LONG READ 'South Africa have the All Blacks right where they want them'

The All Blacks have made a terrible mistake. They have beaten the Springboks.

Worse, they have beaten them convincingly enough to ensure every South African player, coach and supporter will spend every minute until Saturday’s kick-off thinking about little else. The score was 33-16. New Zealand scored five tries to South Africa’s one. The Boks lost their world number one ranking, their 12-match winning streak and the first Test of a four-match series.

In other words, Rassie Erasmus and his players are exactly where they want to be.

The Springboks are at their most dangerous when they are unhappy. They need to feel aggrieved. They need a problem. They need to believe the outside world has reached a premature conclusion about them. The All Blacks have just provided all three.

This is, of course, a ridiculous theory. Nobody deliberately loses the opening Test of a series against New Zealand, particularly not by failing to convert pressure, conceding two yellow cards and allowing a lock to charge down a scrum-half. But if South Africa’s most important achievements of the Erasmus era have taught us anything, it is adversity does not necessarily damage this team. If anything, it seems to compel them to greater heights.

Erasmus’s first victory as Springboks coach came in the most appropriate way imaginable. On Siya Kolisi’s historic debut as captain in 2018, South Africa fell 24-3 behind England at Ellis Park. The new era appeared to be collapsing before it had properly begun.

Then the Boks scored 39 of the next 54 points to win 42-39. That match contained many of the features that would become familiar under Erasmus: panic converted into clarity, physicality sharpened by desperation and a group of players who seemed to become more coherent once the situation deteriorated. A comfortable victory would have been a welcome christening. A spectacular comeback was much more instructive.

The 2019 World Cup followed a similar script. South Africa lost to New Zealand in their opening pool match. No team had ever lifted the Webb Ellis Cup after dropping a game.

Then they watched Eddie Jones’ England dismantle the All Blacks in the semi-finals in what remains one of the most formidable performances of all time. Understandably, Matt Dawson failed to pick a single South African when he came up with a combined XV ahead of the final in his pre-match column. The Boks responded by thrashing England 32-12.

As any South African knows, a well-tarred road can produce a trickier ride than one riddled with potholes. South African rugby has developed in a country where almost nothing is straightforward, where political, social and economic pressures have made comfort feel temporary and certainty feel suspicious.

Then came the 2021 British and Irish Lions series. South Africa lost the first Test 22-17, then won the next two 27-9 and 19-16. Once again, the Boks were not required to be perfect. They were required to be better after something had gone wrong.

By 2023, the pattern had become a kind of national sporting ritual. South Africa lost to Ireland in the pool stage. They then survived France 29-28 in one of the great World Cup quarter-finals, beat England 16-15 in a semi-final in which they spent large periods looking strangely short of ideas, and edged New Zealand 12-11 in the final.

South Africa did not cruise through that tournament. They lurched through it, dragging themselves from one crisis to the next until, somehow, they were holding the trophy. This has happened too many times for it to be a coincidence.

Perhaps this is what separates these Springboks from Richie McCaw’s All Blacks. That New Zealand team was comfortable being on top. It could dominate a tournament, a season or an opponent without needing a personal insult to get it going. Between the 2011 and 2015 World Cups, McCaw’s All Blacks lost only three Tests. They made superiority feel routine.

As any South African knows, a well-tarred road can produce a trickier ride than one riddled with potholes. South African rugby has developed in a country where almost nothing is straightforward, where political, social and economic pressures have made comfort feel temporary and certainty feel suspicious. The Springboks have so tightly tethered themselves to the national psyche that they carry the memory of being dismissed, doubted and repeatedly told that their way of doing things is ugly, outdated or about to be exposed.

That does not mean South Africa needs to suffer in order to win. It means suffering has become familiar territory. And now the All Blacks have led them into it.

None of this changes the need for a proper post-mortem. South Africa were not beaten by some abstract force of destiny. They were beaten because they failed to convert pressure, lost control of the match after half-time and allowed New Zealand to punish every lapse.

The All Blacks spent prolonged periods camped on their own try line. South Africa’s scrum was superior, but the advantage produced too few points. Then Fabian Holland charged down Grant Williams, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu was held up and New Zealand’s replacement front-row steadied the scrum.

The match turned on those moments. South Africa had territorial dominance without enough attacking precision. New Zealand had fewer opportunities but made more of them. That is what must change in Cape Town.

Handré Pollard offers the calm game management the Boks lacked at Ellis Park, particularly in balancing territory and scoreboard pressure.

Thomas du Toit should give South Africa greater authority from the bench and help preserve their scrum when the match enters its decisive stages, while Lood de Jager brings more experience and control than Cobus Wiese in the second row. Handré Pollard offers the calm game management the Boks lacked at Ellis Park, particularly in balancing territory and scoreboard pressure. Alongside Cobus Reinach — who might not have the same zip as Williams but provides more nous — it is a half-back pairing built to stop the match unravelling.

The bigger attacking question concerns Damian Willemse. He needs to see more of the ball at first receiver, before the All Blacks’ defensive line has settled, especially with Pollard in the 10 jersey. Willemse’s ability to manipulate space and change the point of attack is too valuable to leave on the margins of the game. Whatever shape has been pre-planned, he has to be involved earlier and more often this weekend.

The task is now brutally simple. South Africa must win three Tests in a row to take the series. They have done that against New Zealand before, most recently in 2009, but history is not a plan. It is merely evidence the route is possible.

The All Blacks have earned the right to be favourites. They were the better team at Ellis Park and exposed flaws the Springboks must now correct. But by winning so convincingly, they have also given South Africa a clear opponent, a clear deficit and a very clear question to answer.

New Zealand have won the first Test. They may yet discover that, against these Springboks, winning first is not the same as winning last.