the execution could have been made much smipler) and a 50poing game instead and I wonder.
I don’t what world you live but they are definitely huge!
They are also fast, and big for loosies too.
Whys that?
What do you think we are doing here LOL!
No England had not. As I have explained to you Ireland looked more dangerous than England did in those situations. Otherwise we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
Interesting - a few bits to unravel in there NB (on a wet slow news day 🤣).
I’ve just added the averages to the original text - IRE go from 23 points (2022), down to 18 (2023), back up to 23 (2024) and then 28.5 points (2025), which does suggest they eroded in defence against the top rated teams since 2023.
Interesting stat on 6 N’s D NB, 17 tries over 15 games is 10 points per game. I’ve just looked and it’s interesting to see the difference of 6N’s scoring average vs the Top 5 game.
2022 - P5, PF 169 (ave 34 points) PA 63 (ave 13)
IRE 29 - 7 WAL
FRA 30 - 24 IRE
IRE 57 - 6 ITA
ENG 15 - IRE 32
IRE 26 - 5 SCO
6N’s average - PF 34 ave vs PA 13 ave vs Top 5 PF 21 ave vs PA 23
2023 - P5, PF 151 ( ave 30 points) PA 62 (ave 12)
WAL 10 - IRE 34
IRE 32 - 10 FRA
ITA 20 - IRE 34
SCO 7 - IRE 22
IRE 29 - 15 ENG
6N’s average - PF 30 ave vs PA 12 vs Top 5 PF 25 ave vs PA 18
2024 - P5, PF 144 (ave 29 points) PA 60 (ave 12)
FRA 17 - 38 IRE
IRE 36 - 0 ITA
IRE 31 - 7 WAL
ENG 23 - IRE 22
IRE 17 - 13 SCO
6N’s average - PF 29 ave vs PF 12 vs Top 5 PF 22 ave vs PA 23
That’s quite interesting, so when you look at the 6N’s averages, vs the Top 5 averages, what it’s really telling you is that the averages vs ITA, WAL & SCO make the IRE numbers look good but when you swap those 3 for SA & NZ, IRE started to struggle.
IRE are actually a high scoring team in the 6 N’s, with a very good defence but become less effective vs SA & NZ.
You do start to see two slightly different results from the two different data groups.
This one has been quite fun to unpick and I’ve actually learned a bit from this.
Ire’s success around 2022 and 2023 was based on their ability to keep the ball and not overstress the D! And it scored heavily from those multi-phase attacks…
The pattern of points conceded against your four chosen opponents goes from 28 per game in 2022, to 18 per game in 2023, up to 23 in 2024, up again to 28 in 2025.
The Ire D was at it best in 2022-2024 when it gave up only 17 tries in three 6N seasons, and the possession attack was in full swing.
I have to disagree. The 6N figures show otherwise. It’s only in 2025 that France really overtook Ireland as the 6N top try-scorers with 30 to Ire’s 17.
Before that, Ire had scored 63 tries to France’s 51 in the three seasons 2022-2024. An average of 23 tries per 6N season is excellent by any standard. It’s over four and half tries per game.
In terms of the overall debate, the possession attack always took a lot of pressure off the D because Ire kept the ball for such long periods. But the possession attack is no longer so viable with the change in kick-chase rules - see next article!
It was exhilarating stuff from France, beautiful to watch. Were I them, my only concern would be their inability to gain parity at the scrum despite Ireland being down 5 top props. England and Italy in particular, will have looked on with interest.
Hope you didn’t lose too much gelt on the game DM! If Ire had scored when close to the line around the 71st minute they were still a chace, ven after such a poor first hal. So as you say I think France’s future opponents will be seeing plenty of encouraging signs after round one.
I can see the miss-match, if you include 4 seasons, you can see the two good seasons where they were good (and beating these teams inc SA & IRE) and then in 2024 & 2025 you see them losing them.
2022 P6; PF 128 (ave 21 points) PA 137 (ave 23)
FRA 30 - IRE 22
ENG 15- IRE 32
NZ 42- IRE 19
NZ 12 - IRE 23
NZ 22 - IRE 32
IRE 19 - SA 16
2023 - P4; (PF 98 (ave 25 points) PA 71 (ave 18 points)
IRE 32 - FRA 19
IRE 29 - ENG 16
SA 8 - IRE 13
IRE 24 - NZ 28
2024 - P5; (PF 112 (ave 22 points) PA 114 (ave 23 points)
FRA 17 - IRE 32
ENG 23 - IRE 22
SA 27 - IRE 20
SA 24 - IRE 25
IRE 13 - NZ 23
2025 - P4; (PF 75 (ave 19 points) PA 114 (29 points)
IRE 27 - ENG 22
IRE 27 - FRA 42
IRE 13 - NZ 26
IRE 13 - SA 24
They haven’t kept one of those games under 20 points against since 2023 on the D-side, which then puts even more pressure on attack to win games.
