Should the Queensland Reds re-sign Karmichael Hunt?
Karmichael Hunt – boom or bust?
It’s been reported that the three-time code-hopper is close to re-signing with the Queensland Reds and the ARU for an additional two years, an extension that will secure Hunt until the 2019 Rugby World Cup. At 30 years old, Hunt’s career is in the twilight stages after stints in the NRL, AFL, and Super Rugby – but should the Reds think twice before bringing him back?
High Risk, High Reward
The original Hunt deal in late 2014 was a splash signing made by Reds to secure a code swapping ‘superstar’, going all-in to maintain the Reds momentum since capturing the 2011 Super Rugby title. The 2015 roster still had a large swathe of the 2011 title team intact. Along with another glamour signing in James O’Connor, this looked like the best Reds team ever. Hunt, who enjoyed a high level of success in the NRL, would seemingly be a great addition.
A key driver in this contract must have been the successful transition of Israel Folau the year before, who took rugby by storm immediately and became a global superstar. The Reds must have had visions of similar success.
It never materialised. Not even close. And looking back it was unlikely to happen for a multitude of reasons.
In comparison to the other big code-swap signing at the same time, Israel Folau going to the Waratahs, the Hunt deal was far more of a risk. Hunt was 28 years old during his first year of professional rugby compared with a much younger Folau, who was 24. Folau was entering his peak years as an athlete, whereas Hunt was nearly at the end of his. The Reds expected Hunt to play a key tactical position, whereas Folau was able to get by on more natural athletic talent as he learned more about the game.
At the time of the deal, it was reported that the Reds would have to cover the full contract of an estimated $600,000 per season – with no ARU top-up to secure Hunt.
The sheer size of the contract increased the risk/reward paradigm dramatically. In order to justify the deal, the return needed to be on the same level (if not more than Folau), yet Hunt was about to make a much more difficult transition into a key tactical position at fullback.
For a cash-strapped union, that size of commitment put Hunt into the upper echelon of contracted players. On that kind of money, exceptional performance is required from day one with minimal-to-no leeway for ‘finding your feet’.
An almost impossible task stood in front of Hunt. This was a high-risk high-stakes contract the Reds had gambled on.
Destined to fail – Wrong place, wrong time
Unfortunately for Hunt, the ship he jumped onto was losing steam and heading in the wrong direction. The Reds golden era that had been built by coach Ewan McKenzie was nosediving fast under the stewardship of Richard Graham. The team had gone from fifth to 13th in the space of a season, finishing 2014 with a 5-11 record.
The forward-orientated, conservative and often directionless style of play under Graham’s coaching would not allow Hunt to make any sort of impact, let alone match Folau’s success.
When the playmaker and central attacking cog on the team, Quade Cooper, went down with a pre-season injury before the 2015 season, it lowered Hunt’s chances of a boom transition to almost zero. He was thrown in to play first five-eighth, in a code he hadn’t played since he was 17.
Hunt became embroiled in an off-field cocaine scandal shortly after the first game of the season, leading to a six-week suspension. He missed valuable game time and didn’t return until round eight, guaranteeing the first season would be a complete write-off.
Surprisingly, the Reds did not use this unforeseen development to back out of the deal.
One of the problems that became apparent when he returned to action was what position Hunt would actually play, given that the first five-eighth experiment fell apart almost immediately. On returning from his suspension, he was moved into the midfield before ending the year as a fullback in the NRC. The chopping and changing further hindered his development, and it soon became apparent he wasn’t able to star in any position.
His first season of Super Rugby netted one clean break, one try assist, zero tries, eight defenders beaten and 193 total running metres.
“No one’s ever doubted the quality of footballer [he is], but changing codes and particularly coming from AFL after five years, there was always going to be a transition” – coach Richard Graham was quoted after the season. It begs the question then, why would you pay a top-level contract for a development player?
Hunt’s first season of rugby was a case of Murphy’s Law for the Reds, everything that could go wrong did and made the investment in Hunt a poor one.
Rugby Purgatory
The downward spiral of the Reds reached a tipping point when, just two games into the 2016 season, Graham was sacked. Instability at the franchise was clear and Hunt was stuck in the middle of it, trying to learn the game at the highest level at the same time as playing it.
