The All Blacks have made a terrible mistake. They have beaten the Springboks.
NEW: Follow Your favourites in the App 📱
You can now follow their favourite teams, tournaments and players in the RugbyPass App!
Worse, they have beaten them convincingly enough to ensure every South African player, coach and supporter will spend every minute until Saturday’s kick-off thinking about little else. The score was 33-16. New Zealand scored five tries to South Africa’s one. The Boks lost their world number one ranking, their 12-match winning streak and the first Test of a four-match series.
In other words, Rassie Erasmus and his players are exactly where they want to be.
The Springboks are at their most dangerous when they are unhappy. They need to feel aggrieved. They need a problem. They need to believe the outside world has reached a premature conclusion about them. The All Blacks have just provided all three.
This is, of course, a ridiculous theory. Nobody deliberately loses the opening Test of a series against New Zealand, particularly not by failing to convert pressure, conceding two yellow cards and allowing a lock to charge down a scrum-half. But if South Africa’s most important achievements of the Erasmus era have taught us anything, it is adversity does not necessarily damage this team. If anything, it seems to compel them to greater heights.
Erasmus’s first victory as Springboks coach came in the most appropriate way imaginable. On Siya Kolisi’s historic debut as captain in 2018, South Africa fell 24-3 behind England at Ellis Park. The new era appeared to be collapsing before it had properly begun.
Then the Boks scored 39 of the next 54 points to win 42-39. That match contained many of the features that would become familiar under Erasmus: panic converted into clarity, physicality sharpened by desperation and a group of players who seemed to become more coherent once the situation deteriorated. A comfortable victory would have been a welcome christening. A spectacular comeback was much more instructive.
The 2019 World Cup followed a similar script. South Africa lost to New Zealand in their opening pool match. No team had ever lifted the Webb Ellis Cup after dropping a game.
Then they watched Eddie Jones’ England dismantle the All Blacks in the semi-finals in what remains one of the most formidable performances of all time. Understandably, Matt Dawson failed to pick a single South African when he came up with a combined XV ahead of the final in his pre-match column. The Boks responded by thrashing England 32-12.
As any South African knows, a well-tarred road can produce a trickier ride than one riddled with potholes. South African rugby has developed in a country where almost nothing is straightforward, where political, social and economic pressures have made comfort feel temporary and certainty feel suspicious.
Then came the 2021 British and Irish Lions series. South Africa lost the first Test 22-17, then won the next two 27-9 and 19-16. Once again, the Boks were not required to be perfect. They were required to be better after something had gone wrong.
By 2023, the pattern had become a kind of national sporting ritual. South Africa lost to Ireland in the pool stage. They then survived France 29-28 in one of the great World Cup quarter-finals, beat England 16-15 in a semi-final in which they spent large periods looking strangely short of ideas, and edged New Zealand 12-11 in the final.
South Africa did not cruise through that tournament. They lurched through it, dragging themselves from one crisis to the next until, somehow, they were holding the trophy. This has happened too many times for it to be a coincidence.
Perhaps this is what separates these Springboks from Richie McCaw’s All Blacks. That New Zealand team was comfortable being on top. It could dominate a tournament, a season or an opponent without needing a personal insult to get it going. Between the 2011 and 2015 World Cups, McCaw’s All Blacks lost only three Tests. They made superiority feel routine.
As any South African knows, a well-tarred road can produce a trickier ride than one riddled with potholes. South African rugby has developed in a country where almost nothing is straightforward, where political, social and economic pressures have made comfort feel temporary and certainty feel suspicious. The Springboks have so tightly tethered themselves to the national psyche that they carry the memory of being dismissed, doubted and repeatedly told that their way of doing things is ugly, outdated or about to be exposed.
That does not mean South Africa needs to suffer in order to win. It means suffering has become familiar territory. And now the All Blacks have led them into it.
None of this changes the need for a proper post-mortem. South Africa were not beaten by some abstract force of destiny. They were beaten because they failed to convert pressure, lost control of the match after half-time and allowed New Zealand to punish every lapse.
The All Blacks spent prolonged periods camped on their own try line. South Africa’s scrum was superior, but the advantage produced too few points. Then Fabian Holland charged down Grant Williams, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu was held up and New Zealand’s replacement front-row steadied the scrum.
The match turned on those moments. South Africa had territorial dominance without enough attacking precision. New Zealand had fewer opportunities but made more of them. That is what must change in Cape Town.
Handré Pollard offers the calm game management the Boks lacked at Ellis Park, particularly in balancing territory and scoreboard pressure.
Thomas du Toit should give South Africa greater authority from the bench and help preserve their scrum when the match enters its decisive stages, while Lood de Jager brings more experience and control than Cobus Wiese in the second row. Handré Pollard offers the calm game management the Boks lacked at Ellis Park, particularly in balancing territory and scoreboard pressure. Alongside Cobus Reinach — who might not have the same zip as Williams but provides more nous — it is a half-back pairing built to stop the match unravelling.