It feels like they concede 5 more points in defence and score 5 less in attack.
I haven’t looked at how the points were scored to tell if it was tries or kicks but hopefully this explains my thoughts.
In the past four seasons they have scored almost the same number of tries as France, and conceded far fewer tries - see above.
Ther drop-off only really started last year where they scored 17 tries and gave up 14 at the 6N.
Not so convinced about this P.
Looking at the 6N for the past four seasons, tries scored/conceded as follows:
IRE - 80/31 = +49
FRA - 81/46 = +35
ENG - 59/57 = +2
So of the big three, Ireland has had the best D outright, and the best balance between attack and defence 2022-2025.
That’s what I was thinking about regarding development - either Jones or Woodman would be good coaches for him at this stage of their career.
The only benefit for him joining the URC wd be to play against the Sharks, Stormers and Bulls, who all long scrum for pens the SA way.
Quins is a good option as long as Adam Jones is there, ready pipeline back to the national squad…
That is what is supposed to happen! Doesn’t always work out like that😁
I agree.
It’s been useful for him to be in TdT’s weekly scrum school for the last 2 years and he has really improved as a result but at this stage of his career he needs the right environment and to be playing regular games.
Then for the tricky part, whilst there will be pressure to play in Wales, I am not sure that is the right environment for props and he would be better staying in the PREM, as a starter or regular bench.
Then for the tricky part of where Bath would allow him to go - Quins or Gloucester would be the likely destinations, where he will have a scrum coach to help move him forward.
Tricky decision at this stage of his career but I am not sure Bath will want him to go, as Sela’s injury record is a bit of a concern.
These are interesting stats. I am still puzzled based on what we have seen of Ireland over the last 4-5 years down here. They may well have scored less, but they could cut up opposition through the backs when needed. I just did not sense that against France.
For sure.
Maybe - but no point in Archie staying as thrid THP at Bath when big Will gets back!
Agreed he’d get a lot more starts at Glaws or Bristol. Just down the road.
True. I think that Fitzgerald’s example of leadership on the pitch to change things could apply to Ireland. I often wonder if clubs/nations could be more proactive in developing skills for rugby players to effectively identify needed on the hoof changes and efffectively communicate this so the team effects those changes. Old style was completely organic, but I feel nowadays it could be developed a lot more. It is worth points and matches.
There has been an interesting pattern since Will Stuart was injured, if you look at the team sheets Bath are pairing the hookers & THP’s. They are playing Tuipulotu & Sela together and pairing Frost & Griffin together.
I see Sela has been injured again with ENG, so was replaced by Kloska in this rounds squad update.
IF-W, Furbank, & Sela injured, replaced by Roebuck, Fin Smith, Lawrence & Kloska for R2.
IRE were never what I would call a high scoring team, even at their best.
Under Schmidt they would score 20-25 points for and hold teams to mid to high teens in points against.
When you look at their dominant period, it was usually scoring less than 20 points against the top teams, whilst holding them to low-mid teens in defence.
If you look at their recent results against SA, NZ, FRA & ENG results, those teams are scoring +20 again, which IRE have not matched.
They are letting 1 try extra against them in defence and are failing to offset in attack and when you look at the 6 Nations stats last season, they are usually 4th or 5th place rank in most defensive stats and were actually 6th placed in penalty kick success (which is poor).
I think we have just found out why JW thinks the AB’s are unfairly yellow carded all the time. 🤣🤣
Look at the Boks’ box when they thrashed NZ in Wellington! Rassie didn’t exactly fold up his ipad and walk quietly away!
Why shd all coaches have to look ‘stoic’ if it doesn’t reflect their personality?
NZR must have known the guy they were picking, you only had to look at his breakdancing vids!
Thanks for that.
That’s the key bit for me. He just never looked like he felt able relax fully into his own character, and that is fatal.
I’ve worked with four diff international teams and believe me, the pressures are very diff to the club/provincial game and I felt they crushed him. Hope he recovers to ‘normal’.
