LONG READ Frustrating end but UK tour sparks renewed optimism in Australia

As was the case two years ago, the Wallabies went down to Ireland by three points in Dublin. And as was the case two years ago, the general feeling in Australia about the result is surprisingly upbeat.

There’s still annoyance and frustration, don’t worry. Particularly around the very clear Hugo Keenan kick-chase knock-on in the lead-up to Caelan Doris’s try. There’s not even any doubt about the knock-on; it was so clear, not even a TV director could hide it.

And there is annoyance and frustration that not unlike the 2022 match, the Wallabies had got themselves into a position where a win was very possible. The difference between the top five teams and next five teams is that they know how to convert winning positions into actual wins, and though they may be getting closer, Australia are not there yet.

Though there is clearly a lot of Ireland about the Wallabies game currently – no surprise given Andy Farrell really hasn’t changed the Irish game-plan since succeeding Joe Schmidt – the stats sheets highlight a couple of shortfalls.

Namely, that Australia attacked for the same amount of time, they made more than two hundred fewer metres, and 40 per cent fewer passes. They got away less than half as many offloads as did Ireland as well. Much of that reflects the fact the Wallabies had only 42% of possession, and as a result also conceded fewer turnovers and handling errors.

But interestingly, despite the huge disparity in possession share, Australia only attempted 25 more tackles than the Irish. It felt like the Wallabies spent large chunks of the match defending, yet the tackle stats show that wasn’t the case.

The Wallabies just couldn’t get out of their own half, especially in the second half, and their box-kicks, line kicking and clearances were all lacking significantly in length.

“In the second half probably my one disappointment around the game is that I felt we got quite conservative,” Schmidt pondered post-match.

“When you do that against Ireland and you’re hanging on and you’ve got a four-point lead, you’re hoping that’s enough, but I just think we tried to do that from too far out.

“We started kicking it back or kicking it out and giving them a set-piece to launch from, and… we were having to work very, very hard.”

This plays out in the territory stats, where the Wallabies made 33 kicks to Ireland’s 26, and made nearly 170m more from them.

But with both teams averaging about 25 metres per kick, and Ireland claiming a whopping 69% of territory, this also mirrors what was clear throughout the game: the Wallabies just couldn’t get out of their own half, especially in the second half, and their box-kicks, line kicking and clearances were all lacking significantly in length.

But they still only went down by three. To Ireland, the number two team in the world, in Dublin. Again.

I don’t mind admitting that I remain sceptical of AI content as a rule, so it was pleasantly surprising to read this rather well summarised take on the Wallabies, both of the Ireland result, and of their future prospects.

Under the very reasonable headline, ‘Wallabies Show Promise Under Schmidt Despite Ireland Setback’, X’s in-house AI engine had this to say, based on a summary of posts in the hours after the match.

“The Australian Wallabies, under the guidance of new coach Joe Schmidt, have displayed significant improvement in their rugby prowess this year,” the non-humans began.

“Although they faced a narrow defeat against Ireland in Dublin, ending with a score of 22-19, the match highlighted the team’s resilience and tactical advancements. Key players like [Fraser] McReight and [Jeremy] Williams have been instrumental, particularly in bolstering the team’s defence.

It’s really only the mean-spirited, narrow-minded and the completely delusional now that won’t acknowledge Schmidt’s impact on the Wallabies since their first outing together

“This game, despite the loss, has sparked optimism for the Wallabies’ future, especially with the British and Irish Lions series on the horizon. Discussions have centred around the team’s development, strategic choices such as appointing Wilson as captain, and the overall upward trajectory under Schmidt’s leadership.

“Fans and analysts alike are now setting high expectations for the Wallabies’ upcoming performances, buoyed by Schmidt’s focus on building squad depth for the Lions tour.”

Even if it has been authored by the machines, and even if by quoting them I am effectively legitimising another step towards my own redundancy, it’s a summary that’s difficult to argue with.

The Wallabies have shown promise under Schmidt, great promise in fact. They have displayed significant improvement, and players like McReight and Williams (and more than a few others) have been huge parts of that improvement in 2024.

Their UK tour certainly has sparked optimism, and the expectations have grown over the last month.

It’s really only the mean-spirited, narrow-minded and the completely delusional now that won’t acknowledge Schmidt’s impact on the Wallabies since their first outing together in July, and who refuse to see the clear improvements in Australia now versus the Australia that limped out of the Rugby World Cup last year.

“From last year where Portugal and Georgia were the only scalps, and a number of losses in and around that, and the disappointment of missing out on the play-off stages of the World Cup, I’m heartened by where we’ve got to and determined by what’s in front of us,” Schmidt reflected on Saturday evening.

What’s in front of the Wallabies now is the British and Irish Lions, but the reality is that there is only 80 minutes of Test rugby between now and the first Test in Brisbane on 19 July.

The best Christmas present Rugby Australia could give Wallabies fans would be Schmidt’s signature on a contract extension through to the 2027 Rugby World Cup on home soil.

Any tinkering of patterns and combinations is going to have to happen in Super Rugby Pacific, and with the full co-operation for the four state coaches in Australia. Fortunately, there is a renewed desire among the states to help the Wallabies in a Lions year, and Schmidt freely admits to healthy working relationships already.

There are potential full Wallabies front rows to be built at the Brumbies, Waratahs and Reds. The Queensland back row firing is going to be as important to Schmidt as is the back three and midfield combinations firing for New South Wales.

The Brumbies backline spine of Noah Lolesio, Len Ikitau and Tom Wright is already hugely influential, and that’s without contemplating whether Ikitau’s shift to inside centre should become permanent. Clearly, those healthy working state relationships are going to be crucial.

But perhaps not nearly as crucial as Schmidt remaining with Australian rugby beyond the Lions tour. The best Christmas present Rugby Australia could give Wallabies fans would be Schmidt’s signature on a contract extension through to the 2027 Rugby World Cup on home soil.

Though maybe the career coach within Schmidt is starting to picture what could be achieved in the next few years, too.

“I was proud of the team. I thought they demonstrated a level of grit that you need if you’re going to be competitive with the Lions, and competitive with Ireland, the number two team in the world,” he said.

“I think we made them work pretty hard tonight to get the win.

“We’d love to have got into the mix and got the win ourselves, but at the same time I think from where we started at the end of last November when the boys came back after their break post-World Cup to where we are now, and there’s a bit more confidence in what they’re delivering, they’re a little bit more connected, and there’s still a bit of growth to go I’m hoping.”

If Schmidt’s Ireland is the perfect example of what can be achieved, both domestically and at Test level, then it would be entirely appropriate that he stayed on to see what Schmidt’s Australia can become.

Australian rugby hopes along with you, Joe. And that you’ll stay to see that growth develop into the Wallabies team you think is there.

And mainly because the job is still a long way from being finished. You could even argue that the Lions tour is more of a pre-season, with the bigger task being the next RWC two years further ahead.

But whatever the end date is, it feels important from an Australian rugby perspective that Schmidt remains in place to see it bear fruit.

If Schmidt’s Ireland is the perfect example of what can be achieved, both domestically and at Test level, then it would be entirely appropriate that he stayed on to see what Schmidt’s Australia can become.