Twelve months ago almost to the day, New Zealand forwards coach Jason Ryan proclaimed a new era of All Blacks scrummaging. His charges had been caught napping at a late scrum in fortress Eden Park and had been pushed off their own feed at a brisk trot in the first match of a Rugby Championship double-header against the Springboks. On the morning after the ignominy, the last remaining member of Ian Foster’s 2023 World Cup coaching crew explained to the assembled Kiwi media that it was a one-off:
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“We just want to get [the ball] out and play to be fair, but there’s one [scrum] where they climbed into us, we lost our footing, tried to get back up, and it was just too late. So that’ll be a ‘never again’ moment.”
Whatever the hair of the dog or the snake oil salesman’s cure, the set-piece headache has lasted considerably longer than one day. The very next week at Wellington’s ‘Cake Tin’, the Kiwi scrum took a few more steps backwards, and the hangover still looms like a black cloud overhead after Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry series which finished in Baltimore at the weekend. There is precious little sign of the patient feeling any better, let alone of a full recovery. The New Zealand scrum still needs regular weekly sessions on the ventilator to keep it alive.
It is a wretched, if not entirely unexpected, outcome for one of the top three nations in the world. In a preview of the series, I wrote that the Boks would be looking to maximise penalty advantage from their own scrum feed, and that is where the All Black had to stop them. As every other major tournament across the world has proven repeatedly, ‘dominance’ is a one-way street, and it is all about doing the business on your own feed:
New Zealand’s apparent helplessness on the South African put-in told a worrying story of decline in recent times, and Dave Rennie’s description of the set-piece performance at the post-match presser in Baltimore – “I thought our set-piece was much stronger tonight, and we’ll take a lot of confidence from that” – will concern die-hard All Blacks supporters no end. The All Blacks conceded three penalties and one free-kick at the four scrums when the strongest Springboks combination of Ox Nche, Malcolm Marx and Wilco Louw was on the field. Parity that is not.
Wind the clock back to 2021 for a moment. Subscribers to Sky Sport’s The Breakdown had no hesitation in naming the World Cup-winning trio of Tony Woodcock, Keven Mealamu and Owen Franks to their starting line-up in ‘New Zealand’s Greatest XV’. Who could argue? Between them the trio had racked up 358 national caps, and along with Franks’ predecessor in the No.3 jersey Carl Hayman, they embodied the most stable phase in New Zealand scrummaging history in the 11 years between 2004 and 2015.
Sir Graham Henry had identified a huge improvement in scrum performance as one of the Key Performance Indicators to usher in a new era of national success after the disappointment of a semi-final loss to Eddie Jones’ Wallabies in 2003. Within 12 months his ‘scrum doctor’ Mike Cron upped measurable output on the scum machine from 1200 kgs of force applied, to 2000 kilos. Nobody, not even front-rowers as intimidating as Tendai ‘The Beast’ Mtawarira and Bismarck Du Plessis, would have forced their way into that New Zealand front row at its peak.
How things have changed since Franks’ final game for the All Blacks on 10 August 2019. That date, and South Africa’s withdrawal from Super Rugby the following year, have marked New Zealand’s card at scrum-time. Since then, there has been the drip-drip-drip of a gradual deterioration, culminating in a steady penalty leak last season against both England and the Boks, to the full-scale blow-out in the current RGR series. The scrum dam has finally burst, and now it needs to be rebuilt from scratch.
A deep dive into the All Blacks’ scrum performance over the course of the series first reveals a huge disparity between the stats of the starting front row and the bench unit:
Whatever their starting combination in the front row, the All Blacks were unable to square the circle on a consistent basis. By way of contrast, front-row performance off the bench was far superior, with the finishers apparently solving the problems experienced by the starting unit, even when the Springboks’ ‘strongman’ front row [Nche-Marx-Louw] were switched to the back end of the game in Cape Town. The All Blacks were never less than comfortable at scrum-time in the last half hour.
A reluctance to take action over the under-performance of Codie Taylor and Tyrel Lomax, who both started three of the four Tests, was critical. At the age of 35, the series has turned out to be a bridge too far for Taylor, while Lomax was never able to regain his class-leading form of 2024 after a long injury lay-off. The preview article argued that the 2026 All Blacks needed iron-clad performances from Lomax and his cohorts on the Springbok feed to have a chance of winning the RGR series. That was a non-negotiable. They did not get them.
The only time the starting New Zealand front row was able to operate in something approaching comfort was under the more benign, forgiving scrum gaze of Australian referee Angus Gardner in the second Test, and in opposition to the reserve Springbok unit of Gerhard Steenekamp, Deon Fourie and Thomas Du Toit. 14 of the 15 scrum penalties were given up when the Bok big boys – Nche, Marx and Louw – were starting the game.
An individual analysis based on my own database rating system provides a gloomy short-hand for individual performance:
With all three of their ratings falling in the range between 30 and 40, the starting front row of either Bower or de Groot, Taylor and Lomax has been sub-par for the course. It was the bench front row of Xavier Numia, Asafo Aumua and Fletcher Newell which came closest to producing the stable, ball-using platform at set-piece Rennie has said he wants, and the one New Zealand will need if it is to hoist ‘Bill’ for the fourth time in Australia next November.
