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The RugbyPass Index has been firing on all cylinders since its official launch late last month, with the November international window providing an early litmus test of the RPI’s accuracy.
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The November internationals – while tough to pick at first glance – have proved no match for the Index, with our RPI correctly picking all but one of the fixtures this month to chalk up an impressive 16-1 record.
Most notably, the RPI gave Ireland a 51% chance of toppling the All Blacks in Dublin and the result was an extremely tight affair, with the home side edging the visitors 16-9.
Tonga were written off for their fixture against Wales, with the home side given a 100% chance of victory and delivering with a 10-try 74-24 triumph.
The only game the RPI has called incorrectly this month was Scotland’s clash with South Africa. The RPI gave Scotland a 58% chance of victory but they were downed 26-20 in Edinburgh after a pair of Handre Pollard penalties pushed South Africa in front in the late stages.
The individual player ratings also received a shake-up, with five of the winning Irish side featuring in the international XV of the week – Tadhg Furlong, Devin Toner, Peter O’Mahony, Johnny Sexton and try-scoring hero Jacob Stockdale.
All Blacks flanker Ardie Savea ranks as this week’s top international player after his 14-tackle effort against Ireland. He also tacked on 23 run metres, beat a pair of defenders and won a turnover.
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Just 5 @allblacks now remain in the RPI’s International 1st XV following defeat at the hands of @irishrugby at the weekend, and Kieran Read is very lucky to have made the cut. Explore the RugbyPass Index: index.rugbypass.com #IREvNZL #AllBlacks #IrishRugby
Following the result in Dublin, the gap between our top two teams – New Zealand and Ireland – narrowed. New Zealand dropped close to 1% while Ireland saw a 1.19% increase to bring the margin between the pair to just two points, where they sit with RPI scores of 88 and 86 respectively.
The RPI will be looking to extend its hot streak next weekend with plenty of tough tests ahead. A handsome All Black victory over Italy has been predicted, but it’s all northern hemisphere from there.
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Scotland are tipped to beat Argentina, Wales are tipped to beat South Africa, Ireland should topple the United States, France are picked ahead of Fiji and Eddie Jones should get revenge on his country of birth when England host Australia.
Perhaps the biggest shock of this weekend’s predictions is the chances the Springboks have been given. After narrow wins against France and Scotland, the RPI has given Rassie Erasmus’ Springboks side just a 28% chance of victory against the world’s No. 3 side.
Time will tell if the RPI’s wisdom delivers once again.
Explore the RugbyPass Index here.
Learn more about the RPI here:
Comments on RugbyPass
Think you might have written this just before the Brumbies got thrashed last weekend
5 Go to commentsI really do believe that Billy Proctor should be selected at least in the larger squad but also it would be my choice at 13, much more a center than Ioane who can still play at wing. Roigard if fit should play, otherwise it should be Perenara or Christie. Also, Iose could deserve a spot at blindside. Of course, being a Canes supporter I’m biased but I really believe that at least Billy P is deserving a chance and being Holland one of the Selectors, I’m having a little hope he could grab it.
12 Go to commentsI would not play Swinton I’d pick Wright or Hanigan. The rest are decent starters, but can’t agree on any subs except Tupou. My take on the subs: Gibbon, Ueslese, Tupou, LSL, Wilson, White, Will Harrison, and Petaia.
5 Go to commentsSBW the biggest moron to pull on a black jersey a park footy player at best
7 Go to commentsSBW is fast becoming a laughing stock, his misplaced comments & lack of insight Is actually pretty sad.
7 Go to commentsJust well you guys are couch 🛋 potatoes selector's, picking a team of greenhorns to play England! “What are you people smoking?” The halfbacks will be Christie, Fakatava, Perenara Props; Newell, Bower, Lomax, Tunga'fasi, Hookers; Asosa Amua when fit, Taylor, Samisoni,
12 Go to commentsQuite frankly, all this is a bit pathetic. The first time Wales get the Wooden Spoon in 21 years and everyone is on the bandwagon for a ‘play-off’ game. Wales have no obligation to Georgia and no obligation to the rest of the Six Nations to play such a game. If they want Georgia in so badly then they need to include South Africa into a Northern Hemisphere competition with 2 leagues of 4 teams with the top 2 competing for the Championship. Sadly, this will end Triple Crowns and Grand Slams forever. Is this really what you want?
