The trees are bare and your breath freezes in wreaths around them, as if in sympathy. Snowflakes as big as crackers from a Chinese takeaway are beginning to fall all around. The grip of winter is approaching, and right now its icy fingers are winding around the throats of Les Bleus and the Wallabies.
France and Australia will meet in the last round proper of the Quilter Nations Series, and a deflating defeat for either will sound the death knell on what appeared to be a 2025 full of growth and international potential. Fabien Galthie’s side were riding the crest of a wave after dominating the champions of the previous two years in the penultimate round of the Six Nations, scoring 42 points and five tries to rout Ireland in Dublin.
Joe Schmidt’s charges were on a high after scoring six tries to storm the stronghold of Ellis Park in Johannesburg, upset the world champions and fire the first meaningful shots of the Rugby Championship. The red cockerel and the wallaby were kings for a day, but the tale has been very different since.
Australia have won one of their past seven games [against Japan] and France have lost four of their past five. It has been a sharp snapshot of lost momentum, and if you’re not moving forward, you will most certainly be falling back.
The common factor in the travails of both nations is player fatigue. Les Bleus lost impetus on their July tour of New Zealand, where the political sensitivity of the FFR/ LNR seesaw demanded a squad full of ‘B’ or even ‘C’ team players be selected. As I suggested in my November preview, Australia have suffered from the lack of depth in key positions across a protracted 15-game international season.
And as Schmidt added after the 46-19 loss to Ireland last weekend, “We don’t have massive strength in depth yet. There were 19 debutants last year in an effort to try to build a broader base of international players, but the accumulation of experience through that broader group is still in its genesis.”
The pressure on key individuals within Schmidt’s squad has become intolerable as the minutes and the number of games played racks up. From the beginning of the November tour in 2024 to the end of Saturday’s Dublin defeat, a selection of those stats reads as follows.
Galthie himself referenced the 2,000-minute, 25-game red line for selection to France’s July tour squad, while one of the key stipulations of the new Professional Game Partnership agreement in the Prem in England is player involvements should be reduced to 30 games per season. ‘Involvement’ means ‘any time [at all] spent on the field’. An iceberg of physical and mental preparation belies even an 80th-minute substitution.
The Bath University study which underpinned the new PGP guidelines found 31 or more match involvements resulted in a significantly higher injury rate in the following season. Whether you lean towards France or England, most of the high-profile Australian players on that list are already stepping over the 25-game limit, and almost all of them have played more than 2,000 minutes.
The loss of momentum has a profound impact on teams of all kinds, inside and outside the world of rugby, and it is probably better to never have had it at all than lose it when you do. Take the peculiar case of the Australian lineout, usually run by Frost.
The peak performance of the Wallaby lineout occurred during the Lions series, even with a non-jumping second row [Will Skelton] starting in two of the three matches. Australia won 90% of their own ball and pinched more than they gave up. Since then, the lineout has begun to spring a few leaks, and proportionally it is losing more of its own throws while stealing fewer of the opponent’s than at any point in the season.
Now let’s look at Frost’s personal involvements at the lineout.
Frost was a king in the lineout during the Lions series, winning no fewer than 27 in three matches, and he would have made anyone’s combined team of the series. By the time the November tour arrived his production had slowed to a trickle, even though the Wallaby lineout effort was still going gangbusters in the games against England and Italy.
Against Ireland it finally collapsed with the skyscraper Brumby felled, and Jeremy Williams calling the shots instead. Australia lost six lineouts, five of them in critical situations in or around the 22m zone when they were poised to make a score. Three of the losses came via overthrows, which can look bad for the hooker but are more typically the result of a miscommunication between thrower and lineout skipper.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 20, 2025
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 20, 2025
Schmidt commented on the second of those two misfires in the aftermath: “[We were] in the game for the first 60 minutes and we had a lineout just down here in the corner. If we get something out of that, we’re within a score with 20 to go and we’re right in the game.”
Both throws are timing jumps at the middle/tail of the line to Williams, and there is no Irish aerial counter to provide interference on either. The two misses represent a simple lack of coordination between thrower [Matt Faessler] and receiver [Williams]. That is what happens when you do not have the depth of personnel to drop one key player [Frost] and replace him seamlessly with another. If the Springboks lose Lood de Jager, they can just slot in Ruan Nortje or Franco Mostert or even Pieter-Steph du Toit to replace him and the lineout machine keeps purring, but for Australia it is not so easy.
The other three losses were essentially replays of the same lineout scenario.
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 20, 2025
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 20, 2025
— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) November 20, 2025
In the first of the two examples, there is no attempt made to decoy Ireland’s strongest and most athletic pilferer [number six Ryan Baird] away from the intended target, so the lithe Leinsterman and his lifting pod are free to mirror the actions of Williams at the front of the line.
In the second and third clips the Wallabies have a glaring ‘tell’: the ‘+1’ or insert is positioned level with the intended receiver – Fraser McReight at the front in the first instance and Bobby Valetini in the middle in the second. In both cases Williams is choosing to take on Baird one-on-one without looking to decoy him away from the target area, and that means easy pickings for the Dubliner. The Wallabies might as well have sent him a telegram before the throw was ever made.
