How Los Pumas Could Perhaps, Maybe, Beat The All Blacks This Weekend
The Pumas are looking to chalk up their first victory over the All Blacks at Waikato Stadium this weekend. Scotty Stevenson says the Argentinians need to disrupt the Kiwi side’s lineout dominance to have any hope of success.
The Pumas roll into Hamilton this week to face an All Blacks side that has mastered the percentages. If the Argentineans have any chance of victory, they must improve their set piece – and do more with what they have.
While the rest of the rugby world still rages like a rat in a cage over the non-citing of Owen Franks and the perceived special treatment of the All Blacks in rugby’s judicial process, the All Blacks themselves will line up at Waikato Stadium confident that all the wailing and gnashing of teeth has done little more than obscure the obvious: they simply have the jump over other teams at lineout time – if you’ll excuse the pun.
The lineout has become the biggest weapon in the All Blacks arsenal. The team won 79 of its 84 throws during the 2015 Rugby World Cup, and stole a tournament high 15 throws to boot. They have rolled into the new international season with the rest of the field grasping at air.
The lineout is fundamentally a better attacking option than the scrum. For starters, all players are on their feet, as opposed to having their heads buried between the legs of their team mates. Attacking and defensive lines are farther apart, variation in lineout plays allow for more options in terms of drive, pass, kick or run, and there is unarguably a greater chance of contested possession, as the All Blacks have demonstrated over recent seasons.
The statistics back this up. Of the 20 tries scored so far in the Rugby Championship, eight have come directly from lineout (compared to just two from scrum). The All Blacks have scored four tries from lineouts and a further try from a lineout steal – far and away the most of any of the four sides. Australia and South Africa have scored just one apiece from lineouts, with the latter also scoring one from a steal.
Argentina, to get to the original point, have yet to score one from either their own throw or the opposition’s. And that is a problem for the big Pumas pack. For all their industry, they can’t convert. Argentina have won an average of 11 lineouts per match (the same number as the All Blacks, and a tournament high), with just one lineout concession per match and yet, nada.
The creation of opportunities is seemingly not the problem for the Argentinians: the taking of them is. If the lineout statistics are cause for concern in the Pumas camp, their use of turnover ball certainly should be.
Again this is where the All Blacks manage to do more than the Argentinians, despite the fact they win fewer turnovers per game. In fact, the All Blacks have won fewer turnovers (6.5 per game) than any other team in the first two rounds of the Rugby Championship, while conceding the most (18.5 per game). That would be an alarming for the All Blacks but for the fact they are the ONLY team so far in the tournament to score a try from a turnover. They have scored three.
Compounding the concern for the Argentinians will be the increased defensive workload they will be forced to endure this weekend. They head into the match having been forced to make just 101 t tackles per game against the South Africans, and they missed 20 of those. The All Blacks forced the Australians to make 156 per game, and the Wallabies missed an excruciatingly bad 33 of those. Extrapolating the percentage of tackles made to missed, and on the evidence of the first two games, the Argentinians would not fare much better.
If there are silver linings in the numbers for Argentina they come in jerseys 8 and 9 where the battles between Facundo Isa and Kieran Read and Martin Landajo and Aaron Smith may go some way to deciding which side can control the tempo of the match. Isa leads all carriers this Rugby Championship and trails only Beauden Barrett in terms of metres run. Landajo for his part must control the exit of the Argentinians, and was in full control against the South Africans in the last test. Harassing Smith at the breakdown must be his defensive focus. Watch the All Blacks force him onto the left foot behind the defensive ruck. A tip: weak foot box kicks are an Argentinean frailty.
Never before have the Pumas defeated the All Blacks, and all expectations are that fruitless search for a win will continue at Waikato Stadium (where the All Blacks have lost just once). The only hope is that the Argentinians have spent the week working on their lineouts, and learning how to make their tackles. If they’ve done that, we may just see a contest.
Comments on RugbyPass
Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
6 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
6 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
2 Go to commentsLike others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
6 Go to commentsharry potter is set in stone. he creates stability and finishes well. exactly what schmidt likes. he’s the ben smith of australian rugby. i think it could quite easily be potter toole and kellaway for the foreseeable future.
5 Go to commentsThis is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to commentsWhat a load of bollocks. The author has forgotten to mention the fact that the Crusaders have a huge injury toll with top world class players out. Not to mention the fact that they are obviously in a transition period. No this will not spark a slow death for NZ rugby, but it does mean there will be a new Super Rugby champion. Anyone who knows anything about NZ rugby knows that there is some serious talent here, it just isn’t all at the Crusaders.
6 Go to commentsI wouldn’t spend the time on Nawaqanitawase! No point in having him filling in a jersey when he’s committed to leave Union. Give the jersey to a young prospect who will be here in the future.
5 Go to commentsIt was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
7 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
29 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
2 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to comments