Jake White: The All Blacks aura has disappeared, they should be worried

I’m writing this column sitting in my house on the Western Cape, looking out to sea, watching the whales bobbing around. Ya, life is good, but I can’t get that Eden Park Test out of my mind. I mentioned the game on a radio station the other day and mark my words, there is history on the line for both sides. The Wallabies winning in Jo’Burg for the first time in 62 years, and the Pumas beating the All Blacks for the first time ever on home soil has set the tone. The 2025 Rugby Championship is being characterised for records falling and that should worry the All Blacks.

I’ve said in this column before, that I’ve been watching New Zealand rugby for as long as I can remember. I’m a huge admirer of what they’ve achieved, but they’ve had to innovate along the way to stay at the top. Indeed, a lot has been written about their post-2007 reset by Graham Henry, after World Cup heartache. The old-school brains trust put their heads together and decided they needed to change the way they were doing things. It set about a decade of unprecedented success.

It isn’t the first time the All Blacks have had to make big decisions. I remember too sitting with Andy Haden. He told me that in the mid-eighties, they sat down and had to decide whether they wanted to complement Buck Shelford and Jock Hobbs with another style of back-row – and this is well-documented – so the All Blacks sent scouts out and I think it was John Hart who said, “I’ve found this guy and he could be pretty special.” That guy was Michael Jones. He was playing centre for a provincial Waitemata side. Bringing him into the back-row was visionary. Look at what he did in world rugby. He scored the first try in the 1987 and 1991 World Cups. It is a record that will never be broken and he was one of the greatest players to ever grace the field.

Well, here we are again, nearly two decades later, with big decisions to make. Sure, they learnt how to win World Cups, but in those World Cup cycles, they are no longer the world’s dominant side, leaving you with more questions rather than answers among their fanbase. Is Reiko Ioane a wing or a centre and how don’t they know after 85 Tests? Does the midfield combination of Jordie Barrett and Billy Proctor have the right balance? Is Ardie Savea a No.8 or a loosie? Is Scott Barrett the right man to be All Blacks captain and is his brother Beauden the right man to steer the All Blacks to the 2027 World Cup? Is the back-three potent enough? There are even questions off the field. Was Ian Foster the right choice to succeed Steve Hansen? Was the way in which Scott Robertson got the job, before the 2023 World Cup, the right way to go about their business when they’re at their peak? It wasn’t the way New Zealand generally do things.

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It’s history repeating itself. I remember Taine Randell struggling as All Blacks captain at the 1999 World Cup when they crashed out to France and there was criticism of Sean Fitzpatrick. Fitzy said, “what do you mean it’s my fault?” and the rebuke, rightly or wrongly, was that he hadn’t handed over the shirt to the next guy to make sure certain standards were upheld. That’s the premium they put on ex-captains to make sure the legacy stays in-tact.

I read a column this week and Justin Marshall was bemoaning the loss to Argentina. He said all the blood, sweat and tears expended maintaining that 35-year unbroken winning record over Los Pumas has disappeared in just five years. They’ve now lost home and way. That’s taking nothing away from Argentina who have been quite magnificent now they’ve been bedded into the old Tri-Nations since 2012, but the All Blacks aura has disappeared.

For me, the All Blacks had always been the benchmark in how to do things properly in rugby. When Tana Umaga hung up his boots, his after match function had Sir Jock Hobbs, Wayne Graham and other such luminaries thanking him for his service to All Blacks rugby. Sitting there as a visiting coach, it was symptomatic of how they did things the right way.

So, what’s next for New Zealand? Well to explain, I’ll tell you a story. As a young school coach, I was invited to a water polo conference. There was a respected Hungarian water polo coach talking and he said, “South Africans are afraid to go one step backwards in order to go ten steps forward.” He said they would rather take baby steps to make progress, rather than making enormous leaps. I’ve always applied that to my coaching. Sometimes you have to stop the bus and reboot. This is where I think New Zealand rugby are now. This is make or break for them. They weren’t happy when they were No 1 in the world between World Cups, but the narrative is that they’re building depth and building for the World Cup. That’s a very different mindset to the continued excellence they espoused a decade ago and prompted James Kerr’s iconic Legacy book.

I will keep reiterating. I have enormous admiration for them. They have always been the leaders in the field. It’s a tiny island in the middle of nowhere, but they’ve been World Champions in the men’s and women’s game. They’ve been Sevens champions, Super Rugby Champions. Hell, they had the recipe for Coca-Cola. The secret sauce to success. Coaches would go to New Zealand to ‘steal’ their IP. Going there was like a Swiss Finishing School for elite coaches. Visiting Super Rugby coaches would try and set up meetings or attend training with all those big name coaches, like Laurie Mains, Gordon Hunter, Robbie Deans and John Hart, just to pick their brains and see what was happening in New Zealand. That’s why this Eden Park Test is much bigger than 80 minutes of rugby.

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PA

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2

1

1

0

6

2

Australia

2

1

1

0

5

3

South Africa

2

1

1

0

4

4

Argentina

2

1

1

0

4

I know what I would do but that’s not important, but New Zealand rugby have to make a decision.

They need to show why they’ve always been thought leaders in rugby. I should say this responsibility shouldn’t all be on Scott Robertson’s shoulders. When I went into the sheds and saw Sir Brian Lahore, Jock Hobbs, BJ Williams, Sir Graham Henry and the like discussing the direction of New Zealand rugby, I realised that New Zealand rugby is much bigger than the guy who is coaching the team. Liverpool were the same in the days of the famed boot room with Shankly, Paisley and Joe Fagan and two decades of success followed. Fast forward a few decades and the handover from Jurgen Klopp to Arne Slot was peerless. That’s how you create a dynasty. If you get the succession planning wrong, you can be in the wilderness for a generation.

Of course, there’s a lot of outside noise. Murray Mexted has a view on who should be No.8. Justin Marshall is saying they’re kicking too much or too little. Israel Dagg is questioning the back-three’s potency? I’m saying that wasn’t the New Zealand I knew. They were always watertight, got their business done with the minimum of fuss and the common cause was always bigger than the individual. These former All Blacks are just offering their opinions. They’re not doing anything malicious, but it creates uncertainty that is only amplified by social media.

I would say, however, that I think it’s curious Scott Robertson’s coaching staff have no international coaching experience. Saying that NZ Rugby knew what they were getting because they went through a thorough recruitment process but are they getting guidance from the Sir Graham Henrys, Wayne Smiths, Warren Gatlands and Robbie Deans of this world. I thought that was a given.

Finally, I’m sure neutral fans are revelling in this Rugby Championship and the breaking up of the old world order. I’ve read as much from Brian Moore. For once there’s a tournament where four teams look like they can win it. Argentina deserve enormous credit, and Australia seem to have found themselves and have momentum. They are dining at the top table again and will believe they can pick up points at home.

Then we return to Eden Park. The world’s No 1 are playing the world No 2 and it’s no longer a fait accompli that the winner there will lift the championship. A week ago, South Africa hadn’t got a point on the board and New Zealand had five points, but that’s all changed. Just like the whales I’m watching now, two giants of the rugby’s ocean are circling each other and searching for supremacy. There can be only one winner.