Rugby World Cup Odds - One Year Out
The 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan is officially under one year away, and while it’s still a while out the bookmakers have been kept busy.
As the pinnacle of international rugby approaches, we decided to see how the odds are shaping up. Whether you’re looking to take a punt on a longshot or get some reassurance of your nation’s chances, we have you covered.
Tier One: Favourites
New Zealand
New Zealand’s All Blacks are the clear favourites, paying $1.90 at the TAB for a tournament win. They are listed as 11/10 favourites by UK services Unibet and William Hill, and are at 6/5 odds with Skybet.
Despite a shock home loss to South Africa in the Rugby Championship, it’s hard to overlook the fact that New Zealand have won the last two World Cups and are the only country to have won three. They’re also ranked first in the world.
Ireland
Ireland have seen a massive resurgence in the last couple of years, rising up the rankings to second in the world. Their first victory over the All Blacks in 2016, a record victory over South Africa in 2017 and a Six Nations Grand Slam in 2018 have given Irish fans plenty of confidence in their side heading into the World Cup.
Ireland are paying $5.50 at the TAB and listed at 5/1, 4/1 and 9/2 with Unibet, William Hill and Skybet respectively.
Joe Schmidt’s men will have history against them in Japan. They have never advanced past the quarter finals of a World Cup and will likely have to play either New Zealand or South Africa in next year’s iteration.
England
Despite a disastrous Six Nations and a series loss against South Africa in 2018, Eddie Jones’ men are still right up there in terms of World Cup favourites.
Paying $8 at the TAB and listed at either 6/1 or 7/1, England have the third best odds to take home the William Webb Ellis Cup. Their chances will become clearer – for better or worse – as we enter the infancy of the John Mitchell experience with England.
After a dream run with Eddie Jones in 2016 and 2017, it’s possible that this England group peaked at the wrong time. At the last World Cup – which they hosted – they failed to make it out of their pool, and with Argentina and France joining them next year it won’t be a walk in the park.
Tier Two: Close, but no cigar
Australia and South Africa
Australia and South Africa are inseparable at the TAB, both listed at $8 for a World Cup win. With English bookmakers things get a little tricky. Unibet have Australia at 15/2 and Skybet have Australia at 8/1, while William Hill have South Africa at 8/1 and Australia at 12/1.
Of the two, it would appear as if South Africa have the form advantage after defeating the All Blacks in Wellington, but they went down to Australia just one week earlier. Australia have had their own ups and downs, beating South Africa before going down to Argentina at home.
Both nations have won a pair of World Cups, and Australia appeared in the last final. South Africa have recently shot up to fifth in the world while Australia have slumped to an all-time worst of seventh.
Tier Three: Middle of the pack
Wales and France
Wales and France are paying $18 with the TAB and hover between 18/1 and 22/1 elsewhere. The only outlier is William Hill, who have Wales at 12/1.
France have a history of relative World Cup success. Despite never winning the Cup, they have made three appearances in the final – a northern hemisphere record shared with England. Their value hit a snag after they notched two Six Nations wins and were outscored 127- 38 in their three-game series against New Zealand earlier this year.
Wales are good value as they are currently ranked third in the world. They have won their last five matches and lost just twice during the Six Nations. Current head coach Warren Gatland will be hoping for one last effort from his men before he steps down after the World Cup.
Scotland and Argentina
Rounding out the real contenders are Scotland and Argentina who come in at $31 and $41 respectively. Elsewhere they are generally listed between 25/1 and 33/1. Argentina are good value at 40/1 with William Hill.
Mario Ledesma’s Argentina have found a rich vein of form after a tumultuous run under Daniel Hourcade. During this year’s Rugby Championship they have knocked off South Africa and beaten Australia on the Gold Coast. They also tested the All Blacks in Nelson before falling off in the final quarter.
They have a stronger World Cup pedigree than Scotland, finishing third in 2007 and reaching the semi-finals in 2015. They were eliminated by New Zealand in the quarterfinals of the 2015 competition. Scotland are yet to make it past the quarterfinal stage of the competition. Argentina’s odds may have taken a hit because of their pool, where they will have to beat out either England or France to advance.
