Select Edition

Northern Northern
Southern Southern
Global Global
NZ NZ

Pre-match analysis - Ireland vs England

By Alex Shaw
Ireland and England boil over. (Getty Images)

Ireland versus England.

There are few more appetising fixtures in the rugby calendar and as a contest for the opening week of the Guinness Six Nations, it is tough to top, with the two sides between them accounting for all five championship titles since 2014.

ADVERTISEMENT

After storming out of the post-2015 Rugby World Cup blocks, England have conceded their dominance of northern hemisphere rugby to Ireland, but now head to Dublin – in a RWC year – with their focus set on retaining their title and going into rugby’s showpiece later this year in as strong a position as possible. Ireland, meanwhile, have dispensed with the underdog tag and are now ready to embrace their place at the top of the international game.

The Coaches

In a meeting of two of the canniest operators in world rugby, who comes out on top?

Joe Schmidt is 2-1 up on Eddie Jones in the head-to-head between the two coaches in their current tenures and the New Zealander is widely regarded as one of the best, if not the pinnacle of current international coaches. He has taken Ireland – who were perennially seen as underperformers on the international stage – and turned them into a side that has recorded multiple wins over the All Blacks, as well as delivering the nation’s third Grand Slam in their Six/Five Nations history.

Video Spacer

As for the Australian, he enjoyed remarkable success with England early in his reign but has seen that initial momentum tempered by a challenging 2018. His intense training methods have drawn criticism and he is no stranger to controversial selection decisions, but he has still led England to 28 victories in the 35 test matches he has presided over, boasting an impressive win rate of 80%.

Advantage: Schmidt

Continue reading below…

Watch: Six Nations preview: Ireland in profile

Video Spacer

The Players

Tadhg Furlong (92) vs Mako Vunipola (87)

Unarguably the best tighthead in world rugby going up against certainly the most well-rounded loosehead. In terms of the set-piece battle, this match-up has to go in favour of Furlong, with his scrum score of 88 on the RPI topping Vunipola’s 70. The contribution in the loose leans itself more towards Vunipola, however, with the loosehead’s influence rating of 76, which charts involvements in scoring moments, seeing off the Leinster prop’s mark of 62. Last season, Furlong’s dominance in the set-piece would be enough to narrowly swing this contest, but with his 2018/19 form falling ever so slightly short of his bullocking 2017/18 displays, this is too close of a contest to call.

ADVERTISEMENT

Advantage: Even

 

Maro Itoje (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

James Ryan (93) vs Maro Itoje (93)

Ryan has seemingly replaced Itoje as the golden boy of European rugby, helping lead Leinster and Ireland to European and Six Nations triumphs, just as Itoje did with Saracens and England previously. A growing penalty count in international matches has seen the spotlight move somewhat from the English lock to Ryan, but such is the role that Jones asks Itoje to perform for his side. He is England’s spoiler-in-chief, whilst Ryan is given slightly more freedom to influence the game with his carrying. It is an incredibly tight contest to call, but Itoje’s ability at the lineout – lineout take of 89 and lineout steal of 92 – just edges it his way, with Ryan at 86 and 91 respectively on those RPI measures. Itoje’s proclivity for creating turnovers and springing transition rugby is something which could well be pivotal in deciding the outcome on Saturday, as illustrated by his influence rating of 82 to Ryan’s mark of 64.

Advantage: Itoje

Conor Murray (80) vs Ben Youngs (68)

ADVERTISEMENT

On paper, this could be seen as a one-sided contest. Murray is widely regarded as the best scrum-half in world rugby, especially with Aaron Smith slightly off his best over the last year and Faf de Klerk operating in an effective but quite unorthodox fashion. That said, Youngs is not too far off that top trio and it is arguably only because of the standards Murray has maintained in the northern hemisphere, that Youngs is not praised more for his consistency with England. Tempo, fringe opportunities, contestable box-kicks and accurate distribution are all areas where Youngs does well, but they are also all areas where Murray likely has small-to-significant advantages over his counterpart.

Advantage: Murray

Owen Farrell (Getty Images)

Jonathan Sexton (92) vs Owen Farrell (92)

The British and Irish Lions fly-half up against the British and Irish Lions inside centre, the box-office match-ups just keep on coming. On recent form, the needle is hovering slightly more in Sexton’s direction, but this is another of the contests which could go either way, particularly if one of the two packs can consistently deliver front-foot and quick ball for their side. Sexton arguably has the edge in multiple involvements in the same phase and manipulation of space, whilst Farrell shades it in late play on the gain-line and the physicality he will bring in defence. Of course, that last one could cost England as much as it helps them. This match-up may well be dictated by what the players around this pair do, rather than just their individual merits, but the advantage swings the way of the Irishman going into the contest.