The most worrying scrum incident of all occurred outside the Test matches, at the beginning of the second half in the midweek game against the Lions.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) September 13, 2026
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) August 26, 2026
The Lions front row is the least imposing scrummaging unit among the four URC franchises, featuring three players in S.J Kotze, P.J. Botha and Sebastian Lombard who are unlikely ever to pull on a green-and-gold jersey. That trio was outweighed by over 12 kilos per man by their opponents – Siale Lauaki, Samisoni Taukei’aho and Pasilio Tosi.
On the tight-head side of the All Blacks’ front row, Tosi enjoyed a 30-kilo advantage over Kotze, but none of that advantage is felt throughout a pushover attempt which first slews to the Kiwi right, then walks across the goal-line unopposed after Tosi subsides to the deck. The angle from behind the posts shows that it is ‘walking around’ [Dave] before it becomes ‘scrumming through’ [Rassie], but that is a conversation for another day.
Whatever the technical rights and wrongs of that scrum, the most worrying feature from a Kiwi perspective is that the coaches never looked like finding a fix for it, so the hole in the dyke just kept on growing. The blueprint for the Springbok scrum had been set out as long ago as the France-South Africa game back in November:
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) September 7, 2026
The Springbok tight-head sets up on an angle, Marx shifts over to attack the opposing hooker’s right shoulder and break his bind with the man to his right, the loose-head goes on his ‘walk’, and all of the Bok back-five forwards take a small step to their left before driving straight forward. It was all there, in glaring black and white.
The one scrum where the All Blacks successfully defended the tactic occurred in the only game they won, at the first Test in Ellis Park:
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) August 23, 2026
Aumua blocks Louw successfully, so he cannot penetrate and begins to move sideways rather than forwards. Marx and Steenekamp start dragging or pulling the scrum to the left around Newell on the other side as a result, and the All Blacks win the penalty.
The All Blacks’ scrum performance in the RGR series fell well short of the standards set by the likes of Craig Dowd, Sean Fitzpatrick and Olo Brown at the start of the professional era, and by Woodcock, Mealamu and either Hayman or Franks in the World Cup-winning years. Maybe, one of those twin titans of the past, a Ken Gray or a Kevin Skinner, was needed to steady the ship.
In 1956 New Zealand went to war with South Africa, four years after a tour of the Republic where they had lost all four Test matches and their front-row forwards left the country like sheep, cowed by the strength of the Springboks’ front row. They recalled Skinner, a heavyweight boxer of some renown, and he clipped first Chris Koch, then Jaap Bekker, in short order at the third Test at Christchurch. Koch was on his knees, scrambling to find his front teeth in the Christchurch quag when Skinner proffered a gold ring by way of peace-maker: ‘here, get a couple made from it!’
If New Zealand wants to punch its way out of Springbok scrum domination now, it has to start by developing a new heavyweight tight-head prop over the next 12 months, whether it be Tamaiti Williams or Saula Ma’u. If it means relaxing overseas selection guidance to pluck Sione Ahio from Stade Rochelais in time for the World Cup, set the rulebook aside and get it done. No more games, because this is no longer sport, it is war.
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Nick, how much of their scrum problems can be traced back to Ryan? To me he looks below average and doesn’t have the coaching pedigree to be called a proper scrum coach. His claim to fame is his record in SEP, which is essentially “basketball rugby” where set-piece competency only really matters for restarts.
We see Ryan selecting these slow, ineffective average loose forwards thinking they can simply be retrofitted into props. That approach isn’t working. Look at Tosi, a 29-year-old with fewer than 40 club matches as a prop. Props his age should already have well over 100 caps. It seems Ryan just looks at the biggest forwards he can find and tells them to start scrummaging. Same story with Tamatai, which has now turned into a sad one after he picked up a flesh-eating bug in his back which will put a question mark over his ability to take scrum pressure on his back.
They may need Cron to come back, and Ryan to be dismissed after three years of mediocrity as a scrum coach.
That is what happens when you try and turn rugby union into rugby league.
Super rugby and an useless forwards coach?
Ryan wasn’t useless under Razor, has his influence been diluted?
To be fair, the promise of the AB scrum was always overhyped.
Or maybe it’s just over-reffed HH.
NB I did not accept the central thesis your article after the England game that the ABs had a scrumming problem. I do now. The Boks dominance from game one especially in this area left the ABs scrambling to make up for the deficit. They did well to cover the cracks with some brilliant all of field tries, but I remember even in the glow of the first win, that ominous feeling that we just could not match the Bok set piece especially at scrum. For my part I think we saw some improvement in the fourth test - yes the ABs gave up some penalties, but it was not the ice skating kind. However, that fragility meant that the ABs had to place disproportionate pressure on the open running game to win, as well as pushing boundaries across every other facet of the game. Ultimately, when playing the most efficient, organised team on the planet - it was always going to be a too big of an ask. And if there was ever a time for a change of forward coach - and new position of director of high performance forwards development - it’s now.
