LONG READ 'There may be a surprise or two, but the meat of the 2026 Six Nations will rest between France, Ireland and England’

If international rugby was a global restaurant chain, the Six Nations tournament would build the gastropubs. You would get high-quality fare worth the eating, but without a formal fine-dining experience. The pub atmosphere would guarantee sociable spirit without the stuffed shirts.  There would be happy reunions with those of like mind, and some sharp-edged banter with visitors from another ‘tribe’. All within an overarching spirit of celebration.

That is the charm of the premier international competition in the northern hemisphere, in a nutshell. The doors are flung open to all-comers, be they from beyond Hadrian’s Wall, across the Irish Sea or the English Channel, or from far-flung Rome or Treviso and Milan. Wearing tartan bonnets, giant stovepipe hats or even chickens on their heads.

The food is good, and there are enough creative twists on the traditional pub grub favourites to make the ticket worth the investment. You can stay overnight or for the whole weekend, sup rugby and soak up the atmosphere, make it ‘a Six Nations for all the family’.

Since the last World Cup in 2023, the tectonic tournament tiers have been slowly drifting apart, with a new chasm appearing between the ‘Haves’ of France, Ireland and England, and the ‘Have Nots’ of Scotland, Wales and Italy. Scotland have threatened to break up the status quo, but ultimately flattered to deceive; Wales have collapsed alarmingly since the heady days of Gatland’s Grand Slams; while Italy have improved, they have yet to penetrate the top half of the table.

There is little reason to believe that the 2026 Six Nations will offer anything other than a Sunday lunchtime carve-up between the usual suspects. There may be a surprise or two, the odd frivolous jus or galette to titillate the palette, but the meat of the competition will rest between France, Ireland and England.

In 2024 it was Ireland, with clear air between them and France in second place and England in third. One year later, both Fabien Galthié’s red cockerels and Steve Borthwick’s red roses had moved up a spot with Andy Farrell’s green shamrocks dropping behind them.

Of the top trio it is Borthwick’s England who have made the biggest move over the last 12 months, and built the most momentum of any northern hemisphere nation in the November series of matches:

The win-loss pattern against opponents from either the Six Nations or Rugby Championship in 2025 was as follows:

All three nations won four out of five games in the 2025 Six Nations. Subsequently France lost momentum due to the political shenanigans over selection which accompanied their July tour of New Zealand, and Les Bleus struggled to regain it towards the end of the year; Ireland lost the two matches they would have been hoping to win, versus New Zealand and South Africa; and England cruised through the second half of their year with five consecutive victories, including three against Argentina and their first win over the All Blacks in the last five attempts.

The raw stats from the last Six Nations reveal some very interesting contrasts between the different paths of evolution among ‘the big three’:

Ireland scored a far greater percentage of their tries from set-piece starters [lineout or scrum] compared to either England or France, and they tended to score them early in the phase count. Of the trio, the men in green are by far the most dependent upon structure to produce positive results, and the figures from the second half and fourth quarters of matches in particular support that theory. As game patterns began to loosen up in the second period it was England and France who thrived, while Ireland gained no noticeable advantage as the match began to break up.

In this area the scrum trauma inflicted by the Springboks circles around Andy Farrell’s charges like a vulture. Their two loose-heads [Andrew Porter and Paddy McCarthy] gave up eight penalties, two yellow cards and one penalty try between them.

In the 2025 Six Nations, England finished with a +6 scrum-penalty differential, ranking them above France [+3] and Ireland [+0]. Ireland have always regarded the set-piece as a platform from which to launch their sophisticated attacking shapes, but unless they can find a front row upon whom the referees will look more favourably, at least half of that attacking foundation will be absent. Meanwhile England have gone from strength to strength with two complete front rows providing domination more than parity, while France can expect the return of Uini Atonio and Tevita Tatafu to fortify their resolve at tight-head prop.

The next set of stats indicates how the three nations approach the relationship between ruck-building and offloading in contact:

England built the fewest rucks per game in the 2025 Six Nations, while Ireland set the most, but England enjoyed the best ratio of yards-after-contact [YAC] per carry. The men in green were more content to play within their structures and play through phases to find a weakness, while France looked for the majority of game-breaking offloads – a massive tournament-leading total of 72 compared to England and Ireland at 40 offloads apiece.

The upshot is a quite startling stat linked to the number of passes necessary to produce one clean break:

By that marker, both France and England sit well ahead of Ireland in terms of attacking efficiency. The kicking games of all three countries also illustrate a clear difference in philosophy:

Where England kick short to regather the ball via their superb group of emerging ‘social climbers’ in the air, France kick long to engage in territorial duels and create chances for their outstanding return team, even if the start point is inside their own half of the field.

The one area where Ireland enjoyed a significant advantage over the other two contenders was in discipline and management of the referee:

The three keystone games are France versus Ireland in Paris in round one [5 February], England against Ireland in round three [21 February] and the final match of the last round, le crunch between France and England in the City of Light on 14 March.

All three of the favourites for the tournament have a point to prove in the 2026 Six Nations. Andy Farrell’s Ireland have to show the rate of rebuild with new blood is progressing more quickly than the speed at which their senior group of players are deteriorating. If they can regain the composure they lost so comprehensively against the Springboks, stay within their structures and keep their discipline, they could cause an upset in at least one of the matches – at the Stade de France or the old cabbage patch. But it is highly unlikely they are capable of winning both games.

France has to find a way to resolve the internal political friction between the FFR and the LNR to the satisfaction of Les Bleus head coach Fabien Galthié. The irresistible momentum of the 2025 victory over Ireland has largely dissipated in the damp squib of the July tour to New Zealand and a crushing loss to an under-manned Springboks team in November.

England have won their last 11 games in a row. They finished fourth in the 2023 Six Nations with two wins, improved to third in 2024 with three, and upped the ante to second place with four victories in 2025. Now they have to prove they can go one step further, bring home the bacon and win the silverware itself. Gastropub or not, it is high time for the cordon bleu course to be served.