Rassie Erasmus: 'I think we'll find a very desperate New Zealand team'

Yeah South Africa sounds very desperate to have the seasons changed. I’m really surprised that SA weather is so good, I expected more rugby cancelations.

What rubbish.

PB have you analysed how many of these players actually played a top five test last year? By my reckoning 80%+ of the forwards in those tests were the same players. I have not looked closely but the number will likely be similar for the backs. So you might have player depth, but they are not playing in the big games. Indeed many if them are unknown on the international scene. So this incredible depth might be better described as unproven.

lock: Reinhardt Ludwig (will need to step up a bit though, but the talent is there)

center: Jurenzo Julius (a bit of a surprise bag, I admit)

both would certainly be starters in any test team minus ABs, FRA, ENG and maybe IRE, ARG

Will be good to see Peed and I thought Bergh showed some promise too, SA’s weak point for me.

Riley Norton

Tough to answer your question without knowing who will coach and whether he will look to build on Razor’s structures and if so how much. If he goes full all of field ballistic - which would not surprise me for either Rennie or Joseph - then we might win the first test. But it is just not sustainable over a month as the Lions know from their various tours over the years. I also think we woūd struggle for the balance of the tour as SA simply overpowers the set piece and defensive line. However, if the ABs can build on Razor’s structured power game by adding more intensity to the defence, together with more effective multiphase and counter attack (huge but odd weaknesses for ABs last year) that would be much more sustainable and a more winnable game plan over all three tests. It will need all the top forwards to stay injury free but if so, 2-1 to ABs not unrealistic.

SF when you say rotation what do you mean. Rassie basically rotated through the same forwards for the big games against AB, Ireland and France?

Kiwi take? Razors rooting around will stand NZ in good stead to do to SA what NZ did to Ireland at last WC. Surely you would expect SA to win at home. To believe anything else is silly isnt it?

Whats our SA mates take on this

3rd is the last, the 4th will be some weeks after?

Think they will be very rusty from the last time it was attempted 30 years ago!

It’s a tough assignment for a new AB coach. Ever since England knocked NZ out of the WC in 2019, the ABs have struggled to string together top performances, week after week. That’s down to depth and conditioning.

SA have both depth and conditioning in spades. Especially if they can draw the ABs into a stop-start power game. If so, the SA bench will be difficult to combat.

The inside word is that the ABs were still suffering physically on the Thursday, following the last hard-fought win against Scotland. Two days later, England embarrassed them again.

The ABs bench is light on experience, and the players will be fresh from a season of SR, with lots of running metres and time in play. They’ll be primed for an aerobic fight, not an anaerobic slug fest.

Still, if Jamie Joseph or Rennie can work out how to get the big SA forwards running around at altitude all afternoon, NZ have a shot.

But recent history shows that so many big matches in a row will be too tough for the ABs. Injuries and fatigue will take their toll. South Africa’s enormous depth will prevail. SA 3 - AB 1

My hot take:

One blow out/comfortable win to the Boks (3rd test)

One close win for the ABs (first test I think)

A coin toss on the other two with the last match being a dead rubber, likely the boks having sealed it already?

Boks go down 4-0

He might be comfortable because, unlike the last two AB coaches, he was full tenure for the foreseeable future. 😀 Anyway, the only metric is the W Cup - for SA.