Rugby World Cup Odds - One Year Out
The 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan is officially under one year away, and while it’s still a while out the bookmakers have been kept busy.
As the pinnacle of international rugby approaches, we decided to see how the odds are shaping up. Whether you’re looking to take a punt on a longshot or get some reassurance of your nation’s chances, we have you covered.
Tier One: Favourites
New Zealand
New Zealand’s All Blacks are the clear favourites, paying $1.90 at the TAB for a tournament win. They are listed as 11/10 favourites by UK services Unibet and William Hill, and are at 6/5 odds with Skybet.
Despite a shock home loss to South Africa in the Rugby Championship, it’s hard to overlook the fact that New Zealand have won the last two World Cups and are the only country to have won three. They’re also ranked first in the world.
Ireland
Ireland have seen a massive resurgence in the last couple of years, rising up the rankings to second in the world. Their first victory over the All Blacks in 2016, a record victory over South Africa in 2017 and a Six Nations Grand Slam in 2018 have given Irish fans plenty of confidence in their side heading into the World Cup.
Ireland are paying $5.50 at the TAB and listed at 5/1, 4/1 and 9/2 with Unibet, William Hill and Skybet respectively.
Joe Schmidt’s men will have history against them in Japan. They have never advanced past the quarter finals of a World Cup and will likely have to play either New Zealand or South Africa in next year’s iteration.
England
Despite a disastrous Six Nations and a series loss against South Africa in 2018, Eddie Jones’ men are still right up there in terms of World Cup favourites.
Paying $8 at the TAB and listed at either 6/1 or 7/1, England have the third best odds to take home the William Webb Ellis Cup. Their chances will become clearer – for better or worse – as we enter the infancy of the John Mitchell experience with England.
After a dream run with Eddie Jones in 2016 and 2017, it’s possible that this England group peaked at the wrong time. At the last World Cup – which they hosted – they failed to make it out of their pool, and with Argentina and France joining them next year it won’t be a walk in the park.
Tier Two: Close, but no cigar
Australia and South Africa
Australia and South Africa are inseparable at the TAB, both listed at $8 for a World Cup win. With English bookmakers things get a little tricky. Unibet have Australia at 15/2 and Skybet have Australia at 8/1, while William Hill have South Africa at 8/1 and Australia at 12/1.
Of the two, it would appear as if South Africa have the form advantage after defeating the All Blacks in Wellington, but they went down to Australia just one week earlier. Australia have had their own ups and downs, beating South Africa before going down to Argentina at home.
Both nations have won a pair of World Cups, and Australia appeared in the last final. South Africa have recently shot up to fifth in the world while Australia have slumped to an all-time worst of seventh.
Tier Three: Middle of the pack
Wales and France
Wales and France are paying $18 with the TAB and hover between 18/1 and 22/1 elsewhere. The only outlier is William Hill, who have Wales at 12/1.
France have a history of relative World Cup success. Despite never winning the Cup, they have made three appearances in the final – a northern hemisphere record shared with England. Their value hit a snag after they notched two Six Nations wins and were outscored 127- 38 in their three-game series against New Zealand earlier this year.
Wales are good value as they are currently ranked third in the world. They have won their last five matches and lost just twice during the Six Nations. Current head coach Warren Gatland will be hoping for one last effort from his men before he steps down after the World Cup.
Scotland and Argentina
Rounding out the real contenders are Scotland and Argentina who come in at $31 and $41 respectively. Elsewhere they are generally listed between 25/1 and 33/1. Argentina are good value at 40/1 with William Hill.
Mario Ledesma’s Argentina have found a rich vein of form after a tumultuous run under Daniel Hourcade. During this year’s Rugby Championship they have knocked off South Africa and beaten Australia on the Gold Coast. They also tested the All Blacks in Nelson before falling off in the final quarter.
They have a stronger World Cup pedigree than Scotland, finishing third in 2007 and reaching the semi-finals in 2015. They were eliminated by New Zealand in the quarterfinals of the 2015 competition. Scotland are yet to make it past the quarterfinal stage of the competition. Argentina’s odds may have taken a hit because of their pool, where they will have to beat out either England or France to advance.
Scotland should be a shoo-in for a quarterfinal berth with Ireland their only real threat in the pool, but will likely meet South Africa or New Zealand next should they advance.
Tier Four: The longshots
Japan and Fiji
Hosts Japan and Island nation Fiji are both listed at $251 with the TAB and range between 100/1 and 500/1 elsewhere.
Japan have home advantage and are capable of shocking, evidenced by their stunning upset victory over South Africa in the 2015 iteration of the competition.