Griffin needs to leave Bath. Even with Du Toit gone next year, he’s not going to get many games, and none of the big ones, ahead of Stuart and Sela.
Nope no danger of that! Pointing out the English B/R are not huge, they are fast.
If it was any other side apart from the ABs, wd you really be making the same case?😁
We hv already explained the law as it stands to you JW. Eng had made a break and were looking to score, Ire had not….
True and just as importantly no one is passive or being carried. They approach their tasks looking and expecting to dominate. The top three at the moment in terms of performance - SA, England and France - share that quality. This can be contrasted with both Ireland and the ABs at the moment who seem hesitant and lacking that confidence we ordinarily expect from them.
And yet Taylor was carded and Dupont wasn’t, you understand that is the point being made right?
Cynical play is only a penalty offense.
I wouldn’t really pay attention to it, well I’d never heard of the guy. Does repeat snippets of a bit of the gossip I’ve come across though. Shane Currie is the guys name
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/inside-the-exit-of-all-blacks-coach-scott-robertson-new-details-of-how-and-why-a-dream-role-unravelled-in-one-of-the-worlds-most-storied-sports-teams/premium/CA5P62LC3VGQJLLRGDJX6LVNF4/
Yup, despite that I don’t half doubt they are wrong. And I doubt that is the outgoing board or CEOs preconception, that is the new ones!
Same, thought it was a weird point to raise in the article though (not considering it was blatantly wrong in what it was insinuating) as the rest seemed measured, thoughtful, balanced even? I think his mannerisms definitely played a part, but to think the top brass at NZR would respond like that to any such action (whether the author could have painted the picture correctly or not) I find fairly unbelievable.
To me the author could have wrote something like “before the England test Kirk expressed his displeasure at the lack of flair being shown by Razors side, and so when Razor got excited about a line break he stood and turned towards the dignitaries and mouthed “suck it” in a repsonse to mean like “how do you like them apples Kirk”, when the All Blacks looked like scoring try after try against England" and I would have thought it just as preposterous a thing to say/write.
Glad you also thought it strange to write about showing emotion like that, it’s hardly a new thing from Razor either.
Did you mistake PMCD for me or something?
Interesting 1st round of 6N’s.
FRA will be delighted, ITA are probably still celebrating and ENG were good and workmanlike but greater challenges lie ahead.
I think most people thought Andy Farrell looked glum in his post match interview, which was utterly eclipsed by Gregor Townsend. Interesting week ahead but both Farrell & Townsend will be feeling the pressure a little earlier than expected.
Who said the 6 Nations wasn’t exciting but with 1 of the big 3 games out of the way, it’s advantage FRA at this stage.
I feel France and Eng came out of round one roughly on a level P.
Eng barely needed to engage third gear to put almost a half century of points on Wales, and it’s often a good idea to build towards your peak rather than start with your peak performance.
We will see if France have already shown their best form or not.
Scotland and Ireland the big losers from round one.
In fairness CW, it’s taken two things to allow this, firstly the ENG front 5 scrum has really improved, so they can be competitive at the scrum without the need for the larger back row (allows the 5x7’s).
If you look at the Summer 24 and Autumn games Baxter & Heyes were destroyed by NZ replacement pack and then by Autumn 25 they are holding their own with your starting pack.
It’s also pretty rare to have such a depth of talent - they basically have 6 open sides of equal quality - T Curry, Underhill, Earl, Pollock, Pepper, B Curry - they are pretty interchangeable but also benefits from Underhill/Pepper & Curry/Curry playing alongside each other for both club & country. Either combination is very solid.
ENG are working as a collective back row (and bench), they kick the ball 25-30m away from the opposition forwards knowing their tall wingers will try and reclaim the kick and if they don’t the 1st of the 3x7’s makes the tackle to create a ruck and the other 2x7’s win the breakdown battle before the opposition get there in numbers.
That’s why Borthwick has moved away from the big 6’s and doesn’t select them anymore.
For once I agree with you JW, totally the wrong call by Taylor, hence why the ref called it a cynical play and yellow carded him. There was no reason why he did it and he should have known better, especially being that obvious on the replay. 🤣🤣🤣
Ireland might have won “the battle of the benches” but the final score of the 2nd half is 14-14 not 7-14. I agree that Ireland were much better when they suddenly discover that they could use their hands instead of their feet. But the last 10 minutes, France lead several devastating raids ending with Depoortère disallowed try then Assitogbe try. Ireland rebellion did not last as long as you say due to France defence and skills.