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Super Rugby stats guru Paul Neazor offers his tips for the Easter weekend.
The Sunwolves’ unforeseen triumph over the Bulls in Tokyo last week tripped up every Super Rugby tipster under the sun, The Oracle included. That result along with the Stormers win over the Chiefs left him with a 5/7 week; 43/56 for the season, still a sterling 77%. Here’s what Easter weekend has in store.
Crusaders vs Sunwolves (Christchurch)
One suspects the Crusaders, unbeaten and in second place, might be too strong for the Sunwolves, with one win and currently sitting in 17th. Throw in the psych-out factor of this being the Sunwolves first game in New Zealand and against the most storied franchise of the all, and this game might be decided before they get on the field. Still, the Crusaders probably can’t afford to take the Mickey – but the return of Kieran Read should put a stop to any nonsense. I can’t see any possible reason for the Crusaders to drop this one and, unless the pitch is flooded, they’ll win it easily.
Pick: Crusaders
Reds vs Kings (Brisbane)
After the Reds’ opening round win over the Sharks most would have been inked this in as a five-pointer for the home side. But since then the Kings have had more wins (one) and on most weekends have played the better rugby. They were a bit helter-skelter at Perth last week and let go of a game a good team would have closed out, but they still played more attacking footy in 40 minutes than the Reds have managed all year. I think the Reds should win – but it might not be by a lot.
Pick: Reds
Blues vs Hurricanes (Auckland)
The match of the round in New Zealand, this will no doubt be like all the other matches between New Zealand sides. That is: rugged, extremely physical and not at all easy to win. It’s the Blues’ fifth match against New Zealand sides so far this season (currently they’re 0-4) and probably their most difficult yet. The Hurricanes have been so dangerous on attack this year that it’s hard to go against them. One thing I am sure of is that they won’t clock off at halftime this week as they did against the Waratahs. I can’t see the Blues winning it but I can see them making life very difficult for the defending champs for at least the first hour.
Pick: Hurricanes
Rebels vs Brumbies (Melbourne)
Until last weekend I would have said this game could be the best cure for insomnia marketed this year. After watching the Brumbies let their backs run against the Reds last weekend, I’ve changed my tune. If that happens again, they’ll cut the fragile midfield of the Rebels open on a regular basis and it could be an entertaining watch. If they go back to tried-and-true they’ll still have too much for the Melbourne side, but it will be a grind. I’m hoping for Plan A, and therefore picking the Brumbies to win by quite a bit.
Pick: Brumbies
Cheetahs vs Chiefs (Bloemfontein)
A comparison each side’s last outing (both against the Stormers at Cape Town) says all you really need to know about this match. The Cheetahs were beaten all over the park and the Stormers eventually ran up a half-century. The Chiefs also lost, but gave the Stormers plenty and opened their defence on several occasions. I know which game would have left the table-toppers more relieved to hear the final whistle. The Chiefs should win this by plenty, unless they play the fool with selections.
Pick: Chiefs
Stormers vs Lions (Cape Town)
The match of the round without any doubt. These two teams have been in great touch over the whole season so far. The Lions have lost once, when they sent an under-strength team to Argentina, and the Stormers are six-from-six on merit. Last weekend’s win over the Chiefs was really good; they played some excellent rugby on attack and defended stoutly when the call came. The Lions do the same, but are not quite as rugged when they’re not is possession. The Stormers are growing on me this year, but I’ve liked the Lions for the last couple of seasons. So in the heart vs head battle I think I’d pick the Lions, but in the real world? Maybe the Stormers by one score. But hang onto your hats, because it should be very good indeed.
Pick: Stormers
Bulls vs Jaguares (Pretoria)
The Bulls and Jaguares will both need to play out of their skins if they want to live up to the Stormers vs Lions game preceding them. Neither side plays with a great deal of adventure – the Jaguares can, but often don’t away from home – and neither impressed much last weekend when both lost winnable games. At the start of the season I thought the Bulls might do something. Well, they have, but it wasn’t quite what I thought. They’ve been pretty ordinary and lost to the Sunwolves despite dominating territory and possession. If the Jaguares could have caught the ball things might have been different, but 19 handling errors will kill any team. I’m going for the Jaguares here, but it could be quite ugly.
Pick: Jaguares
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TL;DR: Crusaders / Reds / Hurricanes / Brumbies / Chiefs / Stormers / Jaguares.
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Comments on RugbyPass
Bold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
1 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to commentsWe had during the week twilight footy, twilight cricket, tw golf plus there was the athletics club. Then the weekend was rugby 15s plus the net ball, really busy club scene back then but so much has changed and rugby has suffered. And it was all about changing lifestyles.
6 Go to commentsIn the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getting to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
6 Go to commentsROG’s contract is until 2027. The conversation about a successor to Galthie after RWC 2027 may be starting now. We can infer that Galthie’s reign stops then. He is throwing the Irish Coaching Job angle in because he is Irish. The next Irish coach MUST be Leo Cullen. As well as being the best coach available, coaching the vast majority of Irish Internationals week in week out, he has shown incredible skill at recruiting the best coaching staff for the job in hand. That was a failing in France. Cullen is a shrewd guy and if there is a need for foreign coaches underneath him he won’t hesitate. Rightly so. Ireland does need to start to bring Irish coaches through. Not just at the professional level but we need to train coaches to man new pathways for developing kids from schools/clubs up through the divisions.
8 Go to commentsNo Islam says it must rule where it stands Thus it is to be deleted from this planet Earth
18 Go to commentsThis team probably does not beat the ABs sadly Not sure if BPA will be available given his signing for Force but has to enter consideration. Very strong possibility of getting schooled by the AB props. Advantage AB. Rodda/Skelton would be a tasty locking combination - would love to see how they get on. Advantage Wallabies. Backrow a risk of getting out hustled and outmuscled by ABs. Will be interesting to see if the Blues feast on the Reds this weekend the way they did the Brumbies we are in big trouble at the breakdown. Great energy, running and defence but goalkicking/general kicking/passing quality in the halves bothers me enormously. SA may have won the World Cup for a lot of the tournament without a recognised goalkicker but Pollard in the final made a difference IMO. Injuries and retirements leave AB stocks a bit lighter but still stronger. 12 and 13 ABs shade it (Barret > Paisami, Ione = Ikitau, arguably) Interesting clash of styles on the wings - Corey Toole running around Caleb Clark and Caleb running over the top of Toole. Reece vs Koro probably the reverse. Pretty even IMO. 15s Kelleway = Love See advantage to ABs man for man, but we are not obviously getting slaughtered anywhere which makes a nice change. Think talent wise we are pretty even and if our cohesion and teamwork is better than the ABs then its just about doable.
11 Go to commentsCompletely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
6 Go to comments1.97m and 105Kg? Proportionately, probably skinnier than me at 1.82 and 82kilos. He won’t survive against the big guys at that weight.
55 Go to commentsThe value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
8 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
11 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
61 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
11 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
61 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
8 Go to comments