Super Rugby Power Rankings: You Have To Lose One Before You Can Win One
A team who lost to the Jaguares last weekend remains the team to beat in the Super Rugby playoffs – at least according to Scotty Stevenson’s final playoffs edition power rankings.
1. Lions
Last week: 1 (N/C)
You can’t judge the Lions playoff team on the result of last week’s game against the Jaguares because that was a very different team. Coach Johan Ackermann rested 23 of his players last week, potentially gambling away his grand final hosting rights in order to the boost his quarterfinal victory chances. Some would say that is a rational bet. Others might say that is the craziest coaching move in the history of Super Rugby.
The Lions finished the regular season in second spot, but they still have top spot in the power rankings, and here’s why: they have the Ellis Park advantage over the Crusaders who used up so much gas at sea level that it would be amazing if they had enough left for altitude. The Lions have also scored more points and more tries, run for more metres, beaten more defenders, and won more turnovers than any other team in the competition.
It gets better: the Lions scrum has forced the worst opposition win percentage this season, and they allow the fewest passes, the fewest carries, the fewest rucks and the lowest average time in possession. The Lions, simply, are a very good team.
2. Hurricanes
Last week: 4 (up 2)
What is it with the Hurricanes? The more impossible the task the more chance it seems this team has of completing it. How else can you explain them losing to the Sharks back in May then rolling the Crusaders in a bonus-point victory in Christchurch on Saturday to set up the most implausible minor premiership ever?
Coach Chris Boyd said this week that they may not be the best team on paper (unless you are looking at a print out of the regular season table, I suppose) and he may have a point. The Hurricanes boast just one player (Julian Savea) in the top 25 ball runners in the competition and just one player (Ardie Savea) in the top 25 ball carriers. Thank goodness for Mr and Mrs Savea.
Yet, maybe that’s the secret to the last couple of years of Hurricanes rugby: they play like a team, rather than rely on a handful of stars. Only the Chiefs, Crusaders and Lions have scored more points per game this season, and the Hurricanes still make the most carries per game, and the second most metres per game of any side. They are also tough to beat at the break down, where they have won more rucks than any other play off team.
The Sharks may have got the better of the Hurricanes back in May, but it’s hard to see the final qualifier troubling the top qualifier in Wellington this week.
3. Highlanders
Last week: 5 (up 2)
All the pre-match talk last weekend was that the Highlanders may feel the sting from the last couple of weeks worth of travel which saw them take on the Kings in South Africa before facing the Jaguares in Argentina, before returning home to Forsyth Barr to meet the Chiefs. So much for that theory.
The Highlanders may well be the best conditioned team in the competition, and play the game at such a pace you are left to wonder whether they are just trying to get it over and done with so they can have a beer. They were manic against the Chiefs. If it isn’t in the clean out, then it is attack of set piece, and it if isn’t that then it’s expert kick chase or quick line out throws. They never slow down.
They will be odds-on to beat the Brumbies in Canberra, although this is one of those games that requires some tipping caution. The Brumbies, on their day, can manufacture a certain kind of tempo that the Highlanders won’t enjoy but whether they have the variation in attack to trouble a team that makes more tackles than any other is questionable.
It may surprise readers that there is no side in the competition that kicks the ball more than the Highlanders, and that won’t change against the Brumbies. This is a team that loves to say “here it is, now what are you going to do with it”, and the answer all season has been, “not much.” Only one team has allowed fewer points this season, and we’ll get to them later.
4. Chiefs
Last week: 3 (N/C)
The hardest thing about the flight to Cape Town for the Chiefs is spending all that time in an enclosed space with Dave Rennie and Kieran Keane who were understandably a little gutted about the result against the Highlanders on the weekend. The top spot was their for the taking at Forsyth Barr but the ‘Landers were too good (again) for the visitors.
The Chiefs are rightly lauded for their counter attack, but against the Highlanders it felt like the Chiefs spent too much time waiting for the counter and not enough time building the attack. Even Aaron Cruden, in his half time interview, hinted at the lack of patience from the Chiefs.
