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How important is discipline? Super Rugby's playoff teams by the numbers

By Scotty Stevenson
Israel Dagg (Photo: Getty Images)

The Super Rugby finals kick off this weekend with the best attacking teams in the competition favoured to have it all their way in the first round. That’s all well and good, but finals footy is finals footy, and as Scotty Stevenson discovers, we may need to have a conversation about discipline, too.

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You never want to leave the result in the hands of the referee. So goes one of rugby’s more timeless adages. Rugby’s history is chock-full of results that turned on a last minute penalty call – or non-call as more recent events would remind us – and there are plenty of gnarly old veterans still harbouring various resentments at match officials who rightly or wrongly robbed them of their shot at immortality.

What we do know is that when it comes to finals time, and teams are puckered up tighter than a bullfrog’s sphincter, discipline becomes a coach’s catch-cry. No playoff team, regardless of how many buckets of points they have scored during the regular season, can afford to let their guard down in a do-or-die match. Scoreboard pressure is a very real thing; conceding momentum-shifting penalties in play-off games is a recipe for disaster, and it’s the New Zealand sides most at risk of being on the wrong side of the penalty equation.

Before we get to that, some context. Firstly, it’s not as if teams in Super Rugby are renowned for playing for penalties. Of the 1,496 penalties earned inside opposition territory during the regular season, just 539 were used as goal-scoring attempts. Of those attempts, 426 were successful. Simply put, Super Rugby teams converted just 28% of all opposition half penalties into three-point plays.

A breakdown of the playoffs teams looks like this:

All up, the playoff teams converted just 27.7% – 189 of their 680 earned penalties in opposition territory – into three-point plays, a tick under the competition percentage. Remove the Sharks – inarguably the most enthusiastic penalty-kicking team off them all, and that figure drops to just 24%.

This could be an indication that teams would rather attempt to convert penalties into try-scoring chances – especially in the case of the Hurricanes who converted a lowly 11.8% of their earned penalties into three points. However, what is noticeable is that New Zealand teams are behind all other sides in their ability to win valuable penalties in opposition territory. Note how the Crusaders, Highlanders, Hurricanes and Chiefs are the bottom four teams.

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If you flip that equation and look at the penalties each New Zealand team has conceded in their own half, the Crusaders sit on 83, the Hurricanes on 84, the Chiefs on 87, and the Highlanders on 71, making them the only New Zealand side that wins more penalties in opposition territory than they concede in their own.

That is a trend that continues through into the season’s total penalty differential. As you can see in the following breakdown, the New Zealand playoff sides have conceded more penalties this season than they have earned.

If we look at every other team in the playoffs, the story is the complete opposite. The Brumbies, Lions, Sharks and Stormers all boast a positive penalty differential this season.

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We can look further at the specific types of penalties, too. At the breakdown, it is once again the New Zealand sides who boast the worst penalty differential this season, with three of the four in negative territory and only the Hurricanes in the positive.

The same story is again illustrated at the scrum, where all but one New Zealand team have conceded more penalties than they have earned. The Crusaders and Stormers (+12) have the best scrum penalty differential this season, with the Lions (+9), and Brumbies and Sharks (+6) also in the positive. The Chiefs (-2), Highlanders (-4) and Hurricanes (-11) are the worst playoff teams in terms of scrum discipline this season.

Will any of this have a bearing on the playoff results? It has the potential to, especially in a tight contest. There is no doubt the New Zealand teams in particular will be focussed on reducing their penalty counts this weekend. Regardless of whether teams take shots or not, penalties have the effect of stifling flow, especially when a team is looking to attack.

That said, let’s return to that original adage. We’ll leave you with a look at the try differential this season and let you make your own conclusion about which teams will advance to the semifinals.

All numbers supplied by 3N Rugby

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J
Jon 2 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

This is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?

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j
john 5 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

But here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.

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A
Adrian 7 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause

15 Go to comments
T
Trevor 9 hours ago
Will forgotten Wallabies fit the Joe Schmidt model?

Thanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.

21 Go to comments
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