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Some improbable predictions for The Rugby Championship

By Tom Vinicombe
The Rugby Championship

With 2018’s iteration of the southern hemisphere’s highest level of rugby competition set to kick off this weekend, we take a look at some events you might have to look forward to in this year’s Rugby Championship.

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Richie Mo’unga to be thrown in the deep end

Steve Hansen and the other All Blacks coaches have been fairly consistent with easing new players onto the international stage. Excepting a few prodigious talents here and there, most newer caps have been given a handful of minutes off the bench before being thrust into a starting position.

One particularly notable exception to this occurred in 2015, the year of the last Rugby World Cup, when Lima Sopoaga was given the reins in his debut match – after he had only come into the squad as an injury replacement for Aaron Cruden.

Starting debuts aren’t always going to be nerve-wracking – not if you’re playing at home against one of the lower ranked teams in the world – but Sopoaga was thrust into the spotlight in one of the toughest places to play in world rugby, Johannesburg, against a Springboks team rearing from a close loss to the Wallabies in the previous week.

Richie Mo’unga’s exceptional form for the Crusaders has seen him come into discussions regarding who should be leading the All Blacks’ backline – and whilst Hansen has suggested that Barrett is still seen as the leading first five in the squad, it would not be a shock to see Mo’unga be given the playmaker duties in one of the tougher Rugby Championship matches.

We’ll likely see a very settled 23 selected to begin with, but seeing Mo’unga named at 10 for one of the bigger matches later in the tournament wouldn’t be surprising.

Reece Hodge to emerge as the Wallabies’ first choice centre

Samu Kerevi has slowly locked down the 13 position in the Wallabies backline in the last year, but when injury struck him down in late June it was expected that Tevita Kuridrani would slot into his place on the team sheet. Kuridrani was previously the first choice centre for the Wallabies for a number of years and offered a very similar replacement option for coach Michael Cheika.

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Of course, the one thing you can count in rugby is injuries in positions where you can least afford them. So it was, that Kuridrani tore a muscle in the Brumbies’ final match of the Super Rugby season – an effective dead rubber against the Waratahs – and removed any chance of him taking Kerevi’s place.

Arguably the Wallabies’ most versatile player, Reece Hodge, has now ostensibly been given the job of plugging the midfield and keeping the Wallabies firing. Hodge has spent time in almost every backline position for Australia in his three years with the team, and in the recent match against an Australian Super Rugby selection is what Hodge who was handed the 13 jersey.

Hodge’s international experience means he’s preferred over the likes of newcomers such as Billy Meakes and Curtis Rona, and his flexibility and adaptability mean that’s he’s an automatic selection at least somewhere in the Wallabies 23.

Of most interest is the fact that Hodge offers a considerably different playstyle to injured teammates Kerevi and Kuridrani – his kicking ability is exceptional both in terms of placement and distance and he has a knack for getting the ball to players in space. He’s also much less likely to try winning a one on one with opposition players but is still excellent at getting over the gain line.

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Hodge will almost certainly start at centre when the Wallabies host the All Blacks in Sydney for the first Bledisloe Cup match of 2018 – but even once Kuridrani and Kerevi become available later in the season, it will be Hodge who Cheika entrusts with the 13 jersey.

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Argentina to lose all their matches

Since Argentina joined The Rugby Championship in 2012, they have finished dead last in the competition in every season except 2015, when they recorded a home win against South Africa. In many of those seasons, the Pumas picked up a draw or a victory – but they have been few and far between.

The recent success of the Jaguares in Super Rugby would suggest that Argentinian rugby is on the rise, but the Pumas’ restrictive selection means fruits are unlikely to be bore at the international level. Argentina have been on a downward slide in recent times and ex-coach Daniel Hourcade has paid the price, with new coach Mario Ledesma now given the tough job of turning around the team’s fortunes.

New staff often breathes fresh life into sports teams – and no doubt we will see this with Argentina in the coming years, but this upcoming Rugby Championship is unlikely to give Puma’s fans much reason for immediate optimism. Expect to see Argentina start the competition on the back foot from day one, and a flogging is on the cards when the All Blacks visit Buenos Aires in round five.

The competition to be decided in the last round

The All Blacks have started The Rugby Championship as firm favourites in the last few years and 2018 is no different. We’ve seen New Zealand whitewash the competition in the last two years – but maybe this season will be a little different.

Argentina aside, the competition looks to be considerably stronger than in recent years. Australia have a settled squad with game changers in the form of David Pocock, Michael Hooper, Will Genia, Kurtley Beale and Israel Folau. The nature of The Rugby Championship means that the Wallabies always start off on the wrong foot because they always play the All Blacks in the first two weeks of the competition – but this year they’ve tried to get in a bit more practice beforehand with their hit out against the Super Rugby selection.

The first Bledisloe will be a titanic battle – and until recent years, when the Wallabies have been at their weakest for a long time, Sydney has traditionally not been a prosperous hunting ground for the All Blacks.

Equally as important is the fact that the Springboks have genuine class all over the park and an astute coach in Rassie Erasmus. Whilst their top team may not be quite as established as the All Blacks’ or the Wallabies’, they unquestionably have enough talent to win against anyone on a good day. With young, thirsty wings on the outsides and experienced grunt up front in the form of Malcolm Marx, Eben Etzebeth and Francois Louw, the final round of the competition where South Africa hosts New Zealand in Pretoria will be an absolute thriller.

For the sake of the competition and for the sake of world rugby as a whole, South Africa and Australia need to stand up to New Zealand – and in 2018 they may well have the firepower to do so.

Think you can build a Super team? Join The Rugby Championship Fantasy now and you’ll stand to win $1000s in prizes! It’s not hard: https://fantasytab.fantasyrugger.com/

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J
Jon 6 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

This is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?

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j
john 9 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

But here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.

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A
Adrian 11 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause

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