To cap it all, when Frost wearily dragged himself on to the field one more time to secure possession in the last quarter of an hour, only five minutes had elapsed before he was off again – sent to the naughty chair for a high tackle following Caelan Doris’ crucial try in the 70th minute. That was the final ironic twist in the tale of Australia’s fatigue overload, the story of their 2025 season.
Frost will once again be pulling on the green and gold jersey in the final match of an overlong season at the Stade de France this weekend. It will be his 32nd game in the past 13 calendar months and everything in the PGP and Galthie playbooks will be crying out against it.
Frost is red-lining but the Wallaby lineout only functions when he is calling it. As he has inevitably begun to slow down the lineout stats have declined with him. He was aerial royalty in July, schmoozing easily with the very best the British and Irish Lions had to offer. Now he is in rags, begging for a rest in the corner of the town square.
France and Australia have lost all the momentum they built earlier in the year due to fatigue. As the American activist and writer Shaun King once observed, that priceless commodity is indispensable, within the world of rugby and without: “People with momentum can get so much done. Momentum is easy to lose and almost impossible to fake.”
Didn’t see this till just now. A little concerned that Frosts fatigue may impact on next season? Is there science behind that or will some downtime help him recharge? Cannot work out why swain and lsl were on the plane. Swain could have been another lineout caller! Seems like Parling and Cron had quite a bit of impact
Wd agree that the loss of Cronno and Geoff P is also huge…
But Joe won’t rotate Frost out and he won’t rotate LSL in. LAstnigh Aussie were good in the first half but faded badly in the second.
Go figure.
The lineout woes were easy fodder for an analyst to pinpoint an area where it all fell apart last week.
The Wallabies passing when trying to attack was not up to standard, so as much as I don't like the narrow attack, I can see why Joe has resorted to it.
It’s high praise but JGP's passing was Aaron Smith like.
Although it is a typical Joe attack, I think it is also a sensible first plank in Aussie’s reconstruction plan. As we can see they do not have the 10’s change the point of attack consistently, tho Carter may change that in time.
“The trees are bare and your breath freezes in wreaths around them, as if in sympathy. Snowflakes as big as crackers from a Chinese takeaway are beginning to fall all around. The grip of winter is approaching, and right now its icy fingers are winding around the throats of Les Bleus and the Wallabies.”……….Frost…..“Now he is in rags, begging for a rest in the corner of the town square.”
Great words, Nic. And our man Frost so aptly named. Like HH, I have not had time to properly read the article…off just now to make reindeer ! (Those ones made ot of wood and sticks).
Back later !
Forgot about the Frost pun Miz! But yes, bluddy cold up here this week. We were sitting indoors preparing to go out and do some work in the fields and our breath was freezing!
Is Matt Phillips a caller? I remember him being good in the lineout and getting the odd steal.
Yep Matt P. could call, I think he did it in Dave Rennie’s time in charge of the WB. So can LSL.
But it does take time to build an undertsanding with the thrower and lifters etc.
I’ll read the article shortly. I just wanted to be the first to comment.
I’d be interested to know how all the top tier teams are placed in terms of player minutes this season. Or rather as at now.
NZ looked pretty tired last week too. Although I believe they had a bug rip through the team.
The Boks rested key players for the Italy test to be up for tomorrow’s Ireland game. Hope it pays off. Ireland looked freshish last week. But the boks conditioning looked peak against France.
I feel for Australia. They really have a lack of depth at this point. France don’t really have much of an excuse with the depth they should have. I suspect they’ll hammer the Aussies.
My NZ friend advised me that a bug did rip through the team prior to last Saturday's game. It was quite minor in most cases just a couple of days of diarrhoea but of course that can induce fatigue in players.
Maybe that might account for some of the ABs looking very tired by the end of the test.
I have just finished watching the Wallabies lose to France but I felt that this was a far better performance than the matches against Ireland and England.
Ikitau looked very good and it was a better performance by the pack with Bell leading the way.
I will look at a replay later in the day to make some more measured observations.
Now that would be a big article. I do recall looking at Finn Russell topping 3000 minutes by the end of the Lions tour, and he’s already playing again.. Not sure thsi situation is sustainable, and Lions players always need to be very caredully nursed the season after.
France were under pressure v Fiji second half and might even have lost that game, do Aussie have one big game left in their locker?
Ireland gave Australia 5 lineouts in the red zone which Australia squandered. Obviously, that alone would be more than fatal against SA. Even if its close going into the last 20-10 minutes…..the mismatch Rassie/Felix have created in that time zone against fatiguing opponents must tell. With Monsters scoring maul tries (see v France) and/or magicians like Sasha/Williams creating try scoring space in the red zone (see also France).
Ireland’s attitude must be underdog….ubiquitous focus on downing the best team around possibly, the best team ever and potentially the best team relative to their peers ever. Be grateful for any chances and accept willingly etc.
Bit of a buzz around Dublin already!
I think a proper close test but with SA pulling away to a two score win due to the mismatches mentioned earlier.
Not ANOTHER NZ ‘bug.’
They must be the sickliest team in rugby history.
What was this one - Ebola?
Excellent choice.