Paul The Super Rugby Oracle's Quarterfinal Tips: Is An All-NZ Semifinals On The Cards?
Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
Paul continued his stunning late-season charge last week, following up his 9/9 Round 16 with an 8/9 Round 17 – only slipping up on the Jaguares vs Lions result which he tipped before the Lions decided to leave their whole first team in South Africa. Paul’s purple patch brings his season tipping record to 105/135, or 78% – we just about need to put a big old SPOILER ALERT before his quarterfinal tips at this rate.
Brumbies vs Highlanders
The Highlanders have a terrible record in Canberra and have won only two of the last nine matches against the Brumbies. That said, there has been absolutely nothing in recent form to suggest the Brumbies are capable of matching the Highlanders this Friday. The Highlanders got back into their playoff mode last week, made few errors, tackled and rushed the Chiefs to distraction and eventually pulled away to claim a good win that would have been a big one against a less committed defence than the Chiefs offered. The Brumbies have a good driving maul … and that’s about it. Not much imagination, few game-breakers, no speed about their attacks and they can be pressured into error. None of that will have gone unnoticed down Dunedin way, and the visitors will have a game plan all sorted out that should be plenty good enough to win this one. Highlanders easily for me.
Pick: Highlanders (13 and over)
Hurricanes vs Sharks
Although the Sharks are a difficult opponent for the Hurricanes and they won well at Durban earlier this season, I think you can confidently ignore than result. That Sharks team had the du Preez brothers in top form, Patrick Lambie was available and played well, and they didn’t have the whole range of other injuries that have afflicted the team since. The Hurricanes have gone from strength to strength and last week’s performance was one of the year’s best from any team. Throw in the travel and everything else and even allow for a dodgy weather forecast, and the Hurricanes should have far too much for their visitors and should take this one easily.
Pick: Hurricanes (13 and over)
Stormers vs Chiefs
These sides haven’t met this season due to the South Africa 1 conference not getting to play the New Zealand sides, so this might be a shock to the Stormers’ systems. It will, for absolute certain, be a faster, more intense game than they have needed to play all year and if their big pack can’t organise a station-to-station game they’re in for a long and difficult afternoon. Not even the Cape press is expecting anything other than a big Chiefs win – they haven’t started putting pressure on the team as normally happens – and I doubt anyone is going to argue with that call.
Pick: Chiefs (13 and over)
Lions vs Crusaders
This is easily the pick of the quarterfinals, and it will be a test of Johan Ackerman’s decision to keep his top team at home while the Currie Cup side went to Buenos Aires. That may have cost top spot but I’m not sure the coach will be losing too much sleep; he knows he has a good side that’s capable of winning anywhere. The Crusaders got them at Ellis Park earlier this year but since then the Lions have impressed rather more than the Crusaders and they’ve put a string of big wins together. As this competition is normally won by teams with good attacks, the Lions are a good fit to make a strong challenge. The Crusaders are also missing Nemani Nadolo and Joe Moody, which won’t help their chances, but I rather think the Lions had their number anyway and the home side should get up in what promises to be a very interesting match.
Pick: Lions (12 and under)
Comments on RugbyPass
Lets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
10 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
10 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
6 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to comments