Rugby superpower still at risk of dropping out of top six World Cup seeding

The latest round of Quilter Nations Series matches was a fairly conclusive one in terms of settling some of the outstanding issues ahead of the Rugby World Cup 2027 draw, with five of the top six ranked teams now locked into Band 1 and Wales guaranteed their place in Band 2.

South Africa, New Zealand, England and Ireland were already assured of their place in Band 1 before the weekend and they have since been joined by Argentina, who are safely in the top six following their incredible comeback victory against shell-shocked Scotland. They can’t drop out even if they are hammered by England next weekend.

Scotland’s 33-24 defeat at home to Los Pumas has officially ended any hopes Gregor Townsend’s team had of breaking into the top six and Fiji have also dropped out of the race after losing 34-21 to France in Paris.

France, however, did not pick up enough points for that win to be absolutely certain of their place amongst the world’s elite when the draw takes place in Sydney on 3 December.

It may seem incredible to think – and it would still take a massive upturn in the jaded Wallabies’ fortunes – but the 2027 tournament hosts will take the top six spot off Les Bleus if they go to Paris and win by 16 points or more.

Australia’s results have hit a downward spiral, with just one win in their last seven matches, and they appear to be a team desperate to get home. However, Joe Schmidt still has a chance to finish his rollercoaster reign as head coach on a high note, and also condemn to France to an unthinkable fate.

The Wallabies have won by 16 points or more away to France three times before, in 1989, 1993 and 2010, when they stormed to a 59-16 victory.

A repeat performance on Saturday evening would increase their rating by 2.86 points to 84.45, while reducing France’s rating to 84.32 and with no Tests remaining to claw back the difference.

Wales’ last-gasp 24-23 win over Japan means that it’s a straight shootout between Georgia and Japan as to who joins them Australia/France, Fiji, Scotland and Italy in Band 2.

Meanwhile, Tonga will move into Band 3 if Samoa lose to Belgium in the Final Qualification Tournament on Tuesday and fail to qualify for RWC 2027.

Tonga won’t drop any points against Scotland this Sunday, and neither of the teams immediately below them, Portugal and Romania, can make up enough ground to overtake them.

Updated World Rugby Rankings – Top 25

1 South Africa 93.06 (no change)
2. New Zealand 90.33 (-1.03)
3. England 89.09 (+1.03)
4. Ireland 88.85 (no change)
5. France 87.07 (+0.12)
6. Argentina 85.30 (+0.99)
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7. Australia 81.69 (no change)
8. Fiji 81.03 (-0.12)
9. Scotland 80.22 (-0.99)
10. Italy 78.98 (no change)
11. Georgia 74.69 (no change)
12. Wales 74.23 (+0.67)
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13. Japan 72.58 (-0.67)
14. Spain 69.12 (no change)
15. Uruguay 68.52 (no change)
16. USA 68.26 (+0.86)
17. Samoa* 66.94 (no change)
18. Chile 66.72 (no change)
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19. Tonga 66.66 (no change)
20. Portugal 64.89 (+0.37)
21. Romania 62.16 (-0.86)
22. Belgium 61.81 (+0.03)*
23. Hong Kong China 59.61 (-0.37)
24. Canada 58.85 (no change)
25. Zimbabwe 58.80 (no change)