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The Ireland Scotland scoreline that'd knock South Africa out of World Cup
The permutations of Pool B of the Rugby World Cup have been a major discussion point, with all three of Ireland, South Africa and Scotland still in the race to make the quarter-finals with the final weekend of pool matches approaching.
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South Africa beat Tonga 49-18 last night in Marseille, their final game of the pool stages, but contrary to what some fans think, the Springboks’ fate still lies in the hands of Scotland and Ireland, who both obviously have a game in hand.
While the Boks currently occupy top spot in Pool B with 15 points, Ireland need just one point to draw even with the reigning champs, while Scotland need a bonus win to arrive on 15 points.
What Ireland need
Ireland needs to avoid defeat to Scotland to guarantee qualification as the pool winners. A draw would take them to 16, while a four-point win would take them to 18 and a try bonus point win would take them to 19. A losing bonus point would also almost certainly be enough to bag Ireland a quarter-final spot. However, a losing bonus while denying Scotland a 4-try bonus point would be enough. More on that in a minute.
What Scotland need
Scotland needs to beat Ireland and deny Ireland a bonus point, to knock Andy Farrell’s side out of the tournament outright, as if both are on 14, the Scots win on head to head regardless of points difference, with the Boks going through as group winners on 15. Scotland will be desperate to deny Ireland a losing bonus point.
All tied on fifteen
Things get interesting if all teams end up with fifteen points on the standings.
If all three teams are tied at the end of pool stages, the team with the best points difference goes through. Teams placed second and third then come down to their head-to-head, or in the case of a draw between both sides, it goes back to points difference.
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Going into the weekend Ireland are on +122, the Boks have +117 points, while the Scots have +97.
Rugby World Cup
Pool A
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
France
3
3
0
0
13
2
New Zealand
3
2
1
0
10
3
Italy
3
2
1
0
10
4
Uruguay
3
1
2
0
5
5
Namibia
4
0
4
0
0
Pool B
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
South Africa
4
3
1
0
15
2
Ireland
3
3
0
0
14
3
Scotland
3
2
1
0
10
4
Tonga
3
0
3
0
0
5
Romania
3
0
3
0
0
Pool C
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
Wales
3
3
0
0
14
2
Australia
4
2
2
0
11
3
Fiji
3
2
1
0
10
4
Georgia
3
0
2
1
3
5
Portugal
3
0
2
1
2
Pool D
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
England
3
3
0
0
14
2
Argentina
3
2
1
0
9
3
Japan
3
2
1
0
9
4
Samoa
3
1
2
0
6
5
Chile
4
0
4
0
0
What the Springboks want
The ideal South African scenario is Scotland beating Ireland and denying Andy Farrell’s men a losing bonus point, as it would see the Boks go through as group winners. If Ireland lost to Scotland by seven points or less and the Scots don’t get a bonus point, the Springboks would go through as pool runners up, with Ireland going through as pool winners on head to heads. If Ireland avoids defeat, South Africa also goes through to the quarters as pool runners-up.
What the Springboks don’t want
The nightmare scoreline for South Africa goes like this: if Scotland beat Ireland by 21 points or more with a four-try bonus and Ireland get a four-try bonus point in defeat, then South Africa will be knocked out of the Rugby World Cup. Scotland would go through as pool winners, while due to their head-to-head loss with Ireland and a points difference lower than Scotland, the Boks would be eliminated.
According to the match-fixing conspiracy theories doing the rounds on the internet, Ireland and Scotland could agree to this result, as it’s the one scenario that would see them both qualify. What’s in it for Ireland? They guarantee that they won’t have to face the Springboks again at the tournament.
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This makes very little sense, as it would see Ireland playing France, likely led by Dupont, in the quarter-finals.
What is clear is that Pool B – aka the Pool of Death – has lived up to its billing and fans of all three teams will be left to chew their nails going into the final weekend of matches.
Comments on RugbyPass
A distinct discomfort with the officiating they were probably selected from the local IRA narcos branch along with the commentators bloody fly tippers.
1 Go to commentsWow, never thought I would read that
1 Go to commentsExcellent match. Great to see Keenan and Ryan back for Leinster. Super result for Ulster. Season is turning around.
1 Go to comments“We need eight or nine new players, who are hard-wearing and durable and experienced Premiership performers”. So why are they scouting a retired fullback who himself admits that his “body is broken”?
