LONG READ Are Leinster set for the yellow brick road to Cardiff and Champions Cup glory?

There are two ways of looking at the Investec Champions’ Cup: you see either the doughnut or you see the hole. Opinion, as is opinion’s wont, is divided. But for the increasingly suspicious hordes who’d been wondering – understandably it must be said – whether this season’s competition has any jam in it at all, the final round of pool games, finally, delivered a melt-in-the-mouth taste explosion; succulent fluff glazed in chocolate sauce and topped off with caramelised hazelnuts. I’ll be honest; it may take a week or two for the sugar levels to re-stabilise.

Northampton Saints against Munster was a gift of rubies; ASM Clermont Auvergne and Bristol Bears served up a finale where you needed to leave yourself a ‘Post-It’ note on the coffee table to remember to breathe; Leinster against Bath had almost Shakespearian overtones and Benetton Rugby’s blood-and-guts beating of the mighty Stade Rochelais was a Virgilian epic, the first time an Italian side has made into the knockout stages of Europe’s premier pot. Indeed, points difference alone denied them a home tie in the ottavi di Champions’ Cup.

And then there was Sunday. Castres Olympique, once a byword for European apathy, stiffed Saracens on their own patch – with their second string – to make the sharp end of the competition for the first time in 23 years while Sale Sharks, needing nothing less than a bonus point beating of the hitherto unbeaten RC Toulon, gloriously delivered the very same, their elation doubtless tempered somewhat by the knowledge that they’re now heading to Stade Toulousain. Effectively, they won the lottery and got sixpence but it was a stunning, sod-you, Sanderson of a performance.

Certainly, it was some weekend; the glaring lesson being that when this competition matches teams of equal merit and introduces the hot breath of jeopardy, it can justifiably lay claim to being one of the oval earth’s most eye-catching tournaments. But, too often in its current format, it does no such thing.

Take the last sixteen, for example, where we’re odds on to be straight back to the hole in a stale doughnut. Why? Because, between them, the eight teams who’ll take to the road at the beginning of April – Ulster, Harlequins, Clermont Auvergne, Saracens, Sale Sharks, Benetton Rugby, Leicester Tigers and Munster – chalked up just one away win in the pool stages; namely, Saracens at the hapless Stade Francais. Never say never but form guides are compiled for a reason.

If form and home advantage holds, the quarter finals – most likely – will be a serving of UBB/Stade Rochelais – a drool of an Atlantic derby – Leinster/Glasgow Warriors – intriguing – Northampton Saints/Castres Olympique – hello, again – and RCToulon/Stade Toulousain – rouge et noir contre rouge et noir.

Add to which the likes of Union Bordeaux-Bègles, Leinster, Northampton Saints, RCToulon, Stade Toulousain, Castres Olympique, Glasgow Warriors and Stade Rochelais – who between them have won this trophy 16 times, including 12 of the last 16 editions – aren’t famous for crapping on their own doormats when visitors come calling. Mind you, if you’re heading to the RoG reunion in La Rochelle, book early. That’ll be the signature tie.

Mapped out courtesy of pool stage performance, we can peer even further into the future. If form and home advantage holds, the quarter finals – most likely – will be a serving of UBB/Stade Rochelais – a drool of an Atlantic derby – Leinster/Glasgow Warriors – intriguing – Northampton Saints/Castres Olympique – hello, again – and RCToulon/Stade Toulousain – rouge et noir contre rouge et noir – a head-scratcher for any number of reasons; not least will Les Toulonnais stick with the bear pit of Stade Mayol or, at the behest of their accountants and the broadcasters, twist the game down the coast to Nice or Marseille and, thereby, ‘give up’ home advantage? On verra. 

But back in the here and now, what learnings do we glean from the pool stages where, somewhat ludicrously after 48 matches, all we’ve done is winnow 24 contenders down to 16? What’s more, while those matches have averaged nigh on one try-bonus point apiece, we’ve had only 10 losing-bonus points and an average points differential of +21 per match. I’m not entirely sure this qualifies as cordon bleu fare.

League by league, six have made it through from the Top 14 (a whopping five with home ties in the round of sixteen); five from the URC (two with home games) and five from the Guinness Premiership (just the one home game). Paris apart, it doesn’t take a genius to confirm where the power lies.