There is no doubt the Chiefs boast a better attack that the Stormers, but in most categories the numerical advantage is negligible. They offload more – and will need to – and run for more metres, but the Stormers are no slouches on the carry either. Where the Chiefs can prosper is in their kick return game.
That said, the Chiefs could well use the kicking game themselves, knowing the Stormers have struggled to play rugby outside their own half this season. If they hem them in and – importantly – kick their goals, they should account for the hosts with some comfort.
5. Crusaders
Last week: 2 (down 3)
Of all the ways to bottle the regular season, getting beaten up by the Hurricanes at home would probably be the worst, but this has been the one sticking point for the Crusaders all season: playing New Zealand sides.
The Crusaders have not lost to a foreign opponent all season, and have already beaten the Lions in South Africa (43-37) but they have struggled against teams that have shown a willingness to be creative with the ball and finished the year 2-4 against their fellow kiwis.
All of that is a roundabout way of saying that flying to Johannesburg to take on the most open, running team in South Africa is just about the worst assignment you can imagine for this team.
There is plenty of hope though. The Crusaders have made more clean breaks than any other side this season (though many of those can be assigned to giant winger Nemani Nadolo who has been ruled out of the quarterfinal) and they also make more offloads than anyone else.
Add to that some staunch defence (the fewest missed tackles per game this year, and the best tackle percentage) and you still have a team that is more than capable of winning this game, and the whole damn thing. They will need Andy Ellis back, and they’ll need something special out of first five Richie Mounga who is still a baby at this level and will be up against a wily old veteran in Elton Jantjies.
6. Stormers
Last week: 7 (up 1)
I’ve been tough on the Stormers this season because they have been unconvincing as a rugby team. Yet here they are, with home advantage, in the playoffs. So much for style over substance.
The one thing we do know about the Stormers is that they are defensively impressive, and have conceded the third fewest points per game this year. They also know how to take the points when they are on offer, and given the Chiefs got themselves into all sorts of penalty pressure against the Highlanders last week, they can ill afford to test the refereeing team in this match.
We’ve already covered the Stormers inability to play territory this year, but where they can come unstuck against the Chiefs is in their appalling turnover rate. They have lost the ball more times than any other team this season which is no drama against the Sunwolves and the Cheetahs, but a massive ball ache against the click play of the Chiefs.
The Stormers lineout will be a massive asset for them with Pieter-Steph du Toit and Eben Etzebeth both ranking in the top 15 lineout forwards this season. Neither of the Chiefs locks, Brodie Retallick or Dominic Bird, rank in the top 25.
On the home advantage thing: the Stormers have a frankly disastrous play off record. Newlands may be a formidable place to play, but it’s hardly a fortress.
7. Brumbies
Last week: 8 (up 1)
The Brumbies have a great line out drive.
8. Sharks
Last week 10 (up 2)
I’m not entirely sure the Sharks should be in the playoffs, but I don’t make the rules and so here they are. It is doubtful if there has ever been a team in Super Rugby so averse to playing rugby. The Sharks carry the ball less than any other team, pass the ball less than any other team, and win fewer rucks than any other team.
It’s like attack is an optional extra with these blokes, and they’ve decided not to upgrade. That said, they still somehow manage to make more metres per game than the Brumbies, which says more about the Brumbies than the Sharks I think.
There is only one team in the competition that spends less time in possession than the Sharks, and that’s the Kings. In the Kings’ defence, that was only because they had no idea what the ball was for and spent most of the time they did have it coming up with all new and exciting ways to give it back.
We can all agree that the Sharks attack is pretty much non-existent, but they do have an ace up their sleeve – they have the best defensive record of any team in the playoffs, conceding a measly 17.9 points per game. That being said, much of that has to do with the fact teams haven’t been able to kick goals against them. Sharks opponents this season have combined for just 62% from the tee.
Comments on RugbyPass
It was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
5 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
29 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
1 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to commentsJust such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
5 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to commentsWhat remorse? She claimed that her dangerous tackle wasn’t worthy of a red! She should be compensating the injured player for loss of earnings at the minimum. Her ban should include the recovery time of the injured player as well as the paltry 3 match ban.
5 Go to commentsArdie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not that “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. Indeed. There’s no debate.
2 Go to commentsThere’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to comments