Whatever the bots on social media say, there is a fragile balance between losing the physical confrontation and losing the ref. On this tour the ABs lost both.
Angus Gardner was very patient at setup but not so Nika and Karl Dickson in the last two Tests. So they lost many more of the 50/50 scrums, like collapses, on perception. You can’t afford that at this level, becaue you ar bound to get teh same refs again and that will be at the back of their mind.
I can hear Cronno’s phone ringing now😁
I’ve been waiting for a place to reflect on the tour without the unnecessary negativity that popped up after the 4th test.
Well done Springboks, I think 3-1 was a fair result. Living with this Springboks side for 80mins is enough of a challenge, let alone 320 minutes! So the All Blacks can hold their heads high too. Perhaps a few bounces of the ball our way in the second test and we could have squeaked a drawn series, maybe.
Also the refereeing was pretty consistent throughout and wasn’t the deciding factor.
If you’ve come to whinge about loosing or even whinge when you won.
Kindly get lost
3-1 was about right, but annoyingly, 2-2 was far from out of reach Toko!
I didn’t feel the reffing was that consistent - see next piece! Not consistent across the equator and not consistent with doemstic league profile…
The modern AB's want to play touch rugby. Colin Meads will turn in his grave with this AB lot. No grunt no hard men. The AB'S must continue with heir flower and pansies type of play. They will regress. Shame that the old school AB grunt is gone
Maybe this is why Scott Barrett got a mention from DR. He’s not huge by modern standards but he has an old school outlook!
Alot of people have talked about how the AB's are making progress and getting closer to the Boks. Its also important to ask where the net gain has been. In 4 games under Razor the AB's attack failed dismally and struggled to score tries. The Boks outscored them comprehensively. Even so the All Blacks led for long periods in Joburg and Cape Town in 24. They lost each game by one score. They led all the way in Auckland and led for a quarter of the match in Wellington. Razors team always lost control in the final quarter of matches against the boks where the Boks bench completely overpowered them.
Under Rennie the AB's have scored plenty of tries, more than the Boks, they have rediscovered their attacking threat but they have regressed in other areas. Their scrum has totally capitulated, their lineout has been hammered, they are turning the ball over more at break down and in the tackle. They are making mistakes within their attacking template that has cost them and presented the Boks opportunities and so their defence has suffered with the Boks making hay in the last 3 games outscoring them in terms of tries and pts during that period. They have conceded 2 and 3 score leads in the last 3 matches heading into the final quarter. At Cape Town it was 16 points, Soweto 12 pts and in the US 15 pts. The Boks established control of Rennies team earlier and led for longer with AB's forced to chase games. They won the second half in Ellis Park comprehensively and the final quarters in the next 2 matches matches but little else illustrating the lack of control for the AB's.
Under Razor the AB's tried to play a structured, low risk game with powerful forwards and strike plays off set piece with plenty of kicking. Under Rennie the AB's are playing a free flowing passing game based on continuity and phase play with ball retention and layered attack which carries far more risk. Different styles, same result. They have made great strides in returning to their traditional strengths but that alone doesnt signal progress. Other parts of their game have regressed, the loss of control has shifted from the last quarter to the first 3 and they have failed to answer familiar fundamental questions at set piece and off contestables. In the end we have to ask, has there been a net gain in performance against the Boks or have they just slapped lipstick on the pig and proclaimed it a beauty?
So far DR has done what the Kiwi public demanded of of Razor’s successor NLR, he restored some of the old attacking values like width and the counter-attack.
There are plenty of signs that the AB attack can be superb but few of the stability in contact situations needed to navigate a team like the Boks. It’s not a made-up pig by any means but we need to see some of those old forward values that Ted instilled in 2004.
Have you come here to make the case that the All Blacks under Razor who could barely get out of first get gear on attack would have done any better on this tour? It would have been 4 Wellingtons. Instead of 17 tries it would have been 7 if we were lucky.
Over 2 years the team got worse and worse under Razor. Barring two good wins over Ireland, the two losses against South Africa in 2024 were probably the two best games we played. It was all downhill from there.
The one sided loss to an average England team last year was one of the most abject failures I can remember watching live. We were not in the game. Or squeaking past Italy by 7 points.
Razor had 6 months of planning from when he became the coach to the first game. And he was appointed 3 months before that. Rennie had 10 days before the first game and 10 weeks to prepare the team for what is probably the toughest rugby tour of the professional era.
They are making many of the same bone-headed mistakes as the last few years which is very painful. But we are also getting 10+ line breaks every week against the world’s best defence and scoring 4 tries every game.
I would take where we are now over where we were in November last year.
Im not sure the regression is that clear. This was a tough tour with little lead up.
If they can’t fix these issues by the end of year tour though. Then I’ll be worried, mistakes will be made but they need to keep progressing to make it through that quarter final
The All Blacks have regressed. Where are the hard men All Black men of old? This fancy pansy type of rugby that the AB's want to play now is so ridiculous. Sort your scrum, sort your line out, sort your collisions. Before you play airy fairy.
France will also decimate this AB team.