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International

The 'toughest' RWC 2027 pool if draw was made today

Jon Newcombe

156 days ago

Dublin , Ireland - 22 November 2025; Malcolm Marx of South Africa is being tackled during the Quilter Nations Series 2025 match between Ireland and South Africa at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin. (Photo By John Dickson/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

The way the World Rugby Men’s Rankings have worked out ensures there are plenty of intriguing pool permutations ahead of the RWC 2027 draw in Sydney on Wednesday, 3 December.

Australia, as hosts, haven’t been given any preferential treatment for the expanded 24-team tournament, they’re in Band 2, as the seventh-ranked team, but they will be drawn into Pool A. That is the only definite outcome in what is otherwise a completely random draw, which will see the teams placed in six pools of four. But with one team from each of the four bands drawn in the same pool and those positions now ‘locked in’ (Wales’ game against South Africa next Saturday will not lead to a change of positions), it is possible to hazard a guess as to what might happen in nine days’ time.

Teams are placed in the four bands depending on their rankings at the end of this month, and South Africa are confirmed as the highest-ranked team in Band 1. And if they were joined by the top-ranked teams in the three remaining bands when the draw is conducted, you could end up with a scenario of four-time Rugby World Cup winners South Africa (ranked 1 and top of Band 1) facing hosts and two-time winners Australia (ranked 7 and top of Band 2), Georgia (ranked 13 and top of Band 3) and Samoa (ranked 19 and top of Band 4). Talk about physicality!

VIDEO

Band 1: South Africa, New Zealand, England, Ireland, France, Argentina
Band 2: Australia, Fiji, Scotland, Italy, Wales, Japan
Band 3: Georgia, Uruguay, Spain, USA, Chile, Tonga
Band 4: Samoa, Portugal, Romania, Hong Kong China, Zimbabwe, Canada

South Africa and Australia have only met in the pool stages once before, the Springboks winning 27-18 in Cape Town on their way to lifting the Webb Ellis Cup for the first time in their debut tournament appearance in 1995. The Springboks will fear no one and famously dusted themselves down from pool stages losses to New Zealand and Ireland to go on and win the last two Rugby World Cups.

On the flipside, if all the lowest-ranked teams were paired together in a pool, Argentina (ranked 6 and last in Band 1) would be joined by Japan (ranked 12 and last in Band 2), Tonga (ranked 18 and last in Band 3) and Canada (ranked 25 and last in Band 4).

Whatever happens some brand new rivalries are bound to be created and some old ones stoked up. And you can watch all the drama unfold live on RugbyPass TV at 09:00 GMT on 3 December.

The World Rugby Men’s Rankings Top 25

1 South Africa 93.94
2 New Zealand 90.33
3 England 89.41
4 Ireland 87.97
5 France 87.24
6 Argentina 84.97
—
7 Australia 81.53
8 Fiji 81.14
9 Scotland 80.22
10 Italy 78.99
11 Wales 74.24
12 Japan 74.09
—
13 Georgia 73.18
14 Uruguay 69.19
15 Spain 69.01
16 USA 68.26
17 Chile 66.72
18 Tonga 66.66
—
19 Samoa 66.43
20 Portugal 64.98
**21 Belgium** 62.32
22 Romania 61.50
23 Hong Kong China 59.61
24 Zimbabwe 58.80
25 Canada 58.75

*Have not qualified for RWC 2027

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Comments

17 Comments

Eric Elwood 154 days ago

Forget about the pools and lets look at the knock outs.

For the top 6 you want Pool E or F as these will avoid playing a Pool winner until the semi final.

33.334 chance of getting those pools. I would bet NZ and SA.

Australia are guaranteed to be in Pool A. Now if Winners of Pool A will eventually face say SA in a QF on one side and runners up face say Ireland. The fighting to lose the crunch Pool A match might be interesting. A lot of 5 metre scrums with lads scoring tries over their own line!!

Mike Gibson 155 days ago

In a soccer WC or EC the knock outs are dynamically worked out after the groups stages are over. They fill all stadiums, hotel etc. No issue with that.

In RWC 2023 the Knock out progressions were known in advance for Pool winners and Runners up. This means that venues etc could be planned somewhat in advance.

Which will 2027 be? If it is NOT dynamic then the top 4 and top 8 seeds will be very relevant.

e.g. Perth is host city: you want SA there to take advantage of the big SA migrant population. For that to happen into the playoffs you need to fix SAs pool winner to Perth for the Knockouts. So 1/8 final and 1/4 final the winner of SAs pool play in Perth if they advance. Not easy to do unless you fix the draw based on the Pools with the top 4 ranked teams are fixed in locations and separated until the 1/2 finals. This was the case in 2023 when if SA/NZ/ENG/WAL all topped pools and won through they were avoiding eachother until semi final. (NZ v ENG and SA v WAL)

So Seed 1 and Seed 2 (SA/NZ) avoid eachother until the final

If that transpired in 2027:

Top 8

South Africa

New Zealand

England

Ireland

France

Argentina

Australia

Fiji

Potential Quarters going with seedings:

SA v Fij

NZ v Aus

Eng v Arg

Irl v Fra (f**k!!)

Potential Semis going with seedings:

SA v Irl

NZ v Eng

Potential final going with seedings:

SA v NZ

TR0011 156 days ago

Great article Jon, thanks for cutting through the noise with that one! Looking Forward to the draw. IYO who is best placed to crack the Boks code on Aussie soil…. And why?

Jon 153 days ago

The way England are tracking, you’d have to say them. Got lots of strength in depth to counter injuries and are physical, and they do like a RWC in Oz!

Dave Didley 156 days ago

The issue isn’t the pools but the match-ups after that.

On both sides of the draw, the round of 16 could easily produce 2 quarter finals with a direct shootout between 2 pool winners.

Pool winners have never faced off against each other that early.

Eric Elwood 154 days ago

So Pool E/F don’t have to play a Pool winner until the semi. At worst you could be facing Australia/Fiji in a quarter final. Its huge!!

LC 156 days ago

South Africa have won it 4 times, not 3

Eric Elwood 154 days ago

You’re not seriously counting 1995 are you? Nurse Judy warmed the all blacks up for an all nighter with several dozen Splifs (Morrocan Black), before finishing with a gram each of H (Heroin) just before the final kicked off.

Tom 156 days ago

SA, Australia, Georgia, Samoa would be a nasty pool.

Eric Elwood 154 days ago

Winners Pool E,F don’t have to play a Pool winner until the semi final. That might be key for the likes of England, Ireland, France chances. It would mean facing the likes of a tired Australia or Fiji in a QF. On the other hand if SA get in there, extremely hard to stop.

LE 156 days ago

Heres hoping for England, Japan, Tonga, Canada 😄

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