1 Go to commentsBrumbies hand, knocked a Crusaders hand. Therefore, knock on in goal. Crusaders, goal line drop out should’ve been awarded. most likely after that 24 each at full time, so extra time would’ve been the right an entertaining outcome. Act Jim
1 Go to commentsSpeell cehck
1 Go to commentsColeman is gaawwwwnnn.
1 Go to commentsnext SA head coach?
3 Go to commentsGreat try by van Poortvliet.
1 Go to commentsThey have been cruelled by injuries but almost nobody (Sevu Reece and Fletcher Newell big exceptions) has played above himself which regularly happened before. Surely Scott Robertson had maintained the recruitment programme and it looks like a reasonable squad. Last in this competition will stall a lot of careers. Penny seems likeable. But it’s not enough even though this was better. We haven’t been good enough and it’s not helped by the “it’s been 15 years since… “etc “after nearly every match. Seems somehow a soft gifting of something once valuable. Kieran Read giving comments last week almost choked describing the easy surrender of possession by the forwards. I’d love to think that the senior players some of whom are back can show enough pride in the jersey to test the Blues next week.
3 Go to commentsWho will Joe select for the back three with so many in form candidates? Just hope he doesn’t get shafted like Dave Rennie and to a lesser extent Deans.
6 Go to commentsAlways reluctant to blame a coach when losses rack up, but Penney must go. The backline is dysfunctional and the coach must carry the can. No cohesion, no idea and in many cases, minimal skill. The trains out of Roma St depart faster than the ball from Crusaders’ set pieces. Wouldn’t be surprised if the forwards went on strike.
3 Go to commentsAdding to earlier comment. Cullen Grace has been playing great at no6. Lio-Willie , who was on fire a few weeks ago, had a bad game. I think Cullen should have been moved to 8 earlier, Dominic Gardiner on earlier. Feel for Quinten Strange , put in a big shift .
6 Go to commentsWe dominated the scrums Ben Curry was all over pitch again .Surely James Harper got to be one of best English tightheads
1 Go to commentsRoos is a better option at 6 than 8 for the boks. Needs to work on his windgat though.
1 Go to commentsThe Sharks’ 2nd team maybe?
1 Go to comments‘radical’
1 Go to commentsCome back to Christchurch Robbie, please!
1 Go to commentsI think there is zero chance Sam Cane will be selected for another Test. There is simply no point except sentimentality. Razor is not sentimental- ask Wyatt Crocket. Razor is a ruthless selector
5 Go to comments> It would be best described as an elegant solution to what was potentially going to be a significant problem for new All Blacks coach Scott Robertson. It is a problem the mad population of New Zealand will have to cope with more and more as All Blacks are able to continue their careers in NZ post RWCs. It will not be a problem for coaches, who are always going to start a campaign with the captain for the next WC in mind. > Cane, despite his warrior spirit, his undoubted commitment to every team he played for and unforgettable heroics against Ireland in last year’s World Cup quarter-final, was never unanimously admired or respected within New Zealand while he was in the role. Neither was McCaw, he was considered far too passive a captain and then out of form until his last world cup where everyone opinions changed, just like they would have if Cane had won the WC. > It was never easy to see where Cane, or even if, he would fit into Robertson’s squad given the new coach will want to be building a new-look team with 2027 in mind. > Cane will win his selections on merit and come the end of the year, he’ll sign off, he hopes, with 100 caps and maybe even, at last, universal public appreciation for what was a special career. No, he won’t. Those returning from Japan have already earned the right to retain their jersey, it’s in their contract. Cane would have been playing against England if he was ready, and found it very hard to keep his place. Perform, and they keep it however. Very easy to see where Cane could have fit, very hard to see how he could have accomplished it choosing this year as his sabbatical instead of 2025, and that’s how it played out (though I assume we now know what when NZR said they were allowing him to move his sabbatical forward and return to NZ next year, they had actually agreed to simply select him for the All Blacks from overseas, without any chance he was going to play in NZ again). With a mammoth season of 15 All Black games they might as well get some value out of his years contract, though even with him being of equal character to Richie, I don’t think they should guarantee him his 100 caps. That’s not what the All Blacks should be about. He absolutely has to play winning football.
5 Go to comments