Compare that with the South African teams, who all crashed out; none won on the road; none even picked up a losing bonus point. The Bulls went down by 49 in Castres, the Stormers were 50+ points shy at Harlequins and the Sharks shipped 50+ at Leicester and 60+ in Bordeaux. Each won just one home game and none accumulated more than five match points out of a possible 20. Given the world-class quality of the South African players involved, that’s an affront to the competition. Guys, with the best will in the world, shape up or ship out.

The shining English light appears to be Northampton Saints who, despite being the third worst team in Guinness Premiership, topped their log and will be at home in the next two rounds.

The English, too, will be dressing livid wounds. Roosters in the Guinness Premiership, Bath and Bristol Bears were both feather dusters in the Champions’ Cup; the one consolation for Bath is that the Challenge Cup holds possibilities. Exeter Chiefs’ humbling at the Stormers in the opening round (39-21) turned out to be their best result of a dire campaign; this from last year’s quarter finalists. Harlequins and Leicester Tigers both went missing in France – the Tigers’ drubbing at the hands of Stade Toulousain was hide-your-bootlaces stuff – and Saracens pratfall last weekend turned a likely home quarter final against Benetton Rugby into a trip to RCToulon. It’s been a savage reality check.

The shining English light appears to be Northampton Saints who, despite being the third worst team in Guinness Premiership, topped their log and will be at home in the next two rounds. And yet, their one pool loss came at the lamest of the French contenders  – Stade Francais – where the Saints were 20 points clear in even time. Had they nailed down the lid, they’d have pipped Leinster to the Golden Ticket of second seed and guaranteed a home passage to the final. As it stands, their route to Cardiff now passes through Dublin. Even the good news comes tinged with regrets.

So what of the main contenders? Union Bordeaux-Bègles have approached the pool stages like a sniper shooting dairy cows with a high-velocity rifle and a telescopic-sight; Damian Penaud alone scored as many tries as the Sharks managed in four outings. Indeed, in their last ten Champions’ Cup matches – home and away – UBB have notched up an average – an average – of 46 points; 66, 69, 40, 42, 41, 45, 40, 55, 36, 41. And yet, two of those games were actually defeats, so if – if – you’ve the ammunition and the firepower to slug it out, there are opportunities.

Leinster look ominous; a touch of the Tarantino about them. After three successive final reversals, their fur’s up and, the first seven minutes against Bath apart, their Neinaber-knitted defence looks a cut above anyone else’s. Certainly, their rearguard action at Stade Rochelais was four tens on top of a full house; you may have the ball, sunshine, but we’re calling the shots. It was the stuff of which tournament winners are made.

Stade Toulousain will be steaming. Unbowed, kicking all arses, the top points scorers, joint-top try scorers and with the second best record through the pools, they’re merely the fifth seed in the knockout stages.

And, very quietly, they’ll be rubbing their hands. Not only do they have a home passage to the final but they avoid all the French heavyweights, who’re in a Mexican firing squad on the other side of the draw. Put it this way if, back in November, you’d offered Leinster the prospect of Harlequins and – you’d suspect – Glasgow Warriors and Northampton Saints as their knockout opponents, all in Dublin, you doubt they’d have said no.

By contrast, Stade Toulousain will be steaming. Unbowed, kicking all arses, the top points scorers, joint-top try scorers and with the second best record through the pools, they’re merely the fifth seed in the knockout stages, leaving them packing their bags for the quarter and semi finals. From the tournament’s point of view, it’s all rather serendipitous, yet they remain the bookies’ fancy at 13/8. Should they trip up, Antoine Dupont will be muttering unprintable words about the format of the competition.

And he’d be right because the format remains odorous, like the smell of a bad marriage. Ulster racked up one win in four, got tanned by an average of 30 in their other three matches, yet still qualified ahead of Racing ’92, Bath, Bristol, the Bulls and the Stormers, all of whom – significantly or marginally – had better records. Go figure.

But for now? The big winner, thus far, has been Benetton Rugby and hats off to them. Longer term? Well, Leinster are on the yellow brick road to the final with Slimani, Snyman and Barrett riding shotgun but, come Cardiff, Stade Toulousain and, perhaps to a lesser extent, Union Bordeaux-Bègles would sorely test their tweeters. If you had to place a bet you probably wouldn’t but let’s go blue. Why? Because I’ve seen Django Unchained and when Tarantino’s writing the script, there’s only ever one ending.