How the Lions can beat the Crusaders
The Crusaders have been phenomenal under Scott Robertson with a 33-3 record, and are yet to lose a game at home in two years. When you consider that the franchise has never lost a playoff game at home either, the odds against the Lions continue to stack up.
Faced with an almost impossible task, what is the best possible game plan for the Lions to pull off an improbable upset? There are a number of factors in this match that will provide at least an even contest when you dive deeper into the matchup.
The Hurricanes found their pack was ultimately outmatched by the Crusaders ‘Rolls Royce’ version in the semifinal. Their star backs were almost completely nullified with slow ball and lethargic carries into the red and black wall.
What makes this contest more intriguing is the Lions have an equally strong pack, with possibly the competition’s most valuable player Malcolm Marx up front.
Marx has proven his world-class ability over the last year. He performs his core duties very well in addition to being a force with ball in hand. He leads the competition in lineout throwing efficiency at 90% and is part of a Lions front row that has decimated opposition scrums.
Jumper Franco Mostert leads the competition in lineout takes and steals, while Marvin Orie also ranks in the top 10 as a reliable second jumper. The Lions set piece platform will match, if not test the Crusaders pack. The lineout maul has been an obvious strength, which the Lions will use inside the 5 when they get the opportunity.
It is conceivable that the Lions will be able to disrupt the Crusaders set piece by competing at the lineout, and swing momentum with penalties at scrum time. They may be able to stifle the Crusaders phase play by making this a stop-start affair. The longer they can prevent the Crusaders from achieving continuity, the greater their chances of pulling off an upset.
The Lions tight five is built for traditional rugby, which will suit if wet weather packs in. The forecast for showers around kickoff will be welcomed by the visiting side, not that it will be wholly for their own benefit, but it is generally an equalizer between sides.
The Crusaders will be challenged to keep their platform stable and should props Joe Moody or Owen Franks be forced from the field, the pressure will be increased on replacement Michael Alaalatoa, who is the eighth most penalised player in the competition. The Lions would absolutely love Alaalatoa to be fed to them early.
The Crusaders compressed defence usually frees up space on the edge, and with fullback David Havili tasked with taking the last man, sides that are efficient in exploiting the edge can find good territorial gains against the Crusaders. Havili has proven a reliable one-on-one defender but with the team on the back foot, tries can be scored following large breaks down the left-hand side.
Seta Tamanivalu on the right wing is the matchup the Lions want to go to when offered the chance. The decision to leave rookie sensation Aphiwe Dyanti on the bench is puzzling when he possesses lightning speed that would match up perfectly.
In their two losses this year, opposition left wing Ben Lam had 75 run metres on three carries, scoring a try from a quick turnover. Tevita Li also had a big day, running for 117 metres on nine carries with three line breaks and eight defenders beaten. Rieko Ioane had his best outing of the season, torching the Crusaders with two tries, two try assists, nine defenders beaten and four line breaks in a game the Blues lost, but scored 24 points – all through left wing Ioane.
Benching impressive rookie Aphiwe Dyantyi in favour of another Springbok winger Courtnall Skosan might hurt, as Dyantyi has shown the ability to finish in tight windows and explode when given room. Either way, the Lions need to attack wide left off open side phase play and scrums to give Skosan and Dyantyi between 7-10 touches over the game. If they can bank one or two tries off those two it could be the difference.
The Lions played the 2016 final in New Zealand against the Hurricanes on a similar winters night, with light rain making the surface greasy and limiting the speed of the game. Crucial errors when trying to exit cost the Lions 14 points in a 20-3 loss.
Should wet weather be the case again, the responsibility falls on Elton Jantjies to direct the team around and kick well out-of-hand to relieve pressure. If he cannot do that, the Lions will stand no chance against the world-class kicking game of Richie Mo’unga and Bryn Hall. The Lions back three with Ruan Combrink and Andries Coetzee have to control territory risk by kicking well from the back.
Finding touch frequently slows down the game and puts the ball back in a set piece situation where the Lions can compete.
The team needs to exit well, compete at every set piece, attack the left edge in the middle third and play to their strong lineout maul when given penalties. With a bit of luck (and some rain), the Lions can keep this contest close. If it is a one-score game heading into the final 10, anything can happen.
The Lions will be hoping that ‘third time lucky’ rings true.
Comments on RugbyPass
I hope WRU cops a 12 month ban.
1 Go to commentsOuch. Pumped. Even Nohamba is a better flyhalf than Ford.
2 Go to commentsI hope Leinster’s proud of themselves fielding a poor team. They should decide if they’re all in or not.
2 Go to commentsJordie is looking at 16 games maximum if Leinster reach both the URC and champions cup finals. Thats not guaranteed. Some of those home URC fixtures will be cakewalks as well for Leinster and there is not much doing during the 6 nations in Feb and March so he can probably get a decent rest then. He will have to really put in it for maybe 7 or 8 games max. It should be a good move for both.
13 Go to commentsThe game was a quarter final, not a semi final. Barrett will be here for 6 months, he is no one's replacement at 13. That mantle will most likely ultimately go to Jamie Osborne, though Garry Ringrose has at least 4 more years in him. The long term problem position (in the next 3 years) for Leinster is tighthead prop, though there are a couple of prospects at schools level.
31 Go to commentsSo much for all that hype surrounding the ‘revival’ of Aussie rugby. The Blues were without the likes of regular starters Perofeta, Sullivan, Christie etc… This was a capitulation of the highest order by Australia’s finest. Joe Schmidt definitely has his work cut out for him.
2 Go to commentsYes they can ignore Sotutu. Like Akira Ioane plays OK at Super level but gets lost in tests. Too many chances too many failures.
2 Go to commentsA wallaby front-row of Bell, Blake and Tupou…now that would be hefty
1 Go to comments“But with an exceptional pass accuracy rating “ Which apart from Roigard is not a feature of any of the other 9s in NZ. Kind of basic for a Black 9 dont.you. think? Yet we keep seeing FC and TJ being rated ahead of him? Weird if it’s seen as vital to get our backline beating in your face defences.
1 Go to commentsThanks BeeMc! Looks like many teams need extra time to settle from the quadrennial northern migration. I think generally the quality of the Rugby has held up. Fiji has been fantastic and fun to watch
13 Go to commentsLets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
13 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
10 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
13 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
6 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
27 Go to comments