Fiji are two-time quarterfinalists and will likely feature a star-studded backline and be led by reigning European Player of the Year Leone Nakarawa. They are currently ranked tenth in the world, the highest standing in their history.
Samoa, Tonga and Italy
Samoa haven’t made the quarterfinals since 1999 and finished fourth in their pool in 2015. Tonga and Italy are yet to make it past the pool stages, though Italy have the distinction of the most pool wins without a quarterfinal appearance.
Georgia, Uruguay, Russia, USA, Namibia, Repechage Team
With odds ranging from 1000/1 to 5000/1, these sides don’t have much of a shot at winning, let alone making it out of the pool. Most of these sides will be happy to escape with a few competition points.
Georgia have the best shot at making some noise, but their tough pool featuring Australia, Wales and Fiji won’t make things any easier.
In other news:
Comments on RugbyPass
James Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
3 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
1 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
3 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to commentsFinn Russell logic: “World” = 4 countries. Ireland may be at or near the top. FR’s bigger concern should be he and his fellow Scots (incl. the Bloemfontein ones) sliding back down to below top 10
42 Go to commentsMind games have begun. Ireland learned their lesson after saying they could beat England with 13 players or whatever. Still, if they win at Loftus, that would be impressive - final frontier etc.
58 Go to comments$950k for a Prop that isn’t fit enough to play 10 mins of rugby? Surely there is someone better to replace Big Mike with
3 Go to commentsFour Kiwis in that backline. A solid statement on the lack of invention, risk-taking and joy in the NH game; game of attrition and head- banging tedium. Longterm medical problems aplenty in the future!
3 Go to commentsGood article, I learnt quite a lot. A big sliding door moment was in the mid 00s when they rejected Steve Anderson's long term transformation and he wrote Ireland's strategy instead.
2 Go to commentsHi Dr Nick! I'm worried that I've started to enjoy watching England and have actually wanted them to win their last two games. What would you prescribe? On a more serious note, I've noticed that the standard of play in March is often better than early February. Do you think this is because of the weather or because the players have been together for longer?
13 Go to commentsMy question in all this brett is who is going to wear the consequences of these actions? Surely just getting the sack isn’t sufficient? A teenager working the till at woolies would probably get taken to court if they took $20 out of the till. You mean to tell me that someone can spend $2.6 million and get away with it? Where was it spent? What companies/people were the beneficiaries etc? How is it just being talked about as an ‘oopsie’ and we all just move on and not a matter of the court for gross negligence, fraud, take your pick…
18 Go to commentslove Manu too but England have relied on him coming back from injury for far too long and not sorted the position with someone else long term . It will be a blessing he has gone . Huge shame he was so injury prone . God speed Manu .
3 Go to commentsI agree with Ben Smith about Brett Cameron. The No. 6 position has to be a monster and a genuine lineout option, like Ollivon, Lawes (now Chessum), Du Toit, etc. The only player who fits that bill right now is Scott Barrett. A fit and fizzing Tuipolotu together with one of the young towers, Sam Darry or Josh Lord, would give Razor the freedom to play Barret at 6.
16 Go to commentsOutstanding article, Graham. Agree with all of it. And enjoy the style of writing too (particularly Grand Slap!).
3 Go to commentsI wouldn't pay a cent for that loafer. He just stands around, waiting for play to come his way. He won't make the Wallabies.
3 Go to commentsGood bit of te reo maori Nic. Or is that Niko or Nikora? On the theme of trees the Oaks v Totara. Game plan would be key. I have one but it would cost you.
13 Go to comments> Shaun Edwards’ You should not have to score 30 points to win a game, as exciting as it is. This statement was surprising to me. It is nonsensical .I guess it is a defence coach speaking. But head coach, defence and attacking coaches all work together. They are inseparable. You score more than the opposition to win. It only needs to be one score. You score whatever the game demands, whatever the opposition demand. You defend whatever it takes. The attack coach needs to be able to clock up 30pts if need be.
13 Go to commentsWho’d have thought, not having Farrell & Youngs kicking the ball at every possible opportunity and playing flat and allowing your centres to run and pass would pay off? No one could possibly have seen this coming. FML. It took a LONG time coming but at least that time has finally come. England need to find a backup to Lawrence. Freeman is the best candidate for me, I see no reason why he can't play 12. He's big, strong, fast and has great hands.
13 Go to commentsLove Manu but he's not the player he was and I imagine Bayonne have paid too much money for him.
3 Go to commentsNew Zealand have not beaten England since 2018 and even that was a pretty close shave.
1 Go to comments