The bigger attacking question concerns Damian Willemse. He needs to see more of the ball at first receiver, before the All Blacks’ defensive line has settled, especially with Pollard in the 10 jersey. Willemse’s ability to manipulate space and change the point of attack is too valuable to leave on the margins of the game. Whatever shape has been pre-planned, he has to be involved earlier and more often this weekend.
The task is now brutally simple. South Africa must win three Tests in a row to take the series. They have done that against New Zealand before, most recently in 2009, but history is not a plan. It is merely evidence the route is possible.
The All Blacks have earned the right to be favourites. They were the better team at Ellis Park and exposed flaws the Springboks must now correct. But by winning so convincingly, they have also given South Africa a clear opponent, a clear deficit and a very clear question to answer.
New Zealand have won the first Test. They may yet discover that, against these Springboks, winning first is not the same as winning last.
Your home for rugby. Download the RugbyPass app on the App Store (iOS) and Google Play (Android) now!
Follow your favourite teams, tournaments and players, and get personalised news and Match Centre notifications direct to your device.
From live rugby streams and upcoming fixtures to breaking news, in-depth analysis and live scores, RugbyPass has everything you need to stay connected to the game.
If South Africa had achieved what they appear to have achieved in rugby, without the glaringly potent whiff of cheating over the years, they may well be considered in the same category of greatness as the AB’s. However, things are not how they should be…
This is all very well and I'm sure the boks will have a massive response. But like the boks, the ABs are a team that doesn't lose back to back tests often if at all. They respond too. So if the boks win this weekend, they then have to beat the ABs response, and to win the series do it twice in a row.
The plain fact is that between these teams who punch back so hard, the first test was crucial and Rassie fluffed it with his 6-2 gamble and his chaotic response to the needed reshuffle on the field.
He's not the smartest coach. He's the biggest gambler with the biggest balls and he's scraped by in the casino on a great streak. What happens when it stops landing on red. Last weekend it was a huge choke.
And now?
Title and content of this is a wind-up (on par with B Smith who regularly gets Boks supporters riled up - while supposedly getting NZ supporters enthused). The margins in all these games are so narrow, the pre-game predictions are next to meaningless - but especially those that draw adamant conclusions as DG does here. Those encouraged by this content, will feel safer, reassured and confident heading into the next test. Wiser heads will wait until the game is played and evaluate what transpired - enjoying the game as it unfolds because reality is, the results are not guaranteed for either team.
I will call it as l see it. If the ABs take the Boks upfront on Saturday and win this spells the decline of the Boks and Rassie.
What an absolutely idiotic comment - a double WC winner, BIL series winner two in a row RC winner and suddenly two losses to by far the second beat team is the end of the road. Do you know the difference between off form and off sides?
It’s going to be so good to see New Zealand win the next one just to watch SA supporters like the one who wrote this disappear up his own (well you know what but I can’t write it) and cry their tears of frustration at the world. No doubt the referee and match officials will be the ones who get blamed because that’s the normal narrative.
What an idiotic comment - what can you expect from an Aussie?
Spot on comment.
Thanks for that. Where’s Australia languishing in the rankings?
This article is typical of the narrative coming out of SA, in thats its a myopic analysis of themselves with very little consideration to the opposition. The only view seems to be that SA blew it and only need to fix a few things and its a forgone conclusion. That degree of arrogance can really come and bite you right on the arse.
Didn’t age well did it.
Many of the stats seems to indicate South Africa blew it. However, taking nothing away from New Zealand, they played darn well under the circumstances. They looked assured and stayed in the fight till the last minute.
We absolutely hate losing to New Zealand and the scoreline hurt tremendously, but give credit to both sides. Try as they might, it wasn't the Springboks’ day - and that's a big credit to the opposition.
The Boks did blow it. Did you watch the game? Or form your opinion on the narrative out of SA alone?
You expect every article on the internet to cover all the bases? There are tons of pieces dealing exclusively with the All Blacks and how brilliant they were. Are those articles myopic? I read a news story today about AI that didn’t mention data centres. Is that myopic? Can’t have everything be about everything all the time.
To all our Rugby fans in NZ and in SA.
These 2 teams have world rugby standing in awe as they go head to head.
Totally the best in the world,sharing 7 world cups,unbelievable and totally admirable.
I reckon 90% of South Africans support the AB's against the other international teams that try to play the game.
The rugby world without SA and Nz will dwindle away into the pool of forgetfulness forever and other sports will benefit.
Thank you to all New Zealanders, your passion and love for the game is so incredible and inspiring.
