Some improbable predictions for The Rugby Championship
With 2018’s iteration of the southern hemisphere’s highest level of rugby competition set to kick off this weekend, we take a look at some events you might have to look forward to in this year’s Rugby Championship.
Richie Mo’unga to be thrown in the deep end
Steve Hansen and the other All Blacks coaches have been fairly consistent with easing new players onto the international stage. Excepting a few prodigious talents here and there, most newer caps have been given a handful of minutes off the bench before being thrust into a starting position.
One particularly notable exception to this occurred in 2015, the year of the last Rugby World Cup, when Lima Sopoaga was given the reins in his debut match – after he had only come into the squad as an injury replacement for Aaron Cruden.
Starting debuts aren’t always going to be nerve-wracking – not if you’re playing at home against one of the lower ranked teams in the world – but Sopoaga was thrust into the spotlight in one of the toughest places to play in world rugby, Johannesburg, against a Springboks team rearing from a close loss to the Wallabies in the previous week.
Richie Mo’unga’s exceptional form for the Crusaders has seen him come into discussions regarding who should be leading the All Blacks’ backline – and whilst Hansen has suggested that Barrett is still seen as the leading first five in the squad, it would not be a shock to see Mo’unga be given the playmaker duties in one of the tougher Rugby Championship matches.
We’ll likely see a very settled 23 selected to begin with, but seeing Mo’unga named at 10 for one of the bigger matches later in the tournament wouldn’t be surprising.
Reece Hodge to emerge as the Wallabies’ first choice centre
Samu Kerevi has slowly locked down the 13 position in the Wallabies backline in the last year, but when injury struck him down in late June it was expected that Tevita Kuridrani would slot into his place on the team sheet. Kuridrani was previously the first choice centre for the Wallabies for a number of years and offered a very similar replacement option for coach Michael Cheika.
Of course, the one thing you can count in rugby is injuries in positions where you can least afford them. So it was, that Kuridrani tore a muscle in the Brumbies’ final match of the Super Rugby season – an effective dead rubber against the Waratahs – and removed any chance of him taking Kerevi’s place.
Arguably the Wallabies’ most versatile player, Reece Hodge, has now ostensibly been given the job of plugging the midfield and keeping the Wallabies firing. Hodge has spent time in almost every backline position for Australia in his three years with the team, and in the recent match against an Australian Super Rugby selection is what Hodge who was handed the 13 jersey.
Hodge’s international experience means he’s preferred over the likes of newcomers such as Billy Meakes and Curtis Rona, and his flexibility and adaptability mean that’s he’s an automatic selection at least somewhere in the Wallabies 23.
Of most interest is the fact that Hodge offers a considerably different playstyle to injured teammates Kerevi and Kuridrani – his kicking ability is exceptional both in terms of placement and distance and he has a knack for getting the ball to players in space. He’s also much less likely to try winning a one on one with opposition players but is still excellent at getting over the gain line.
Hodge will almost certainly start at centre when the Wallabies host the All Blacks in Sydney for the first Bledisloe Cup match of 2018 – but even once Kuridrani and Kerevi become available later in the season, it will be Hodge who Cheika entrusts with the 13 jersey.
Argentina to lose all their matches
Since Argentina joined The Rugby Championship in 2012, they have finished dead last in the competition in every season except 2015, when they recorded a home win against South Africa. In many of those seasons, the Pumas picked up a draw or a victory – but they have been few and far between.
The recent success of the Jaguares in Super Rugby would suggest that Argentinian rugby is on the rise, but the Pumas’ restrictive selection means fruits are unlikely to be bore at the international level. Argentina have been on a downward slide in recent times and ex-coach Daniel Hourcade has paid the price, with new coach Mario Ledesma now given the tough job of turning around the team’s fortunes.
New staff often breathes fresh life into sports teams – and no doubt we will see this with Argentina in the coming years, but this upcoming Rugby Championship is unlikely to give Puma’s fans much reason for immediate optimism. Expect to see Argentina start the competition on the back foot from day one, and a flogging is on the cards when the All Blacks visit Buenos Aires in round five.
The competition to be decided in the last round
The All Blacks have started The Rugby Championship as firm favourites in the last few years and 2018 is no different. We’ve seen New Zealand whitewash the competition in the last two years – but maybe this season will be a little different.
Argentina aside, the competition looks to be considerably stronger than in recent years. Australia have a settled squad with game changers in the form of David Pocock, Michael Hooper, Will Genia, Kurtley Beale and Israel Folau. The nature of The Rugby Championship means that the Wallabies always start off on the wrong foot because they always play the All Blacks in the first two weeks of the competition – but this year they’ve tried to get in a bit more practice beforehand with their hit out against the Super Rugby selection.
The first Bledisloe will be a titanic battle – and until recent years, when the Wallabies have been at their weakest for a long time, Sydney has traditionally not been a prosperous hunting ground for the All Blacks.
