‘If you lose…’: Why Wallabies’ Spring Tour will shape 2027 World Cup Draw

With the 2027 Men’s Rugby World Cup Draw taking place in a couple of months, the next five Tests couldn’t be more important for the Wallabies, as Morgan Turinui explained ahead of Australia’s clash with Japan on Saturday.

Two-time defending World Cup winners South Africa currently sit in pole position on the world rankings, with New Zealand and Ireland rounding out the top three. France, England and Argentina occupy sought-after spots in the top six, with Australia in seventh.

If the Wallabies want to avoid an international rugby heavyweight like the Springboks or All Blacks in the pool stage, finishing in the top six is a must. That makes every match of their 2025 Spring Tour crucial, starting with Eddie Jones’ Japan in Tokyo.

The Wallabies will also take on England at Twickenham’s Allianz Stadium, Italy for the first time since Dave Rennie’s coaching reign, Ireland at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin, and France at Stade de France in Saint-Denis on November 23.

Former Wallabies centre Turinui previewed the Spring Tour and the importance of world rankings ahead of the pool draw on December 3, saying this weekend’s clash with Japan is a must-win for the Aussies.

“If you’re in the top six then it just helps your ranking for that first round of 16,” Turinui said on Stan Sport’s Wallabies Spring Tour Preview.

“We’re going to be in Pool A. If you end up coming second in Pool A, you should be playing someone second from the other pool, but there’s a chance you’d play someone first from the other pool.

“It looks manageable. It looks good if you’re in the top six but it gets tough elsewise. If you lose to Japan then you forget about the top six, it’s all over.”

Japan pose an intriguing task for the Wallabies, with coach Jones selecting eight uncapped players in the squad for a training camp earlier this month. Former Australia U20s lock Harry Hockings was among those chosen in the 40-player group.

The Brave Blossoms are looking to return to winning ways after falling to the Flying Fijians in the Pacific Nations Cup Final last month. It’s a similar story for the Wallabies, who are hoping to bounce back after back-to-back defeats to the All Blacks.

With coach Joe Schmidt looking over the team, the Wallabies have claimed some big wins over the last 12 months, including a famous 42-37 triumph over England at Twickenham’s Allianz Stadium during last year’s Autumn Nations Series.

The Wallabies started their 2025 campaign with a last-gasp win over Fiji before beating the British & Irish Lions in the third Test of their series, and later defeating the Springboks at Johannesburg’s Emirates Airline Park and Los Pumas in Townsville.

But as former Wallabies scrum-half Nick Phipps explained, the Brave Blossoms pose a new challenge altogether under Jones.

“Well obviously, the big Eddie Jones personality, but secondly, he’s gone through a big overhaul in Japan,” Phipps added.

“Traditionally, you’ve always thought of Japan as a little bit small, fast, plays quick footy but small, and he’s gone on a real, real spree of getting big players in. His forward pack’s starting to look really good.

“Might see Harry Hockings playing… They’ve got Michael Leitch there, [Warner] Dearns… they’ve got a big forward pack now.”