Thank you to the traveling fans ,you make rugby great with your presence.
The 4 match test series couldn't have started on a better footing,with the AB's winning, it has ignited fire and international interest that will bring in much revenue.
We needed this,,, NZ and SA.
May the best team win on Saturday, much respect to the Haka.
Series player so far is Rieko Loane.
Be careful my boks ,this game breaker is awesome.
Exited to see the best teams in action again.
Great comment! I feel exactly the same. I am a massive Springbok supporter, but if the All Blacks play against any other international team, then I am supporting the All Blacks! If the AB’s manage to kick out the Springboks out of the World Cup in the Quarter Final next year (which I hope is NOT going to happen!) I will be supporting the All Blacks from then on for the rest of the tournament. The Springboks and the All Blacks are my 2 favorite teams in the world.
So much focus on Rassie, he didn't lose it, the players were on the pitch. Issue is all great sides get studied and eventually countered.
Rassie has not really changed the fundamentals of SA play or attitude, it's all very predictable and effective. His master strategy was the Bomb squad but it appears the world has caught up. He may be forced to use the backs, heaven forbid.
Check out this journo’s article for the Guardian published just before the 1st Test, written without any disclosure that he’s Sth African. Almost as if he were a ‘neutral observer’ given his academic position at an unknown UK University. Join the queue at Northfields station, Daniel, along with the other 400k emigrants. The hyperboles were dripping off the page about how the Springboks had left the All Blacks for dust and were now the standard bearer for the game, the ABs were yesteryears team. This guy represents exactly why rugby fans hate Safa rugby fans and the arrogance of their media. And yet the Safas get their knickers in a twist over Ben Smith.
Just because the ABs won a game - doesn’t make any of that untrue.
I suppose the Wallabies became favourites to win the World Cup after that game at Ellis Park.
People hate. Thanks for at least being open about why you hate Safa fans. You’re a pain in the *rse yourself.
All pre series predictions - including many from former All Blacks themselves - had the Boks winning the series. They still might. Great for the narrative that rhe ABs (deservedly) won the opener.
Also, should I state in everything I write that I’m South African. I notice you didn’t mention where you’re from in your comment.
My concern is that Rassie has lost the Plot.
Ive noticed over the years that he has been successful with certain playing tactics/ formulas/style, and now has abandoned them.
EG : at one stage there were always 2 players “ driving” together, now it’s one person driving which puts us under pressure, losing momentum, losing the ball, giving away position etc .
Then he has a selection problem. The combinations are not gelling.
A lot of players are not playing to their potential - we have the players, changes must be made.
Anyway, that’s my couch potato opion.
Agree, too much of the Tony Brown factor.
My concern is how rapidly the narrative swings wildly between jackpot and pisspot for both these teams after one weekend.
It’s quite amusing actually. After 13 wins? Now the wheels are off.
Agree he is navigating transition. He’s done it admirably but has yet to nail it. For the first time in a long time, I find myself questioning his approach. SFM wasn’t the best choice for the first test IMO, and it showed. The bomb squad had no bomb. He fluffed the bench replacements when Arendse was injured. He persisted too long with SFM at 10.
That said, he has proven to be masterful. Optimistic that he can out master Rennie, which is a tall order but makes for an awesome series.
It’s must win territory for the saffers
Big Pol’s back at ten
The ‘roids’ de Toit is lurking on the bench
The clouds are closing in
Dead by dawn will be chanted around
Can our brave Kiwi lads survive and win
Oh yes they can
I am sure you are right Daniel - all is well
If the ABs can get parity at scrum time (pretty big if) this series is over for SA
Well called Jm. The “if” is the elephant in the room. This AB team will not survive a week on week competition like the the WC with the tight forward stocks they are using now.
That's pretty doubtful, it's just damage control we can all be honest about it. Sa scrum is dominant against anyone
The boks are done!
I’m glad actually. Supporting them was getting tiring. Time to find a new hobby.
That will be the day Hammer ..just one more hit on Saturday for old times sake is it? Haha
Why?
Prior to the test, I picked the Boks for 12+ and until that scrum penalty, thought Boks were on track to win comfortably.
ABs were terrible catching the high ball, until the scrum, barely holding on and Boks were getting so much front foot ball.
But the ABs hung in there and as with test rugby these days, scorelines can quickly ramp up.
So as an AB fan, I’m hoping for a victory in Cape T, but after previous weekend feel we got away with it a bit - if the Boks gain the same amount of scrum dominance, control high ball and actually do something with all that front foot ball - yip, I’m a little concerned.
That being said, big issue for the Boks was that the Boks didn’t look like they had played together enough - so whilst I really rate Pollard, and knowing Cape Town probably suits his game, think they should have stuck with the team bar injury and just instructed to deliver.