The coach that had heavily recruited Hunt was now gone, along with experienced players such as Will Genia and Quade Cooper. Hunt’s on-field performance improved slightly with regular game time at fullback but the Reds were poor without an established playmaker, finishing the 2016 season in 15th place with a record of 3-1-11.
Despite another coaching change in the offseason (the removal of interim co-head coach Matt O’Connor and promotion of Nic Stiles), the 2017 season offered Hunt’s best chance of success at Super Rugby, with Cooper returning and Hunt having a full season at fullback under his belt.
His performances improved enough in 2017 to earn a Wallabies call-up. Hunt was beginning to show signs that he could live up to the contract given to him, and show that he could potentially be a force in Super Rugby.
He registered seven line breaks, 10 line break assists, four try assists and three tries on the season – moderate numbers but a marked improvement from the first season.
The Crossroad
However, the $1.8 million investment in Hunt is now a very large sunk cost for Reds. The massive gamble hasn’t paid off as the Reds had hoped, and for Hunt it ended up being a bad career move putting himself in a situation where he was set up to fail. It’s only now three years later that Hunt is showing glimpses of hope, but the cheques have already been cashed.
Karmichael Hunt will be 31 years of age when the next season starts. How will he hold up when the inevitable decline in physical traits creeps in? Can he add more in attack as a playmaker to compensate?
The problem for the Reds is the lack of depth at fullback in their system with no apparent heir ready, which adds weight to the argument for keeping Hunt around. Jayden Ngamanu is a legitimate future long-term option that they could blood now and give experience but will require patience.
The Reds have invested a lot of time into their young talent that will command contract upgrades in the coming seasons: Duncan Paia’aua, Izaia Perese, James Tuttle, Taniela Tupou etc. Letting go of Hunt can free up resources to ensure that the next generation stays.
Dane Haylett-Petty’s decision to join the Rebels was a missed opportunity but presents another; the young Rebels fullback Jack Maddocks now won’t see much playing time and comes off contract at the end of next season. Maddocks was a standout for the Australia u20’s last year, mainly for his performances against the New Zealand side who went on to win the Junior World Cup. Maddocks has way more upside and would be a lot cheaper.
The Reds won’t be competing for a title anytime soon, letting go of Hunt will give them more options in rebuilding around the next generation of core players. The Reds should be wary of what price Hunt will cost, even a 50 percent pay cut would still be a significant contract.
Re-signing Hunt for another two years is fool’s gold.
Again.
Comments on RugbyPass
I think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
4 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
14 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
14 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
3 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
6 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to commentsJake White is a brilliant coach and a master in the press. This is another masterclass in media relations and PR but its also a very narrow view with arguments that dont always hold water. White wants his team to win, he wants the best players in SA and wants his team competitive. You however have to face up to the reality of a poor exchange rate and big clubs with big budgets. SA Rugby cant compete and unless it can find more money SA players will keep leaving regardless of Springbok eligibility and this happened in 2015 - 2017. Also rugby is not cricket. Cricket has 3 formats and T20 cricket is where the money is at. When it comes to club vs country the IPL is king but that wont happen because the international calendar does not clash with the club calendar in rugby. So the argument about rugby going down the same path as cricket is really a non-starter
22 Go to commentsNZ rugby seem not to have learnt anything from professional rugby. Super rugby was dying and SA left before they died with the competition. SA rugby did a u turn on their approach to international players playing overseas and such players are now selected for Bok teams. As much as each country would love to retain their players playing in local competitions, this is the way the world is evolving my friends. Move with it or stay 20 years behind the times. One more thing. NZ rugby hierarchy think they are the big cheese. Take a more humble approach guys. You do not seem to have your players best interests at heart.
4 Go to commentsBeaches? In Cardiff? Where?
1 Go to commentsHe is right , the Crusaders will be a threat. Scott Barrett, ( particularly), Fergus Burke , Codie Taylor, ( from sabbatical) etc due back soon for the Crusaders. There are others like Zach Gallagher too. People can right the Crusaders off, Top 8 , here we come !!
1 Go to commentsWe will always struggle for money to match the other sides but the least the WRU can do is invest properly in Welsh rugby. Too much has been squandered on vanity projects like the hotel and roof walk amongst others which will never see a massive return. Hanging the 4 pro sides out to dry over the last decade is now coming back to bite the WRU financially as well as on the pitch. You reap what you sow.
1 Go to comments