‘I'm more nervous about Canada than I would be New Zealand’: How can England beat Canada?

So it’s confirmed, old news by now, but the 2025 Rugby World Cup final will be played out between Canada and England with New Zealand, England’s nemesis when it comes to World Cups, playing in the third place play-off against France, so is this good or bad news for the Red Roses‘ title hopes?

One player who has played the Black Ferns a fair few times including in a home World Cup final and lost, is former Red Rose Kat Merchant.

However, despite the losses she has suffered at the hands of the Black Ferns as a player, the former England wing believes the opposition England will face at Twickenham in two days’ time in Canada, is a tougher side to beat in their current form than the Black Ferns.

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“I worry now that England relax and go, ‘oh, we don’t have to play New Zealand,’ because New Zealand were 100% complacent against Canada in the semis,” said the 58-time capped winger.

“They would never have played like that if that was England in a semi and they obviously got pumped, so we need England to rock up with the same mentality of playing the Black Ferns.

“Saying that, I think England would beat the Black Ferns in a final. And I think that actually Canada is a stronger competitor. So although there’s some people saying they’re relieved, I’m not, I’m more nervous about Canada than I would be about New Zealand.”

Much has been made of Canada’s style of play with their French head coach Kevin Rouet imparting his outside the box thinking and creativity to a team who are bonded by a shared cause of awakening the sport of rugby in their country and proving they don’t deserve the ‘underdog’ or ‘dark horse’ tag any more.

Merchant demonstrates this point by listing where Canada could get the better of England.

“Canada have a strong start. Throughout the tournament they’ve come out really, really fast and sometimes England are a little slow to start and teams have scored against them first. They then don’t score again, but they get in early and then England switch on.

“Canada’s speed of ball has been top in the tournament. They are just so dangerous in that area. The other thing as well is that their pack is incredible. Justine Pelletier at nine (in the semi-final) was outstanding. I think she really runs the game well. They’re an all-round threat, but especially their start and speed of ball.”

A lot of people are talking about England’s forwards and their tendency to go to their driving maul when times get tough. But Canada have shown throughout the tournament that they are also a huge threat from set piece, as Merchant agrees:

“England used to absolutely dominate in those areas. Their pack is the best pack in the world. But Canada and how they’re performing at the minute, their pack aren’t getting bullied by England, whereas every other nation, New Zealand and France, all of them would get bullied by that England pack.

“However, England can do it for 80. I don’t know if Canada can keep that pace of play for 80 minutes. That would have to be a worry as a coach. If Canada’s pack stands up to England’s driving maul, then what’s the plan B for the Red Roses? Because the backs haven’t quite been firing yet, they have some of the best players in the world in that back line…but they’ve not been firing.”

The lack of cohesiveness in England’s back line has been a bit of a head scratcher for England fans throughout this tournament, and despite some stunning individual tries from the likes of Ellie Kildunne, many feel it is still yet to click, and the question is, is it likely to fall into place against a team like Canada in a final?

Merchant puts forward her argument as for why the fluidity of the Red Roses attack hasn’t materialised.

“With the backs when I watched the opening USA game I was just like ‘oh, okay, they’re a little bit rusty.’ France didn’t show up for the warm-up game, Spain, they just weren’t an opposition. England were running in unopposed. So I think they came into the World Cup undercooked.

“I don’t know if it’s because England is such a dominant pack and the backs are used to having really quick ball available to them. So maybe, you know, individuals can carry a bit longer before they pass it. But what England are facing is fantastic line speed and not getting as quick ball.

“So that pace, as it goes down the line is just getting more and more pressure on it and then people are overrunning, it’s all just timing issues. It’s baffling to watch it. Hopefully they are saving it for the final.”

As the saying goes, no one cares how you win if you win. And despite England not fully hitting their straps so far this tournament, there are many areas that England can hurt Canada.

“England usually have a great second half, especially with the subs they have coming on, they can be like really dangerous in that end part of the game.

“Canada against New Zealand were fantastic. And they got enough of a lead, but the second half, they switched off slightly which they cannot afford to do against England, because England have a stronger second half.

“Canada’s speed of ball won them the match against the Black Ferns. New Zealand weren’t ready for it. Canada picked through the middle. Now, the danger for Canada is that England are the best jackling team, players like Hannah Botterman and Meg Jones, if they play that quickly and they get isolated, there’s going to be jackal turnovers.

Head-to-Head

Last 5 Meetings

Wins

0

Draws

0

Wins

5

Average Points scored

15

36

First try wins

60%

Home team wins

60%

“So Canada will need a plan B against England. They have so much belief that they can do it. And that makes Canada dangerous. They’ve always been good. I don’t think they necessarily had the belief before that they do now in this squad. They’re turning up on Saturday to win. There is no doubt that they’re happy they made the final.

“I also don’t think England has shown their hand yet, because they haven’t. England is so good that they could play at 60% and beat any other team apart from Canada. So that’s where the danger lies because they haven’t shown up past 60% yet and it’s been enough so it doesn’t matter. But they have to play at 100% at this final. They have to play at their best to beat Canada.”

When it comes to predicting the final, it’s a hard one to call. England have beaten Canada in the two recent WXV 1 tournaments and in the 2022 World Cup semi-final.

However, general opinions seems to agree that Canada have put the best performances in across the tournament and have been the most consistent.

“If you start to ask people (who will win), it’s 50:50 what people think. In my opinion, if both teams play their best rugby, England win. If England don’t play their best rugby, Canada win.

“People have ignored Canada for whatever reason, and now no one can ignore them because that performance they put in (against New Zealand). I feel it could be one of those finals that people talk about forever and that would just be amazing.”