Still if ABs can hold Boks in Scrum, get a little more over gainline with carries - ABs as shown, can or could win - fingers crossed for me!
This is true.
You hope……
Rennie his team and the ABs are no strangers to adversity backs against the wall must win test arena rugby it is why their philosophy ‘walk towards the pressure is so poignant and is built into their team culture. SA need to remember NZ is = in passion for the game as they are and why under the Rennie regime they are tight play with yes optimism calm under duress and high percentage of making good decisions under pressure at high-speed. What is not 100% certain is setpiece and aerial defense but they're working on it.
You forgot to mention the whining
Rassie was in state of a panic last Sat and the early part of the week, his selection for coming Saturday raised few questions, Kolisi with his 28 min per test on average lately, another never ending chance for Sacha, unfit Test locks in LDJ and EE and dropping of the speedy pdv.
The old brigade of over 32 y.o is another of Rassie’s gambles ,,,
I was surprised by the selections too. Especially bracketing Kolisi and bring back some more of his old guard.
Trust is important but I feel like the All Blacks have a opening against a team that has seemed impenetrable of late.
We are used to passing in the wet and the boks don’t seem likely to be able having dropped the ball so often the last two tests great conditions.
If the All Blacks can gain a small lead and force the boks into chasing it could play into their hands.
BUT, I am not counting my chickens. There is equal chance they will play on top of us as we know they can, or drag us into a grind and pummel us in the scrum and maul.
Good read. That run in the 2023 WC was legendary. A run of heart, luck, and referee 50:50s like that won’t come along again in a very long time.
Life gets tough if you lose in CT on Saturday, though. What is the message then?
But they didn’t and that’s why they have won four world cups.
“4 World Cups, 4 World Cups, something, something, back to back world champions. *Rassie is building for the World Cup*, and that's where the Boks will get judged.
*They’re not exactly picking a team that suggests they’re building for the World Cup, but understandably, needs must.
This article is mostly correct, but if SA lose on Saturday they could enter a bit of a death spiral. Rassie’s selection will be recognised as an act of desperation, and the self-confidence the team have relied upon will be shot to peaces.
It feels like SAs season is on a bit of a knife edge. They could cement their position as best in the world, or they could start to slide down the rankings. I'm not convinced that staying neck and neck with NZ is an option.
Sure this series means something to both teams and they both very much want to win but if there ever was a good time for things to go lumpy, surely a year out from the RWC would be it? I do think a SA series loss would be more detrimental to the their team than if our ABs were to lose the remaining games. ABs are building under a new coach but as we well know, Boks have been top of the pile for a while now and so it could be a bit of a confidence knock. That said, it’s a good time to see the flaws and get things back on track.
A precipice of note. The most experienced Bok team will take to the field on Saturday in a desperate attempt. Not confident at all.
It will be my first ever SA vs NZ test to attend, my first ever view of the Haka live - as for the result, I can just hope.
One fix for the win: Points per 22 entry (PP22E).
Lots of other things to tighten up on, but in the end their PP22E was below 1.0 when it is usually in the 4.0 range. Patience, power and discipline is all it takes to fix that, and the opposition don’t have much say in those things.
Unless NZ come up with a better game plan the Boks will fix the PP22E problem and win the game convincingly.
Your crystal ball is on form!
The ABs weren’t that flash and will likely improve, too. They’re not passive bystanders waiting around to see what the Boks will chuck at them for round 2.
That can only be half true. NZ knows how to score too and from anywhere. One stat missing from much of the analysis is that NZ played nowhere near the intensity they usually play. Their average passes in play this year is 263. They passed only 125 times at Ellis Park. So they won with broadly same efficiency across all the key metrics but with less than half the ball in play that they usually generate. So there is massive room for improvement for both teams.
So the Boks will somehow fix their multiple issues but the ABs have to come up with a better plan? 5 tries to 1 suggests they don’t really need a better plan but it’s obvious the Boks do!
If you eventually get stopped and turned on the gain line, it’s not a given you get regular 22 entries. In the end, the Boks couldn’t even exit their own 22 on their scrum.
Pollard ‘only’ averages 10 PTS a game (9.8) so they will still need other scores.
I don’t think the ABs will be expecting to win many more games with a penalty count of 14. I expect both sides will address discipline issues from the last game.
NZ won comfortably but its advantage south africa? weird take. Just because they have come back before does not mean they will every time-there will come a time another team gets the better of them.Especially when you look at the age profile of many south african players-a lot of players over 30.
Like what Eben did to the Kiwi tight five - jeez old man - calm down.
I dunno, think the point is that they weren’t fundamentally outplayed so could use it as motivation. They were dominating that first half, they will take that into the next test. A few less dropped balls and some better decision making around penalties and it could have been very different.
Rennie himself said the game was much tighter than the scoreboard suggests