LONG READ 'Expectations are so high at Leinster that merely league-winning seasons are not considered good enough'

The milk and honey transfer days of Jordie Barrett, Damien de Allende, Brad Thorn, Ruan Pienaar, Christian Cullen, Isa Nacewa, Mils Muliaina and Duane Vermeulen are behind us. Ireland’s four professional teams are no longer focusing on marquee signings from abroad. Instead, they are either tempting Irish players to jump provinces, repatriating old boys, or relying on scouts to find relatively cheap gems.

Earlier this month, the Irish Rugby Football Union announced it was seeking expressions of interest for a partner to design, build, finance and operate ‘Lansdowne Quarter’ – a large hotel and apartment complex, located right across the road from Aviva Stadium.

While the IRFU plays Monopoly, the four provinces have been told to pull up their cotton socks, get on top of their finances and, while they are at it, front up a chunk of their centrally-contracted players’ salaries. The provinces had the luxury for many years of the union covering annual salaries of their centrally contracted players. In 2024, they were told to stump 30% of those wages. From the start of this season, that rose to 40%. For Leinster, who have a dozen centrally contracted players (by far the most of any province), it is the equivalent of fully funding salaries for five top-line talents.

Every province is feeling the pinch. It is one of the key reasons that foreign imports are (no offence) on the Eli Snyman and Kieran Brookes troposphere, as opposed to the Rocky Elsom, Jean de Villiers or Steven Kitshoff stratosphere.

The simplest way to do Irish provincial previews, each season, is to start at Connacht and run alphabetically until one hits Ulster. On this instance, borne out of injury clouds descending upon one, poor province, I am starting with the side that worries me most. This preview folds in United Rugby Championship, Challenge Cup (Ulster) and Champions Cup competitions. The weight of expectations against each province will certainly be a factor in deciding this reverse top four.

Let us start, then, with a fanbase hoping for the best but fearing the worst.

Munster

Last season began like a dream for Munster – winning all five of their opening URC games, including victory over Leinster at Croke Park. It ended in a nightmare trawl. They lost seven of their next 12 league games and needed to beat Lions on the final day of the regular season to make the play-offs, and secure Champions Cup rugby. They travelled to Pretoria for the URC quarter finals and were utterly blitzed by the Bulls.

In the midst of a troubled season, where voluntary redundancies were sought and they lost four of five European games, Munster hired a new attack coach. Stung by a backlash from the public, and press, they scrubbed that appointment and sparked ‘an independent governance review’. Clayton McMillan tried to bring Roger Randle in to revamp Munster’s attack, but historic allegations against the Kiwi resurfaced and all parties agreed to step back. Randle is joining Hurricanes as assistant coach, while Munster’s attacking shape, and plays, will be devised (and juggled) by two men – Mossy Lawler and Jared Payne.

The departure of Jean Kleyn, to Gloucester, and retirements of Niall Scannell and John Ryan means Munster head into the new season without three seasoned veterans that all played roles in a league-winning campaign, three years ago. Thaakir Abrahams impressed during his two seasons in Limerick, but is now a Bulls player.

The greatest reason for Munster concern revolves around who will wear the 10 jersey. Jack Crowley – listed as having a ‘lower limb vascular injury’ – is out until the start of 2027, as is young fly-half Tom Wood, son of Munster legend Keith Wood. Aussie utility-back Will Harrison was signed to cover multiple positions, but is another in the treatment room after an old knee injury flared up. Such is the strain on fly-half resources, the province has re-signed a player they only cut loose in June. Tony Butler may have feared his days as a rugby pro were over. He now has a short-term contract to prove his old/new club wrong.

Three experienced props – Brookes, Jack Augnier and Marnus van der Merwe – have been brought in, but this is a season Munster needs younger squad members to elevate from potential to consistency and genuine, game-changing impact. I am looking squarely here at Josh Wycherley, Evan O’Connell, Tom Ahern, Ruadhan Quinn, Edwin Edogbo and Brian Gleeson. All six have been in and around the senior squad for long enough to spot the gaps that need filling.

There is no one left to hold hands anymore. If they can take their performance levels up a notch, and the likes of Seán Edogbo, Ronan Foxe and Ben O’Connor can push on, there is hope. Charlie O’Shea has yet to make his competitive debut, but much rests on the shoulders of the 20-year-old fly-half. Munster need new heroes. If few emerge, last season could look like a smooth ride in comparison to this.

Ulster

Second on the list of provinces I would most worry about, heading into the new season. Ulster were on course for a great 2025/26 until the final month of the season smacked them upside the head. They lost three of their final four URC matches, and drew the other, to miss out on the playoffs. That left winning the Challenge Cup as their only route back to Champions Cup rugby, until Montpellier monstered them, 49-26, in the final.