4 Go to commentsI think Finau to start Blackadder to come on. Poss Prokter instead of Ioane, haven't seen much from Reiko so far this year.
12 Go to commentsJoe will have had a good chat with Dave Rennie, a smart move to begin with while it’s doubtful Fast Eddie will be consulted? Plenty of Aus players hitting top form so they should go OK.
5 Go to commentsMmm. Not sure I like this article or see it as necessary.
7 Go to commentsBlackadder but no Finau! 😀 It’s Razor so you are probably right, plus Taylor at 2…
12 Go to commentsThe strongest possible AB side would actually include Aaron Smith, Bodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Leicester Fainga'anuku, Shannon Frizzel.. don’t get me started on the rest of the injury hit brigade that got flung on the heap so left. Many a whole not getting filled as of yet.
12 Go to commentsI don’t think anyone knows what Schmidt will do, one thing is certain it ain’t gonna be all the picks we on the keyboard will think. My impression of him is that he will be looking at who can step up and what is the best combination. He will ignore individuals as he looks for guys who can build a powerful team and not just guys who can make a flashy run or ignore the winger as they want to score themselves.
5 Go to commentsSome dumb selections there. Not Porecki Not Donaldson Not Gordon Not Lonegran - both Not Nic White - Fines instead Not Liam Wright Not Paisami Definitely not Vunivalu Other than that not bad.
5 Go to commentsI've never been convinced that Patty T is a test match all black. Otherwise I probably agree it's the best side available to beat the poms. Caveat that Codie Taylor is yet to be seen and could very likely warrant selection by June. I hope that Razor brings the young loosies, half backs and locks into the training squad and develops/ selects the best
12 Go to commentsYou doing the same thing I disliked about the example of Samisoni Taukei'aho, Nick. He’s great the way he is, you’re trying to do what modern-day coaches frustrate me doing, turning everyone into the perfect athlete. Next thing you’ll be telling me you’ll bench him until he’s hit that arbitrary marker, and can’t overtake the current guy who’s doing all his workons. He’s a young Kieran Read, through and through, plays wide and has threat, mainly (and evident in your clips) through his two hand carry and speed. Just let him work on that, or whatever he wants, and determine his own future. Play God and you risk the players going sideways, like Read did, instead of being a Toutai Kefu. I mean I was in the same camp for a while, wanting our tight five to have the size, and carry ability, as the teams they were getting beat by. Now I’m starting to believe those teams just have better skilled and practiced individuals, bigger by upwards of 5kg sometimes, sure, but more influentially they have those intrinsic skills of trust and awareness. Basically our guys just didn’t know wtf they were doing. Don’t think I’m trying to prove a point here but hasn’t Caleb Clarke been in much better form this year, or does he just ‘look’ better now that he’s not always trying to use his size?
44 Go to commentsThe pack lacks a little in height for the line out and I wouldn’t be completely convinced by some of the combinations till we see it in action.
12 Go to commentsThe side is good but lacks experience. International playing bona fides udually trumps super rugby form for good reason. And incumbents are usually stuck with. Codie Taylor should start or come off the bench. B Barrett will start at fullback. Blackadder has not earned the position, Finau has. TJs experience and competitiveness earns him a starting role, Christie or Ratima off the bench
12 Go to commentsPretty good side. Scott Barrett should be the captain. Ethan Blackadder a great choice at blindside. He is going to go from strength to strength having made a couple of starts for the Crusaders. Scott Robertson rates him highly. Perenara could start a no 9.
12 Go to commentsI question and with respect. Was enough done over the last few years to bring through new blood knowing the Whitelocks and co couldn’t last forever. There should have been more done to future proof the team. New squad new coach, he and they weren’t set up well. IMO
6 Go to comments