Rugby World Cup squad analysis: Esportif Intelligence vs RugbyPass Index
The 2019 World Cup is now just days away from starting in Japan. All squads have been named and confirmed, and excitement levels are swiftly rising all across the globe.
New Zealand are reigning champions and the only side to have lifted the trophy three times, and although the All Blacks are still favourites to celebrate for the fourth time next month, the field is wide open with South Africa, England, Ireland and Wales having all put down markers of late.
Esportif, one of the world’s leading player representation companies, have published their analysis of the 31-man squads through their intelligence division and there are some interesting takeaways from their forensic look at each of the 20 sides participating in the tournament.
They have produced a ‘data score’ for each team based on number of caps, players in prime age range, number of players at the same club and number of total clubs drawn from. They also factor in head coach experience, recent form and historical World Cup win percentage.
They further include ‘squad value’ in the calculation, which is based on an internally devised assessment of salary for each of the players in the squads. For players representing countries who may not be on full-time contracts, Esportif used a figure between US $20,000 and $30,000, unless other information was available.
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The data score has Samoa with the lowest mark of 60, with Namibia and Tonga (both 63), Russia (64), Canada and the USA (both 65) just ahead of them. South American side Uruguay, who have an incredibly challenging pool, lead the way as the ‘best of the rest’ with a mark of 66, before the ‘big three’ of tier two come in with Georgia (69) and Japan (70) both sitting outside of the tier one nations, although Fiji’s score of 73 sees them tie for tenth spot with Italy.
At ninth overall comes Argentina (74), with the Six Nations pair of France and Scotland both tied on a mark of 79. There is then a three-way tie between Australia, Wales and South Africa, all of whom score 85 on Esportif’s metric. It leaves England, Ireland and New Zealand as the top three and it is Eddie Jones’ side who come out on top with a score of 90, narrowly edging ahead of the All Blacks (89). Ireland finish up in third with a mark of 86.
Those top two teams are flipped when you compare Esportif’s rankings with the RugbyPass Index, with New Zealand (89) ahead of England (87), although Ireland (85) finish third in both. South Africa (83) and Wales (78) complete the top five, before Australia (73) come in at sixth. Although the RPI predicts a larger disparity between those last three teams than Esportif, both models have the same top six teams.
Away from the data score, we have rounded up some of the other interesting takeaways from Esportif’s analysis: Only Ireland, New Zealand, England and France have picked entirely domestic-based squads, with Ireland only selecting from four sides. In contrast, Tonga’s 31-man squad is drawn together from 27 different clubs, 25 of which are not in Tonga.
Russia have the oldest squad at the competition, with an average age of 29.3, while Uruguay’s is the youngest at an average age of 25.9. Interestingly, the South American minnows still also boast the fifth most caps of any team at the competition with 1,109.
In terms of tier one nations, Ireland have the oldest squad with an average age of 27.8, while France have the youngest with an average age of 26.5. The Wallabies have the most caps at the tournament with 1,423, while Samoa are the most inexperienced squad with just 424 caps. The least experienced tier one nation is France, with Les Bleus only accounting for 807 caps.
WATCH: England’s players will bank almost triple what is on offer to their All Blacks rivals if they win the World Cup
Comments on RugbyPass
I still see nothing in Sotutus play that hes changed his upright running style that failed so many times against decent international defences like the french. Other than that… Iose? Well you have covered his limitations well. If Sititi had been playing the the season… Jacobson? Grace?…Neither shout pick me. So Ardie it is.
1 Go to commentsThere isn’t one element you mentioned there that every top class or successful team gets up to. The great All blacks sides used to play on the ‘fringes or edge’ but it was essentially saying they were doing something illegal or borderline to gain dominance. The fine margins at the top are minute between the top sides. La Rochelle, the crusaders, Saracens, Toulon etc etc…..have all been accused. Get over it, the comment comes across as salty and naive. Northampton as well as they played to get back into the match were thoroughly beaten and controlled for 60 minutes and Leinster have only themselves to blame for kicking it away and hence losing control of the match and being nearly the architects of their own downfall.
2 Go to commentsThere is some talent coming thru thats for sure. The 10 looks special to me. Rico Simpson is a name to look for in the future.