Equally as important is the fact that the Springboks have genuine class all over the park and an astute coach in Rassie Erasmus. Whilst their top team may not be quite as established as the All Blacks’ or the Wallabies’, they unquestionably have enough talent to win against anyone on a good day. With young, thirsty wings on the outsides and experienced grunt up front in the form of Malcolm Marx, Eben Etzebeth and Francois Louw, the final round of the competition where South Africa hosts New Zealand in Pretoria will be an absolute thriller.
For the sake of the competition and for the sake of world rugby as a whole, South Africa and Australia need to stand up to New Zealand – and in 2018 they may well have the firepower to do so.
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Comments on RugbyPass
$950k for a Prop that isn’t fit enough to play 10 mins of rugby? Surely there is someone better to replace Big Mike with
2 Go to commentsFour Kiwis in that backline. A solid statement on the lack of invention, risk-taking and joy in the NH game; game of attrition and head- banging tedium. Longterm medical problems aplenty in the future!
1 Go to commentsGood article, I learnt quite a lot. A big sliding door moment was in the mid 00s when they rejected Steve Anderson's long term transformation and he wrote Ireland's strategy instead.
2 Go to commentsHi Dr Nick! I'm worried that I've started to enjoy watching England and have actually wanted them to win their last two games. What would you prescribe? On a more serious note, I've noticed that the standard of play in March is often better than early February. Do you think this is because of the weather or because the players have been together for longer?
10 Go to commentsMy question in all this brett is who is going to wear the consequences of these actions? Surely just getting the sack isn’t sufficient? A teenager working the till at woolies would probably get taken to court if they took $20 out of the till. You mean to tell me that someone can spend $2.6 million and get away with it? Where was it spent? What companies/people were the beneficiaries etc? How is it just being talked about as an ‘oopsie’ and we all just move on and not a matter of the court for gross negligence, fraud, take your pick…
18 Go to commentslove Manu too but England have relied on him coming back from injury for far too long and not sorted the position with someone else long term . It will be a blessing he has gone . Huge shame he was so injury prone . God speed Manu .
3 Go to commentsI agree with Ben Smith about Brett Cameron. The No. 6 position has to be a monster and a genuine lineout option, like Ollivon, Lawes (now Chessum), Du Toit, etc. The only player who fits that bill right now is Scott Barrett. A fit and fizzing Tuipolotu together with one of the young towers, Sam Darry or Josh Lord, would give Razor the freedom to play Barret at 6.
16 Go to commentsOutstanding article, Graham. Agree with all of it. And enjoy the style of writing too (particularly Grand Slap!).
2 Go to commentsI wouldn't pay a cent for that loafer. He just stands around, waiting for play to come his way. He won't make the Wallabies.
2 Go to commentsGood bit of te reo maori Nic. Or is that Niko or Nikora? On the theme of trees the Oaks v Totara. Game plan would be key. I have one but it would cost you.
10 Go to comments> Shaun Edwards’ You should not have to score 30 points to win a game, as exciting as it is. This statement was surprising to me. It is nonsensical .I guess it is a defence coach speaking. But head coach, defence and attacking coaches all work together. They are inseparable. You score more than the opposition to win. It only needs to be one score. You score whatever the game demands, whatever the opposition demand. You defend whatever it takes. The attack coach needs to be able to clock up 30pts if need be.
10 Go to commentsWho’d have thought, not having Farrell & Youngs kicking the ball at every possible opportunity and playing flat and allowing your centres to run and pass would pay off? No one could possibly have seen this coming. FML. It took a LONG time coming but at least that time has finally come. England need to find a backup to Lawrence. Freeman is the best candidate for me, I see no reason why he can't play 12. He's big, strong, fast and has great hands.
10 Go to commentsLove Manu but he's not the player he was and I imagine Bayonne have paid too much money for him.
3 Go to commentsNew Zealand have not beaten England since 2018 and even that was a pretty close shave.
1 Go to comments“a renewed focus on Scottish-qualified players” Scottish-qualified is another way of saying English. England has development more players for the Scotland national Rugby team in the last 4 years, than Scotland has.
2 Go to commentsThis sounds a lot like the old Welsh rugby proverb “Wales never lose. Other teams just score more points.”
5 Go to commentsFinally,at last, Borthwick has done what the whole of England have been crying out for. Ditch the kick chase and let the players have freedom to attack and run with the ball. It was great to see. Ford played really well and for the first time in ages was 5 yards closer to the gainline which then allowed a more attacking position . Pity it has taken 90 odd caps to do so. However, this has to continue and not be a false dawn . One issue. Marcus. With Ford having one really good game in 5 ,is he the answer long term . Smith puts bums on seats and is terrific to watch . How can you leave him out before he departs for France in disillusion . England are in danger of Simmons , Alex Goode , Cipriani , Mercer and now Smith being unable to get a selection ahead of “favourites” of the management regardless of form . Great to see England play so well .
2 Go to commentsCockerill was an abrasive player in the mould of a Georgian front rower who will have the respect of that pack. Looking forward to seeing what he can do with this exciting team, hopefully they can send a message to unions like Wales that money alone doesn't buy you wins.
2 Go to commentsI like the look of those July matches. Hopefully they'll get some good tests in November too.
2 Go to commentsThis is a poor article, essentially just trolling six nations teams
22 Go to comments