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Simon Middleton column: Canada are in pole position to win World Cup
“Who’s going to win the 2025 Women’s Rugby World Cup?” The question I dread being asked! Why? Because after the weekend it would be very easy to say Canada. In which case I will probably be branded a traitor.
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So here is my diplomatic, but very honest answer:
If both teams play to the level they have played at this Rugby World Cup then, for me, Canada will win.
They have been the best team in the competition by some way and have played consistently at a high level. They have also continued to improve game on game, which culminated in an outstanding performance and demolition of the world champions New Zealand last Friday night in Bristol.
For me England have not played that well as a team in the competition. The forwards have been outstanding. The backs have been average. Overall the team has relied on their tried and tested set piece, the carrying power of the forwards and the mercurial skills of Ellie Kildunne and Meg Jones to get them through sticky patches.
In truth had France taken their chances in the first half last week we would probably be talking about a Canada-France final.
Having said that if both teams play to the maximum of their ability England will win. But to do this England have a big gap to close on their current form to get the best out of themselves. While Canada come into Saturday’s winner-takes-all match at the top of their game.
Either way this is not going to be the walk in the park many people expected or predicted for England. Canada have a great chance. Let’s get down to the specifics as to why.
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Canada’s first-half display against the Black Ferns is precisely what they will be looking to emulate now for the final. Those 40 minutes can now be used as a blueprint for how to get the upper hand against England.
The game they played against New Zealand is exactly the game they need to get back onto the field against the Red Roses on Saturday. The combination of tempo and physicality fosters the type of game they like to impose; unstructured, chaotic, high speed and packed with offloads. It shortens the defence up and gives them opportunities to attack the space on the edges. An area where England are vulnerable.
When I say “chaotic” or “unstructured” it doesn’t mean disjointed in Canada’s case. They are the most precise team at this World Cup. While they have an offloading game, it is always done in a controlled and accurate way. It isn’t a high-risk offloading game like France’s. That’s why they are so threatening.
They are also the fittest and most physical team in the World Cup. The pace and power they carry the ball into contact with means they are able to dominate collisions, which in turn frees up Canadian arms up to offload with momentum, control and precision. They are specialists in this type of game, and that’s exactly where a World Cup contender wants to be before a final.
Canada are not a team that rely on their maul to make something out of their lineout. They have used other options as well and are more than comfortable playing off the set piece through their backs, which, based on what we saw against France could put England under pressure.
Nonetheless, there are the “mustn’t’ do’s” for Canada. Namely, two.
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If Canada give England easy entries to their 22m and allow England to set up their lineout and maul, they will have to swim against the current. England can gain an edge is use their maul to dictate the match’s tempo and play a close-quarter physical carrying game through their forward pack.
To avoid it, Canada needs to be as disciplined as they were in the semifinal. They didn’t give any chances to the Black Ferns to go for an attacking lineout in the first half, or concede a penalty of any kind before the 60 minute mark, and they have to do the same on Saturday.
Another “mustn’t do” is loose kicking. If they kick poorly or kick directly to the likes of Ellie Kildunne or Abby Dow they will run into trouble. They can’t allow England to have a chance to counterattack. Their kicking has to be precise.
Now, looking to England and how they can win the game and earn a third World Cup title. England’s real strengths still lie in their set-piece, which allows them to set the tone of the match and their forward carrying game, which is immense at times. Canada can’t afford to be drawn into a set piece battle and need to engage England’s backs as often as possible.
England’s phase play defence is strong when they are defending between the two 15-metre lines. They have powerful players who completely understand their roles in their scheme and can tackle well. In the wider channels they are very susceptible and that is an area Canada will want to take advantage of.
There are not exactly any “don’ts” for England but there are things they just have to do better. Their connection in the wider channels while defending isn’t working at the moment. The defensive link between Ellie Kildunne on the edge of the defensive line and her wingers is a problem. The decision-making of the wingers is at times questionable – especially Jess Breach, who had a torrid time against France.
They have to improve a handful of small details to go to the next level. Specifically how their backline is operating at the moment. The backs have not fired in this competition and have not been able to capitalise on the possession afforded to them by their forwards. If they are ever going to connect, Saturday is the day to do it.
Against France, they only had a handful of good attacking moments, relied on their forwards’ power and moments of individual brilliance to take them across the finish line.
There is an aspect that can tip the scales in England’s favour though. The bench replacements. If the score is close in the last twenty minutes, the English bench could very well be the difference between defeat and victory.
Front-rowers have been England most effective attacking weapons and could be the defining factor in the final. They could be the aces in the pack.
As I am mentioning aces in the pack, I should probably mention the players who can be pivotal for their teams.
In all honesty, we don’t have to go far to single out who the main game-changers are. Two of them have been nominated for World Rugby’s Women’s 15s Player of the Year. Sophie de Goede and Meg Jones know how to change the outcome of a game and they know how to inspire their teammates.
But if you are looking for two extra flavours, then look no further than Justine Pelletier and Hannah Botterman. If Pelletier pulls another performance like she did in the semi-final, that could be a point of difference in a result. As for Botterman, her physicality and ability to be confrontational will be pivotal to England’s chances.
When it comes to each team’s headmasters, I think we are heading towards an exciting chess match between one of the most experienced coaches of the game, John Mitchell, and a true rugby genius, Kévin Rouet.
Mitchell hasn’t been forced to solve puzzles in the last few years, and Canada can be a very perilous jigsaw to solve with Rouet as its designer. Canada have been evolving non-stop since he took charge just over three years ago and has seen consistent improvement in a very tough environment. England seem lost as to what their identity is.
On one hand we have the best and most clinical team of the tournament, Canada, and on the other we have a team that can be the best in the world when they click. At the end of the day, I would back Rouet if we were in a chess match… however, John Mitchell might have a gambit ready for the final.
England still have to click. Canada have. But in a World Cup final anything can happen. Canada’s physicality has been inspirational. England’s defence has been impervious for the majority of the competition.
We can go back and forth about each team’s strengths and weaknesses, abilities and vulnerabilities. What I want to emphasise is that we are heading towards a massive clash between two teams in the biggest Women’s World Cup that has ever taken place.
I wish for fans and teams to enjoy this final week. It is always coated in special colours. In 2022 my wife asked me to write my World Cup experience in a diary. I opened it today to remind me of what went on in that final week. The main thing was that I felt relaxed and confident.
Of course, there was some anxiety mixed in, primarily due to the team’s selection and some injury concerns, but we tackled that last week in high spirits. I told the team to enjoy that last week. A lot can happen in those last seven days. You have to trust your processes and believe in who you are as a team.
A World Cup is a long journey. For me, it was all about being thankful to the staff and players for giving everything they had.
We are about to witness history unfold, and I am happy that I can watch it from the stands without any skin in the game!
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