1 Go to commentsI think this quiet honestly is just an innocent misunderstanding by someone who is pig sh*t stupid. Eben is a fine player but by christ, if he can’t understand or get what the Irish players were trying to say to him after the match…..well i hope he has someone looking after his finances, career and is reading the fine print for him, cause life after rugby may be quite difficult for the vacuous echo chamber.
21 Go to commentsIt could be Doris' day!
3 Go to commentsThe whole thing has blown up because Eben’s words have clearly struck a nerve in Ireland. Otherwise they would just laugh it off. I think some former Irish players, commentators and some Irish fans know deep down this Ireland team started to believe its own press and that a certain amount of arrogance had started to creep in during the World Cup. The topic was actually brought up by Irish pundits on Off the Ball recently. It’s fine to be arrogant if you can back it up. Ireland didn’t.
21 Go to comments‘The Irish are good people'. Why is Goode praising a people who hate his own? Wet wipe.
21 Go to commentsLa mejor final que se puede ver en el emisferio norte.
1 Go to commentsA lot of cope from south africans in the comments. Etzebeth is a liar and a hypocrite; you don’t have to defend him!
21 Go to commentsHe got big and really slow for a flyhalf…not sure he’s relevant in a bok conversation anymore
4 Go to commentsBest tourney team vs best team in the regular season for 3 games in RSA - talk is cheap, let’s see what’s what on the tour
21 Go to commentsOne overlooked statistic from their 2016 winning season is the Huricanes are still the only team in Super rugby history not to concede a try during the playoff rounds.
4 Go to commentsThanks for the article, Nick. The Nienaber blitz D does ask a lot of its scrumhalf. I have been watching JGP on D and he often looks like he has mastered what Nienaber asks for better than Faf de Klerk and Cobus Reinach! 🤣 Impressive season by JGP if I must make an understatement.
22 Go to commentsOkay last one. I promise. I think it’s despicable for Andy Goode to suggest that Eben can’t count to 12. To be fair he only had to count to 8 - the number of Irishmen who DIDN’T say that. Less the 3 kiwis of course. 23 - 12 - 3 = 8. See Joe. I can do maffs.
21 Go to commentsCheers, Nick! How do you see the Reds’ Jock Campbell’s play this year? Not as strong a carrier as Andrew Kellaway or Tom Wright, but does avoid errors. Do you see Joe Schmidt as wanting safety first at 15 or a try-assisting counterattacker?
91 Go to commentsI’m sure this was all just a big misunderstanding. Irishmen and Afrikaaners conversing in a noisey stadium. Not easy to get the right messages across. A minefield.
21 Go to commentsSay what you will about Andy Goode. But he is right about one thing… I’m not sure what that one thing is exactly… but I’m willing to hear him out.
21 Go to commentsAnother article to bait and trigger Irish fans. This must stop.
21 Go to commentsHi Nick. Thanks for your +++ ongoing analysis. Re Vunivalu, He’s been benched recently and it will be interesting to see what Kiss does with him as we enter the backend of SRP. I’m still not sold.
91 Go to commentsIn the fine tradition of Irish rugby, Leinster cheat well and for some reason only known to whoever referees them, they are allowed to get away with it every single game. If teams have not got the physicality up front to stop them getting the ball, they will win every single game. They take out players beyond the ruck and often hold them on the ground. Those that are beyond the ruck and therefore offside, hover there to cause distraction but also to join the next ruck from the side thereby stopping the jackal. The lineout prior to the second try on Saturday. 3 Leinster players left the lineout before the ball was thrown and were driving the maul as soon as the player hit the ground and thereby getting that valuable momentum. They scrummage illegally, with the looshead turning in to stop the opposing tighthead from pushing straight and making it uncomfortable for the hooker. The tighthead takes a step and tries to get his opposite loosehead to drop the bind. Flankers often ‘move up’ and actually bind on the prop and not remain bound to the second row. It does cause chaos and is done quickly and efficiently so that referees are blinded by the illegal tactics. I am surprised opposition coaches when they meet referees before games don’t mention it. I am also surprised that they do not go to the referees group and ask them to look at the tactics used and referee them properly. If they are the better team and win, fair play but a lot of their momentum is gained illegally and therefore it is not a level playing field.
2 Go to comments