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The Springboks' worst-case 2027 World Cup pool sees meeting with old nemesis
By Josh Raisey
The idea of South Africa fearing anyone heading into the 2027 Rugby World Cup seems a touch ridiculous, given the way they have performed since lifting the Webb Ellis Cup in 2023.
Rassie Erasmus’ side stand head and shoulders above the rest of the world, are comfortably number ones in the world rankings and will have the top seeding in Band 1 when the World Cup draw takes place on Wednesday, available to watch live on RugbyPass TV.
The Springboks are the team everyone else will dread being drawn with, but even they will have a few opponents they’d rather avoid in their pool.
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The five teams we know cannot be drawn with are the fellow Band 1 members – the All Blacks, England, Ireland, France and Argentina. Everyone else is up for grabs.
The Boks have only lost to five teams at the World Cup – three of which are in Band 1 – and boast at least a 50 per cent win record against every team in the competition, except one. That one team happens to be tournament hosts Australia, who are in Band 2 alongside Fiji, Scotland, Italy, Wales and Japan.
Since beating Australia 27-18 in their first-ever World Cup match, South Africa have failed to beat the Wallabies in rugby’s showcase, being dumped out of the 1999 instalment in the semi-finals, and losing at the quarter-final stage 12 years later.
A measly 33 per cent win record is all the Boks have been able to muster against the Wallabies at World Cups. Of course, the global rugby landscape has changed since their last meeting in 2011, with a substantial gap between the Boks at the top of the world rankings and Australia in seventh. But the tournament will be on Australian soil, which has not been a happy hunting ground for the Boks. From their nine visits to Oz to face the Wallabies over the last decade, the men in green have only picked up three victories.
While Japan also lurk in Band 2, who picked up the greatest World Cup shock of all time when they defeated the Boks in the 2015 pool stages, Australia are undoubtedly the trickiest opponent South Africa could be drawn with.
As for Band 3, Georgia, Spain, Uruguay, USA, Chile, Tonga, and Band 4, Samoa, Portugal, Romania, Hong Kong China, Zimbabwe, Canada, the top-ranked team in each band would be the toughest prospect for the Boks, which would be Georgia and Samoa. In truth, the Boks will be untroubled by any team in either Band, and a defeat would be the greatest shock in World Cup history.
In terms of a best-case scenario for South Africa, there is only one team in Band 2 that has never tasted victory over the Springboks: Fiji. However, Mick Byrne’s side are ranked eighth in the world, whereas Japan only just snuck into the top 12 to earn a Band 2 seeding. There was, of course, the Brighton Miracle in 2015, but November’s meeting between the two sides at Wembley showed the gulf in class as the Boks ran out 61-7 winners.
The lowest-ranked teams from Band 3 and Band 4, Tonga and Canada, respectively, would be ideal for South Africa, but, as mentioned, the reigning champions will make light work of any team.
South Africa’s worst-case scenario for the Rugby World Cup 2027 pool draw: South Africa, Australia, Georgia, Samoa
South Africa’s best-case scenario for the Rugby World Cup 2027 pool draw: South Africa, Japan, Tonga, Canada
Four Rugby World Cup seeding bands
Band 1: South Africa, New Zealand, England, Ireland, France, Argentina
Band 2: Australia, Fiji, Scotland, Italy, Wales, Japan
Band 3: Georgia, Spain, Uruguay, USA, Chile, Tonga
Band 4: Samoa, Portugal, Romania, Hong Kong China, Zimbabwe, Canada
