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Has the Super Rugby final come a week early in Christchurch?
And then there were four.
The Crusaders, Hurricanes, Jaguares and Brumbies have fought tooth and nail to find themselves only two matches away from being crowned Super Rugby champions.
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These four sides have, without question, been the best performers in the competition in 2019 and have all fairly earned their spots in the semi-finals.
The Crusaders topped the log and were bested only twice this year. They’re also the top points scorers and the best defensive side in Super Rugby.
Fellow New Zealand-side the Hurricanes won the most games of any team this season, notching up twelve in total.
The Jaguares, who are playing in their first Super Rugby semi-final, started the season slowly but have now won nine out of their last ten matches.
Australia conference winners the Brumbies dropped just one game at home in 2019 and have won their past six games in a row, giving them the best winning streak of any Super Rugby side this year.
All four teams have shown creativity on attack and strong resolve on defence, but two will find themselves looking back on Monday thinking about the season that could have been.
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Both semi-finals will take place on Saturday (local time), with the Jaguares first hosting the Brumbies in Buenos Aires before the Hurricanes travel to Christchurch to take on last year’s champion Crusaders.
Semi-Final 1: Jaguares v Brumbies
The Jaguares have been the feel-good story of the season. They’ve topped the South African conference (despite, obviously, not being South African) and despite a few growing pains in their first couple of seasons, are now clearly one of the most fearsome sides in Super Rugby.
In 2018 the Jaguares made the quarter-finals for the first time but were knocked out by eventual finalists the Lions. 2019 has seen them go one step further, securing their first home finals match as well as making the top four for the first time.
The Brumbies, in contrast, have made the finals of Super Rugby more seasons than not and are historically the best performing team in Australia. Some of their squad members, including the recently returned Christian Leali’ifano, actually played in the 2013 final against the Chiefs – who the Jaguares knocked out last weekend.
2018 was an unusually poor year for the Brumbies but they’ve bounced back remarkably in 2019 and will travel to Buenos Aires with high confidence that they can knock over the favourites.
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Whilst these two sides have only played each other three times, the Jaguares do have an exceptionally successful record against Australia opposition. In the 12 games that that Jaguares have played against Australia teams, the Jaguares have come out trumps nine times. Curiously, all three of their losses have been in Buenos Aires. Only once have the Jaguares lost at home this year – against the Chiefs early in the season – and they rectified that loss last weekend.
Christian Lealiifano will be the key man for the Brumbies. His performance over the year could well see him reinstated as the first-choice Wallabies flyhalf. A solid game in Argentina could certainly sway Michael Cheika to that way of thinking.
Hooker Agustin Creevy is always a key figure for the Jaguares, but perhaps halfback Tomas Cubelli will be the most important player on the field. Cubelli, with almost 70 international caps to his name, spent two seasons with the Brumbies and will have an intimate understanding of how the side from Canberra run their operations. His insight could prove exceptionally useful for the Jaguares.
Recent results:
2019: JAG 20 – 15 BRU (Buenos Aires)
2018: JAG 25 – 20 BRU (Canberra)
2017: BRU 39 – 15 JAG (Buenos Aires)
Squads:
Jaguares: Emiliano Boffelli, Sabastian Cancelliere, Matias Orlando, Jeronimo de la Fuente (c), Matias Moroni, Joaquin Diaz Bonilla, Tomas Cubelli, Javier Ortega Desio, Marcos Kremer, Pablo Matera, Tomas Lavanini, Guido Petti, Santiago Medrano, Agustin Creevy, Mayco Vivas. Reserves: Julian Montoya, Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, Enrique Pieretto, Tomas Lezana, Francisco Gorrissen, Felipe Ezcurra, Domingo Miotti, Santiago Carreras.
Brumbies: Tom Banks, Henry Speight, Tevita Kuridrani, Irae Simone, Toni Pulu, Christian Lealiifano (c), Joe Powell, Lachlan McCaffrey, Tom Cusack, Rob Valetini, Sam Carter, Rory Arnold, Allan Alaalatoa, Folau Fainga’a, Scott Sio. Reserves: Connal McInerney, James Slipper, Les Makin, Darcy Swain, Murray Douglas, Jahrome Brown, Matt Lucas, Tom Wright.
Semi-Final 2: Crusaders v Hurricanes
New Zealand’s top two teams for 2019 were once again the best performing teams of the year but will be forced to face off in a semi-final due to Super Rugby’s finals structure.
Perhaps calling this match the ‘real final’ does a huge disservice to the Jaguares and the Brumbies. There’s good reason, however, to expect that the winner of Saturday evening’s match will go on to win the crown for 2019.
The Crusaders looked unbeatable early in the season and there were expectations that the Canterbury side would run away with the competition. While the red-and-blacks did seal top spot before the final week of the round-robin kicked off, the team did stutter a bit as the season went on. Draws against the Stormers and the Sharks were followed by poor performances against the Blues and Chiefs – though they did bounce back to crush the Rebels in their final regular season fixture before getting the business done against the Highlanders last weekend.
The Hurricanes certainly looked more assured in the latter half of the year with their home loss against the Jaguares their sole defeat in the second half of Super Rugby 2019. The Hurricanes’ other two defeats of the year, however, both came at the hands of the Crusaders – and they were both comfortable victories for the Cantabrians.
