My World Cup predictions - Andy Goode
There will be twists and turns aplenty in the next three and a bit weeks of World Cup pool action but all four home nations will make it through to the quarter-finals.
A few huge stories will develop over the course of the pool stages with injuries and bans likely to play a major role, so anything can happen and it’s not going to go perfectly to form. But I do think the top eight teams in the world rankings now will make the knockout stage.
New Zealand versus South Africa is a mouth-watering match to have on the opening weekend but, to be honest, I don’t really think it matters who wins too much as they are both getting out of that pool and who knows which side of the draw will prove to be easier.
Scotland’s game against Ireland is far more important in reality as if they lose, that pool will build towards the epic crescendo of them facing hosts Japan and having to win to qualify for the last eight. They would have to do so just four days after playing Russia as well.
That would be tough but the Scots will have too much and Japan have got to beat Samoa before we get to that point anyway. I can’t see them beating Ireland first up, though, especially with the weather conditions expected in Yokohama.
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England are looking good on the back of some good performances and results in the warm-up games but things can change very quickly at World Cups and it’s not very long ago that they were surrendering a massive lead against Scotland in the Six Nations, so they won’t be counting their chickens.
I do expect them to top Pool C, though, so Saturday’s game between France and Argentina is massive. Maxime Medard has described it as “an all or nothing match”, which says it all really.
The Pumas are currently on their worst ever run, losing nine Tests in a row, and France have just started to find a bit of form, which has made people sit up and think that they might be able to make an impact in Japan.
‘There’s a lot of pride in how rugby is played, the camaraderie of players from different teams. That’s slipping. We’re getting some things we don’t need’
– Graham Henry with @JLyall93 on gamesmanship, mental health, All Blacks and @rugbyworldcup minnowshttps://t.co/sPvsN4ke5r— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) September 19, 2019
Both those teams normally turn up at World Cups but France have the edge with the likes of Antoine Dupont, Virimi Vakatawa, Alivereti Raka, Damian Penaud and co capable of pulling rabbits out of hats in the backline.
Wales were on top of the world a few weeks ago but back-to-back defeats to Ireland and now the Rob Howley bombshell mean there are a few more question marks over them. That kind of disruption does have the potential to unsettle the squad.
It all depends on how the players react and how adaptable they are because Stephen Jones is an awesome coach, so it could even improve their attack if they respond in the right manner.
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Fiji look phenomenal on paper and they have been together for 12 weeks prior to this tournament, which hasn’t been the case in the past, so they could cause a scare or two in Pool D. Let’s not forget that they beat Wales and knocked them out, taking the pool runners-up spot behind Australia back in 2007.
Any team with Leone Nakarawa, Bill Mata and Peceli Yato in the forwards and Semi Radradra, Josua Tuisova, Vereniki Goneva and more in the backs has a chance and, having spoken to some people, the Aussies are nervous about that game first up.
I can see why they are worried but the greater structure in the games of Australia and Wales and their experience means they will have too much.
#RWC2019: #RUS?? Captain @VA_rugby gives a fantastic overview of the game of rugby in our country in this interview with @RugbyPass https://t.co/KPLPoaj8Le
— Russian Rugby (@russiarugby) September 15, 2019
Last month I would have said that Wales were going to top that pool but the injuries that they have picked up, together with a bit of unrest and also the conditions in Japan, mean I have swung towards Australia to just edge it.
There could be red cards galore with the uncertainty around how the high tackle framework will be implemented by different referees, which would throw the most open World Cup ever even more wide open.
However, while predictions can make you look foolish, I don’t think you can go too far wrong with those eight teams and standout players.
MY QUARTER-FINAL LINE-UP
England v Wales
Australia v France
Ireland v South Africa
New Zealand v Scotland
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With Namibia, Canada and Italy in their pool, tries are on the cards for the All Blacks #rugbyworldcup
TOP TRY SCORER
There are a few other interesting areas to look at and if I were a betting man, I’d be having a few quid on George Bridge to be top try scorer, but I’d better be a bit careful after what has happened to Howley!
New Zealand wingers obviously tend to score a bucket load of tries and they have got Namibia, Canada and Italy in their pool. They have also really only picked three wingers in the squad and I can’t see Rieko Ioane and Sevu Reece starting together in the big games.
TOP POINTS SCORER
I’m going with Beauden Barrett to be the tournament’s top points scorer. Some people will question that given the uncertainty around whether Richie Mo’unga will start at 10 and perhaps do the kicking, but he is world-class and I’m backing him.
BREAKTHROUGH PLAYER OF THE TOURNAMENT
It sounds strange to call him a breakthrough player really, given what he’s done in the Top 14 in recent years, but France’s new Fijian Alivereti Raka hasn’t been seen on the world stage yet and he is one of the deadliest wingers in the game.
PLAYER OF THE TOURNAMENT
It’s pretty tough to pick a player of the tournament but you would have to go with someone from the team you think will likely win it. If they move him back to flyhalf, Barrett will stand out above the rest and win that award.
WATCH: Neil Back recalls England’s 2003 triumph in the opening episode of the new RugbyPass series, Rugby World Cup Memories
Comments on RugbyPass
The value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
3 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
10 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
40 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
10 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
40 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
3 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
40 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
51 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
40 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
40 Go to commentsI’m a pensioner so I've been around a bit. My opinion of SBW is he is an elite athlete and a great New Zealander and roll model. He has been to the top and knows what he's talking about. To all the negative comments regarding SBW the typical New Zealand way, cut that tall poppy down.
17 Go to commentsI'm not listening to a guy moralise over others when this is the guy who walked out mid season on Canterbury RLFC when he had a contract with them, what a hypocrite. All the Kiwis sticking up for this unprincipled individual because they can't accept justified criticism, he has zero credibility or integrity. Those praising him are a joke.
17 Go to commentsI’d put Finau at 6 instead of Blackadder but that’s the only change I’d make. Can’t wait to see who Razor picks.
40 Go to commentsTamati Williams, Codie Taylor, and Same Cane? Not sure about Hoskins Sotutu at test level. Wasn’t that impressive last season. Need a balance between experience and talent/youth.
40 Go to commentsInteresting insight. Fantastic athlete, and a genuine human being.
17 Go to commentsThey played at night in Suva last weekend and it’s an afternoon game forecast for 19 degrees in Canberra this weekend. Heat change is a non issue.
2 Go to commentsWishing Rosie a speedy recovery
1 Go to comments