There are certainly reasons to be optimistic, up Ulster way. Richie Murphy and Mark Sexton have made them an attractive side to watch, when they get it clicking. Their oft-lamented academy is starting to spit out lads ready to stand and trade. Murphy and his coaching staff have moved on a lot of bodies over the summer and blipped around Europe to, in theory, revamp a side with heaps of potential. The captures of Matthew Devine (from Connacht) and Jamie Benson (Harlequins) may soon be looked upon as astute business. Both have poise about them. Getting James McNabney back and ready for the start of the new season is a bonus. Joe Schmidt will be in the building, too, for stretches of the season, in his specifically created ‘coach development advisor’ gig.

If I was fretting over anything, it would be more and more players being sucked in for Ireland duty, and the physical grind that entails. Rob Baloucoune and Stuart McCloskey both had great seasons for Ulster and Ireland, then paid the price with injuries in the latter half of the season. Veterans Iain Henderson and Rob Herring will, respectively, turn 35 and 37 during the course of the season.

I mentioned in last season’s preview how a long Challenge Cup run would be tempting. So it proved. For this campaign, I would urge them to go all-out for the URC as they should be targeting a top four finish, in the regular season.

Leinster

Number three on my list, for three reasons:

1. Expectations are so high that mere league-winning seasons are not considered good enough
2. The squad has lost a plethora of talented professionals, and the brass have been frugal with incomings
3. As if losing five Champions Cup finals since 2019 was bad enough, this is the squad’s last chance to send Leo Cullen off with that long-coveted fifth star

Leinster have lost (drum-roll, please) James Lowe, Rieko Ioane, Rabah Slimani, Luke McGrath, Ciarán Frawley, Jerry Cahir and Will Connors in the off-season. Their answer has been to promote three academy players – including the handy Josh Kenny – to senior contracts and send out homing pigeons to fetch Joey Carbery and Peter Dooley. Good golly. Still, you will not find many souls sympathetic to the Leinster cause. They have a stacked squad.

One pressure-point area will surely be loosehead depth. Paddy McCarthy and Jack Boyle may not return until the tail-end of the year, Cahir has moved to Connacht and Ed Byrne has retired. My side-project campaign of moving Andrew Porter back to tighthead is on the back-burner.

Any squad containing the likes of Sheehan, Doris, van der Flier, McCarthy, Baird, Conan, Gibson-Park, Ringrose, Snyman and Keenan will squash most competitors. They are my hefty favourites to make it three league titles on the spin. As for Europe, though? Big rivals have brought in the likes of Siya Kolisi, Tommaso Menoncello, George Martin, Alfie Barbeary, Cheslin Kolbe, Tom Willis and Wilco Louw. Leinster are in ‘prove me wrong’ territory, and I reckon they fall short again.

We then have Cullen talking about Carbery being ‘strong-armed’ into leaving Leinster, back in 2018, and Jacques Nienaber pointing out he can’t say he enjoys trips back to South Africa as the naysayers will pounce. If Leinster can block out the noise, they are capable of getting over that big, daunting finish line. If not, and they keep adding to that noise, things could quickly turn sour.

Connacht

I believe Leinster will finish much higher in the URC standings and are trophy threats in two competitions, but I still have greater worries for them than Connacht. Bounding into the new season, optimism is rampant around Stuart Lancaster’s side.

There have been three smart acquisitions from the Leinster ranks, with Ciarán Frawley the pick of that bunch. Their academy graduates have already made senior level waves, with Billy Bohan returning from his summer break as an Ireland international – an accolade for the other pups to chase.

Denis Buckley and Jack Carty have moved on, meaning only four members – Dave Heffernan, Finlay Bealham, Bundee Aki and Caolin Blade – from 2016’s league-winning squad remain. Connacht are cashing in on those good vibes, a decade on, as they celebrate with a special anniversary bash at Dexcom Stadium. For the newer faces, out west, it is a timely reminder of what can happen when a squad clicks and gets on a roll with bold, attacking rugby.

Mack Hansen is back fit, with what he is calling ‘a bionic foot’. Sean Jansen will tear into the new season after starring for Ireland in the Nations Championship, and Sam Illo is another that will be pushing for greater international involvement. Pushed by Lancaster, Connacht have some good, young talents, such as Harry West, Hugh Gavin, Matt Victory and Finn Treacy. They look good to push for a top six finish in the regular season.

My big Connacht worry is reserved for the Champions Cup, where they must face Saracens, Toulouse, Exeter and La Rochelle. If they register even one win from that batch, they will have done well.

Predictions:

• Leinster – champions
• Ulster – 4th
• Connacht – 6th
• Munster – 9th