Advantage: Sexton

Jacob Stockdale (84) vs Jonny May (73)

Perhaps a little unorthodox of a head-to-head, especially given the likes of Manu Tuilagi, Garry Ringrose and Bundee Aki that are not mentioned, but in addition to being their respective team’s best finishers, these two are also going to be key to the success of the kicking game on Saturday. The box-kick is only half the battle in the contest for territory, with the chase provided often making or breaking a scrum-half’s game. In this area, May could have a slight advantage over Stockdale, but it’s impossible to ignore the offensive form of the Ulsterman. He is barrelling his way over the try line, beating men for pace on the outside, collecting cross-field kicks and even tracking the ball in midfield as a support-runner. He is as versatile an attacking winger as there currently is, which is illustrated by his influence rating of 80, an extremely high mark for a player at Ulster, who do not necessarily create the amount of scoring moments that the Leinsters and Saracens of European rugby do.

Advantage: Stockdale

Key Battlegrounds

Gain-line

It’s going to be such a competitive and physically gruelling contest, with two of the best defences international rugby has to offer, so whichever side is able to more successfully break that gain-line is going to have a big advantage in the game. A pair of fit Vunipolas provide plenty of impetus for England, but is it enough for a pack that has struggled to generate that front-foot ball in the last year, especially against a defence as well-drilled as Ireland’s?

As for Ireland, they have the firepower in CJ Stander, Furlong and Ryan to consistently make those two or three metre carries that, whilst not making the highlight reel, keep Ireland moving forward onto the ball, rather than crabbing laterally or taking a step back.

Advantage: Ireland

Lineout

Can Peter O’Mahony and Ryan pillage the English set-piece or will George Kruis and Itoje be able to disrupt the Irish unit? The advantage at hooker probably lies with England and Jamie George, whose consistency when throwing is well-known, but O’Mahony has wrecked even the most efficient set-pieces in the past. If he can deny England a platform from which to build and dent their confidence that they can play a territory game at the Aviva, he’ll have Ireland on their way to victory.

That said, England have one of the better lineouts in international rugby and in Itoje and Kruis, two premier jumpers. Finding a third jumper they can go to consistently could be key if Ireland start to read England’s throws early, but they do have Courtney Lawes in reserve, so they do not lack for options. They will be confident about pressuring Rory Best, too, and if they can do that without coughing up penalties, the pendulum should swing in their favour.

Advantage: England

Conclusion

The RPI has Ireland as the number two team in international rugby, with 86 points, whilst England sit in third at 83, and it’s hard to disagree with that assessment. Throughout this pre-match analysis, Ireland have tended to shade the close contests and it would take a brave person to bet against similar happening on the scoreboard in Dublin on Saturday.

Ireland are reigning Grand Slam champions, they knocked off New Zealand at the end of 2018 and they have momentum coming into the tournament thanks to strong showings from the provinces in the Heineken Champions Cup. England can spoil the party on Saturday, but Ireland have the advantage going into the contest.

Ireland by 5.

Watch: Six Nations preview: England in profile

Video Spacer
ADVERTISEMENT

Join free

Aotearoa Rugby Podcast | Episode 6

Sam Warburton | The Big Jim Show | Full Episode

Japan Rugby League One | Sungoliath v Eagles | Full Match Replay

Japan Rugby League One | Spears v Wild Knights | Full Match Replay

Boks Office | Episode 10 | Six Nations Final Round Review

Aotearoa Rugby Podcast | How can New Zealand rugby beat this Ireland team

Beyond 80 | Episode 5

Rugby Europe Men's Championship Final | Georgia v Portugal | Full Match Replay

Trending on RugbyPass

Comments

Join free and tell us what you really think!

Sign up for free
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest Features

Comments on RugbyPass

J
Jon 4 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

This is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?

35 Go to comments
j
john 7 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

But here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.

30 Go to comments
A
Adrian 9 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause

30 Go to comments
T
Trevor 11 hours ago
Will forgotten Wallabies fit the Joe Schmidt model?

Thanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.

21 Go to comments
TRENDING
TRENDING 'It's an All Black discussion': The pair of young Hurricanes tipped for black jerseys The pair of young Hurricanes tipped for black jerseys
Search