Scotland should be a shoo-in for a quarterfinal berth with Ireland their only real threat in the pool, but will likely meet South Africa or New Zealand next should they advance.
Tier Four: The longshots
Japan and Fiji
Hosts Japan and Island nation Fiji are both listed at $251 with the TAB and range between 100/1 and 500/1 elsewhere.
Japan have home advantage and are capable of shocking, evidenced by their stunning upset victory over South Africa in the 2015 iteration of the competition.
Fiji are two-time quarterfinalists and will likely feature a star-studded backline and be led by reigning European Player of the Year Leone Nakarawa. They are currently ranked tenth in the world, the highest standing in their history.
Samoa, Tonga and Italy
Samoa haven’t made the quarterfinals since 1999 and finished fourth in their pool in 2015. Tonga and Italy are yet to make it past the pool stages, though Italy have the distinction of the most pool wins without a quarterfinal appearance.
Georgia, Uruguay, Russia, USA, Namibia, Repechage Team
With odds ranging from 1000/1 to 5000/1, these sides don’t have much of a shot at winning, let alone making it out of the pool. Most of these sides will be happy to escape with a few competition points.
Georgia have the best shot at making some noise, but their tough pool featuring Australia, Wales and Fiji won’t make things any easier.
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Comments on RugbyPass
I think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to commentsWe had during the week twilight footy, twilight cricket, tw golf plus there was the athletics club. Then the weekend was rugby 15s plus the net ball, really busy club scene back then but so much has changed and rugby has suffered. And it was all about changing lifestyles.
6 Go to commentsIn the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getting to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
6 Go to commentsROG’s contract is until 2027. The conversation about a successor to Galthie after RWC 2027 may be starting now. We can infer that Galthie’s reign stops then. He is throwing the Irish Coaching Job angle in because he is Irish. The next Irish coach MUST be Leo Cullen. As well as being the best coach available, coaching the vast majority of Irish Internationals week in week out, he has shown incredible skill at recruiting the best coaching staff for the job in hand. That was a failing in France. Cullen is a shrewd guy and if there is a need for foreign coaches underneath him he won’t hesitate. Rightly so. Ireland does need to start to bring Irish coaches through. Not just at the professional level but we need to train coaches to man new pathways for developing kids from schools/clubs up through the divisions.
7 Go to commentsNo Islam says it must rule where it stands Thus it is to be deleted from this planet Earth
18 Go to commentsThis team probably does not beat the ABs sadly Not sure if BPA will be available given his signing for Force but has to enter consideration. Very strong possibility of getting schooled by the AB props. Advantage AB. Rodda/Skelton would be a tasty locking combination - would love to see how they get on. Advantage Wallabies. Backrow a risk of getting out hustled and outmuscled by ABs. Will be interesting to see if the Blues feast on the Reds this weekend the way they did the Brumbies we are in big trouble at the breakdown. Great energy, running and defence but goalkicking/general kicking/passing quality in the halves bothers me enormously. SA may have won the World Cup for a lot of the tournament without a recognised goalkicker but Pollard in the final made a difference IMO. Injuries and retirements leave AB stocks a bit lighter but still stronger. 12 and 13 ABs shade it (Barret > Paisami, Ione = Ikitau, arguably) Interesting clash of styles on the wings - Corey Toole running around Caleb Clark and Caleb running over the top of Toole. Reece vs Koro probably the reverse. Pretty even IMO. 15s Kelleway = Love See advantage to ABs man for man, but we are not obviously getting slaughtered anywhere which makes a nice change. Think talent wise we are pretty even and if our cohesion and teamwork is better than the ABs then its just about doable.
11 Go to commentsCompletely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
6 Go to comments1.97m and 105Kg? Proportionately, probably skinnier than me at 1.82 and 82kilos. He won’t survive against the big guys at that weight.
55 Go to commentsThe value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
7 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
11 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
61 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
11 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
61 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
7 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
61 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
55 Go to comments