Much will depend on how well the 9-10-12 axis of TJ Perenara, Beauden Barrett and Ngani Laumape perform tomorrow night. Laumape, in particular, was underwhelming in the Hurricane’s close-shave win over the Bulls in Wellington last week. If the midfield wrecking-ball can get the Hurricanes some momentum then Perenara and Barrett will have plenty more time to pull the strings.
The Crusaders will likely try to strange the Hurricanes in the forwards. Per usual, the Hurricanes tight-five is somewhat lacking – especially when lined up next to the Crusaders. The Hurricanes backs won’t be able to create much if their team can’t garner any possession.
It’s been eight years since the Hurricanes last failed to record a win against the Crusaders in any given calendar year. Of course, the Crusaders are still yet to lose a home finals match. One of those streaks is going to be broken tomorrow night.
Recent results:
2019: CRU 32 – 8 HUR (Wellington)
2019: CRU 38 – 22 HUR (Christchurch)
2018: CRU 30 – 12 HUR (Christchurch)
2018: CRU 23 – 13 HUR (Christchurch)
2018: HUR 29 – 19 CRU (Wellington)
2017: HUR 31 – 22 CRU (Wellington)
2017: CRU 20 – 12 HUR (Christchurch)
Squads:
Crusaders: David Havili, Sevu Reece, Jack Goodhue, Ryan Crotty, George Bridge, Richie Mo’unga, Bryn Hall, Kieran Read, Matt Todd, Whetukamokamo Douglas, Samuel Whitelock (c), Scott Barrett, Owen Franks, Codie Taylor, Joe Moody. Reserves: Andrew Makalio, George Bower, Michael Alaalatoa, Luke Romano, Jordan Taufua, Mitchell Drummond, Mitchell Hunt, Braydon Ennor.
Hurricanes: Jordie Barrett, Salesi Rayasi, Peter Umaga-Jensen, Ngani Laumape, Ben Lam, Beauden Barrett, TJ Perenara, Gareth Evans, Ardie Savea, Reed Prinsep, Isaia Walker-Leawere, James Blackwell, Jeff To’omaga Allen, Dane Coles (c), Toby Smith. Reserves: Asafo Aumua, Xavier Numia, Ben May, Kane Le’aupepe, Vaea Fifita, Richard Judd, James Marshall, Jonah Lowe.
See what Ngani Laumape can do on a good day:
Comments on RugbyPass
Exeter were thumped by 38 points. And they only had to hop on a train.
29 Go to commentsI am De Groot.
1 Go to commentsHad hoped you might write an article on this game, Nick. It’s a good one. Things have not gone as smoothly for ROG since beating Leinster last year at the Aviva in the CC final. LAR had the Top 14 Final won till Raymond Rhule missed a simple tackle on the excellent Ntamack, and Toulouse reaped the rewards of just staying in the fight till the death. Then the disruption of the RWC this season. LAR have not handled that well, but they were not alone, and we saw Pau heading the Top 14 table at one stage early season. I would think one of the reasons for the poor showing would have to be that the younger players coming through, and the more mature amongst the group outside the top 25/30, are not as strong as would be hoped for. I note that Romain Sazy retired at the end of last season. He had been with LAR since 2010, and was thus one of their foundation players when they were promoted to Top 14. Records show he ended up with 336 games played with LAR. That is some experience, some rock in the team. He has been replaced for the most part by Ultan Dillane. At 30, Dillane is not young, but given the chances, he may be a fair enough replacement for Sazy. But that won’be for more than a few years. I honestly know little of the pathways into the LAR setup from within France. I did read somewhere a couple of years ago that on the way up to Top 14, the club very successfully picked up players from the academies of other French teams who were not offered places by those teams. These guys were often great signings…can’t find the article right now, so can’t name any….but the Tadgh Beirne type players. So all in all, it will be interesting to see where the replacements for all the older players come from. Only Lleyd’s and Rhule from SA currently, both backs. So maybe a few SA forwards ?? By contrast, Leinster have a pretty clear line of good players coming through in the majority of positions. Props maybe a weak spot ? And they are very fleet footed and shrewd in appointing very good coaches. Or maybe it is also true that very good coaches do very well in the Leinster setup. So, Nick, I would fully concurr that “On the evidence of Saturday’s semi-final between the two clubs, the rebuild in the Bay of Biscay is going to take longer than it is on the east coast of Ireland”
6 Go to commentsWhat was the excuse for the other knockout blowouts then? Does the result not prove the Saints were just so much better? Wise call to put your eggs in one basket when you’ve got 2 comps simultaneously finishing.
29 Go to commentsReally hope Kuruvoli and his partner rock the Canes.
1 Go to commentsI wonder what impact Samson has had on their attack, as the team seems less prone to trundle it up the middle, take the tackle and then trundle it up again. I lost faith in the coach last year as the Rebelss looked like a 2nd/3rd rate South African team. I also disliked Gordon standing back, often ignored as the forward battle went on and on. Maybe its our Aussie way of not getting off our A***’s until the enemy is at the gate.
83 Go to commentsThanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
83 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
4 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
29 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
4 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
4 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
13 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
6 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
6 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
6 Go to comments